Early Men’s Final Four preview: Arizona-Michigan, UConn-Illinois predictions

The 2026 men’s Final Four is set!

UConn will open Saturday’s national semifinals against Illinois after pulling off a comeback against Duke in the Elite Eight, followed by a battle between No. 1 seeds Arizona and Michigan in Indianapolis. Who do ESPN’s college basketball experts predict will advance to the championship game on April 6?

Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down how each team reached the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament – ​​and their keys to advancing to the title game. Find their predictions below.

FINAL FOUR PREVIEW

8:49 p.m. ET, Saturday

What you need to know about Arizona

#1 Factor That Helped Arizona Reach the Final Four: The Wildcats’ relentlessness in the paint was unprecedented, and it carried them when it counted in the NCAA Tournament.

For the season, Arizona ranked fifth in the nation in paint points, averaging over 42. It also led the nation in free throw attempts with nearly 20 points per game at the line. Against another paint-dominant Arkansas team in the Sweet 16, Arizona had perhaps the most efficient interior performance ever seen in March: The Wildcats had 60 paint points and 30 points at the free throw line, the most points combined in an NCAA tournament game in the last 20 years. Then, after Purdue faced them in the first half of their Elite Eight showdown, the Wildcats played with increased urgency and imposed their will in the second half. The Wildcats finished with 40 points in the paint and 20 points at the free throw line, outscoring the Boilermakers by a total of 28 points in those areas.

It’s not just about Koa Peat and Motiejus Krivas’ goal or Tobe Awaka’s offensive rebound; it’s also the relentless attack of Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov. Coach Tommy Lloyd preaches paint points, and it shows in every aspect of his team’s offense. –Borzello

The keys to Arizona vs. Michigan: It will be the ultimate force-on-strength battle in the paint, but Arizona is more reliable — and better — at dominating the glass and finishing at the rim. That’s the key here. The Wildcats are top five nationally in paint points per game and offensive rebound percentage, and they lead the nation in free throw attempts per game. Michigan, meanwhile, ranks in the top five in 2-point defense, block rate and average 2-point attempt distance on defense. The Wolverines also limit their fouls. Can Arizona continue to control the paint against a team that can match it from a size and physicality standpoint?

It’s the same situation at the other end of the field. Michigan is shooting over 61 percent inside the arc and ranks in the top 20 in paint points and second chance points per game. Arizona will have to win the interior battle on both sides. –Borzello

What you need to know about Michigan

#1 Factor That Helped Michigan Reach the Final Four: The Wolverines can quickly shift gears and reach a level that few teams are capable of matching. Their Elite Eight win over Tennessee was arguably the most complete game we’ve seen from an NCAA Tournament team. Michigan outscored the Volunteers 48-26 in the first half and held them to just 85 points per 100 possessions. With 10:52 left in the first half, Tennessee had a 16-15 lead over Michigan; the Wolverines then went on a 33-10 rally to end the half. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes had his head in his hands. What can you do when Michigan plays this way?

The Wolverines are big, have stars and play great defense – and when it’s time to stand strong and fight, no team is better. This is why Michigan is going to Indianapolis. — Medical calf

The keys to Michigan vs. Arizona: The Wolverines will have to force the Wildcats to shoot outside of the paint and neutralize all paths to the rim. Arizona is a really tough team to play against when they can get downhill, penetrate and attack teams in the lane. The Wildcats are in the top 10 nationally in fouls committed and getting to the free throw line: that’s been their bread and butter, and they’re better at that tactic than any team in Indianapolis.

On offense, Michigan needs to stretch Arizona’s defense by shooting well from the 3-point line. All four of the Wildcats’ NCAA Tournament opponents have struggled from beyond the arc, but the Wolverines have made 40 percent of their 3s since March 1. If Arizona is forced to focus on what Michigan is doing on the perimeter, it will create more space for Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. to operate in the lane.

Still, against such a strong Arizona team, Michigan might need Lendeborg to break out with a high-level performance comparable to the 27-point effort he produced against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. — Medical calf

Arizona vs. Michigan Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 82-80
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 78-76

6:09 p.m. ET, Saturday

What you need to know about UConn

#1 Factor That Helped UConn Reach the Final Four: Tarris Reed Jr. and the experience needed to maintain the type of patience the Huskies needed to deal with a Duke team that had a 19-point lead in the first half got them here. Three players in the starting rotation have been in coach Dan Hurley’s system for at least two years, a rarity in today’s landscape. Illinois will be the only team in Indianapolis that can match that.

Hurley is as good at recruiting as he is at retention. Freshman Braylon Mullins had an up and down season, seemingly never hitting his stride consistently, but he was a five-star recruit for a reason. When Hurley turned to Mullins, he made the biggest 3-pointer of his life with 0.4 seconds left to send UConn to the Final Four.

The Huskies also held Duke to 100 points per 100 possessions in the second half after the Blue Devils scored 147 points per 100 possessions in the first half. UConn kept fighting and won. — Medical calf

UConn’s keys against Illinois: Illinois was the best offensive team in the country, but it also played elite defense against Houston in the Sweet 16 and Iowa in the Elite Eight. UConn will need to resolve this issue. The Huskies have a size allowing them to play a restrictive zone which has stifled opponents. Houston and Iowa both made less than 40 percent of their shots inside the arc against Illinois, so UConn’s game plan has to start with Reed, who has scored at least 20 points in three of his last four games. The Huskies’ big man was dominant against Duke, and he’ll need to be excellent against Illinois in the post if the Fighting Illini can’t get comfortable in that zone. The Huskies will also need to exploit pockets of the Illinois defense; Reed’s production will be key to achieving that.

On defense, it all starts with the guard of Keaton Wagler. The Huskies have several guards they can throw at the 6-foot-5 projected NBA lottery pick. They can’t allow him to put up big numbers.

Protecting the rim against one of the biggest teams in Indianapolis will also be important. — Medical calf

What you need to know about Illinois

#1 Factor That Helped Illinois Reach the Final Four: The Illini’s offense is one of the most efficient in KenPom history, but it’s their defense that sparked this run in Indianapolis. They held VCU to 55 points and 0.83 points per possession in the Round of 32, Houston to 55 points and 0.94 points per possession in the Sweet 16 and Iowa to 59 points and 1.08 points per possession in the Elite Eight. They protected the rim and paint at an incredibly high level, limiting the three aforementioned opponents to under 48 percent inside the arc. (Iowa had just seven 2-pointers Saturday.)

It’s a dramatic improvement from their defensive performance late in the regular season, when the Illini saw six of their last nine opponents score at least 1.17 points per possession, suffering five of their eight losses during that stretch. Their offense hasn’t missed a beat, but their defense suddenly looking like a top-10 unit has been a season-changing development for coach Brad Underwood’s team. –Borzello

The keys to Illinois vs. UConn: The biggest key will be limiting Reed – or getting him in trouble. Reed has been one of the most dominant big men in this NCAA Tournament, and his ability to score at the rim in single coverage saved the Huskies’ inconsistent perimeter shooting. But with Eric Reibe not as effective as he was earlier in the season, UConn takes a big hit on both ends of the court when Reed is out.

The other key will be the 3-point battle. The Huskies have made double-digit 3s once since Feb. 18, but they haven’t given up double-digit 3s in that same span. Illinois attempts 3s at a higher rate than almost any team in the country, while UConn’s shooters — Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Mullins — have been inconsistent. The Illini could surpass the Huskies. –Borzello

UConn vs. Illinois Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: UConn, 74-72
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn, 77-73