Florida Republicans slice and dice congressional districts: How a new map could cost Democrats seats

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — As President Donald Trump’s poll numbers fade, struggling Florida Democrats were hoping this year would be an opportunity to gain ground in the state.

But they are now looking at the possibility of losing up to four seats in the House of Representatives in the midterms due to a new congressional map passed this week by the Republican-controlled Legislature.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said redistricting would reflect Florida’s population growth and political trends. Democrats called it a power grab by Trump, who urged Republicans to redraw maps across the country.

The changes use both packing and cracking, the main tools of gerrymandering. Clustering involves concentrating like-minded voters in fewer precincts, or in a single precinct, to minimize their overall impact on multiple precincts. Cracking involves spreading like-minded voters into more districts, making it more difficult for them to influence a single district’s elections.

Under the new lines, there are 24 districts in which Trump won by double digits in 2024, according to analysts from both parties. If the Republicans win them all, that would represent a gain of four seats.

While the map is sure to face legal challenges, here’s a look at how the new boundaries affect Florida’s currently Democratic-controlled districts.

Pinellas and Hillsborough counties were, not long ago, considered two of the most populous swing counties in American politics. Voters in and around Tampa and St. Petersburg served as a barometer in the presidential elections.

Currently, the central metro area is divided between the right-wing district represented by Republican Anna Paulina Luna and the left-leaning district represented by Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor. The new map divides that into three districts, all leaning Republican, and Castor’s seat now includes more conservative rural areas.

She called the new models “patently illegal” because of Florida’s state constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering. But she said, “No matter how the new districts are drawn, I will continue to fight for the families of Tampa Bay. »

Luna, a top Democratic target in November, captured more Republican-leaning districts, but Washington Democrats said they could still win the seat given Trump’s lagging popularity.

Currently, Democrats Darren Soto and Maxwell Frost have adjacent districts in and around Orlando, with Frost’s concentrated in the city and Soto’s covering Kissimmee and stretching south and east across much of Osceola County.

From now on, the metropolitan core of Orlando will become a single district whose Democratic future is virtually assured. Meanwhile, other Orlando neighborhoods will become part of a separate, larger, more Republican district.

Frost criticized the design to pair city residents with voters who live two hours away. “This is how hard DeSantis’ mapmakers had to work to dilute voter impact in Orange County and turn this district red,” he said on social media.

Soto, who is Puerto Rican and now represents many Puerto Ricans, attacked the governor.

“DeSantis has declared war on Florida’s 1.3 million Puerto Ricans,” he wrote on social media. “We are American citizens, our people have served and died for this country, and we vote.”

The new map singles out a district with a large black population in South Florida that had been represented by Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick before her recent resignation during a House ethics investigation into her use of campaign funds. The district was originally designated to comply with provisions of the Voting Rights Act that the U.S. Supreme Court effectively gutted on Wednesday.

DeSantis described the district as a blatant race-based gerrymander, most of which is located inland while two arms extend into Democratic coastal areas.

Now the district will essentially be wiped out, spread across multiple districts.

Reps. Lois Frankel and Jared Moskowitz currently have adjacent districts covering swaths of Palm Beach and Broward counties. Both are slightly Democratic.

The new map creates a more Democratic district anchored in West Palm Beach, mixing some Frankel voters and those formerly represented by Cherfilus-McCormick. It divides Moskowitz’s current territory into three districts, a bigger blow to his re-election chances than Frankel would face.

Parkland, where Moskowitz lives, will be located in a more Republican district that stretches across the state to Naples. Moskowitz, a top target of national Republicans even before redistricting, has not said which district he would choose for re-election.

Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, and Frederica Wilson currently represent the neighboring districts south of the Frankel and Moskowitz twinning.

Wasserman-Schultz owns north Broward, including Weston, where she lives, as well as Hollywood, Pembroke Pines and part of Miramar. Wilson, who lives in Miami Gardens, represents the second-most Democratic district on the outgoing map, along with south Broward and parts of Miami-Dade.

Now there will be only one Democratic district concentrated in Miami-Dade, and Wilson will be able to stay in power there. Between this new Miami-Dade district and Frankel’s Palm Beach County base lies a new, heavily Democratic Broward district. Wasserman-Schultz doesn’t live in this part of Broward. She will have to decide whether to run there or choose one of the new, more Republican districts that Moskowitz is also considering.

Wasserman-Schultz called the redesign a “purely partisan project” that “violates state law.”

Perhaps a positive for Democrats nationally, the changes in South Florida have not significantly strengthened Republican representatives. María Elvira Salazar, who lives in Coral Gables, or Carlos Giménez, another Miami-Dade lawmaker. Democrats plan to continue targeting them in this year’s midterms.