Prices have continued to rise in Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. [BBC]
“Life is getting more and more expensive,” complains Alexander, a Moscow-based advertising specialist working for a large company.
In one month, her monthly food budget increased by more than 22%, from 35,000 rubles (£330; $450) to 43,000 (£406; $555).
As Russia’s economy oscillates between stagnation and decline, ordinary Russians are beginning to feel the effects of the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine as it approaches its fourth anniversary.
The price of almost all basic necessities has increased in local supermarkets, from eggs and chicken fillets to seasonal vegetables, Alexander noted. We changed the names of everyone we spoke to for this piece.
Even his daily gift on the way to work – an Americano bought at a local cafe – suddenly jumped 26%, from 230 to 290 rubles.
Russians have noticed a sharp increase in food prices since the start of the year [Getty Images]
Prices have risen steadily in Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, driven by a federal budget dominated by the war effort and the defense industry.
This led to rapid economic growth and improved living standards across the country.
So far, high levels of inflation have remained largely unnoticed by the general population, particularly in large cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. Significant spending masked the growing economic consequences of the war, as well as Western sanctions and the exodus of foreign investment from Russia.
This rapid economic growth slowed sharply in 2025, and as wages could no longer keep up with inflation, rising prices began to hit people’s pockets.
Then, at the start of 2026, supermarket prices jumped 2.3% in less than a month, according to data from the Russian statistical service Rosstat.
Everything became more expensive at the beginning of the year: meat, milk, salt, flour, potatoes, pasta, bananas, soap, toothpaste, socks, laundry detergent and many medicines too.
Since 2019, every other January, the BBC has purchased the same selection of 59 essential products from the same supermarket chain, Pyaterochka, in Moscow. The basket includes vegetables and fruits, dairy and meat products, canned goods and instant noodles, sweets and drinks, including beer.
In 2024, the basket cost 7,358 rubles (£63; $83). Last month it cost 8,724 rubles (£83; $112), an increase of 18.6%.
This matches Rosstat’s 18.1% measure of overall food inflation accumulated from January 2024 to the end of January 2026.
One of the most notable price increases in our basket was a nearly 15% increase in the price of fruits and vegetables since 2024.
Russia relies on imported fruits and vegetables, so store prices are very sensitive to fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and supply chain disruptions. Both occurred after the start of the war in Ukraine.
At the same time, the price of dairy products – which are typically produced locally – soared 41%, the largest increase in our sample over the past two years. Indeed, Russia’s dairy industry has been hit by rising agricultural costs, expensive loans and a shortage of staff.
The most recent factor influencing the price rise is a two-point increase in VAT, from 20% to 22% since January 1.
The sales tax hike is directly linked to the war in Ukraine, with Russia’s Finance Ministry saying it was necessary to finance the country’s “defense and security.”
Dairy products have seen the biggest price rise in the BBC basket over the last two years [Getty Images]
While Alexander of Moscow told the BBC he was not going to change his eating habits, others say rising food prices have significantly affected their diets and family budgets.
Nadezhda, 68, says she can no longer afford beef and has resorted to cheap varieties of fish.
She and her husband, both retired, live in Moscow on their state pension and extra income. Nadezhda says her entire monthly pension of almost 32,000 rubles (£302; $413) now goes on food.
This means that other spending has been suspended.
They had been saving to repair their car, but recently had to rely on their savings to pay for food. Likewise, buying a new winter jacket for Nadezhda’s husband, which would have cost around 17,000 rubles (£160; $220), will have to wait until next year.
Kristina, a Moscow marketer in her 40s, also had to dip into her savings to buy food last month. She lives with her husband, who is a personal trainer, and says she started paying attention to discounts and noticed other people in supermarkets were doing the same.
“Now I take a very pragmatic approach: not what I want or don’t want to eat, but how much protein is in 100 grams of this product,” says Kristina.
She and her husband can no longer afford to eat out, but even cooking at home, the price of a dinner for two has more than doubled, from around 1,000 rubles (£9.46; $12.92) to more than 2,000 rubles (£18.91; $25.85).
In the summer of 2025, the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabioullina, declared that the economy was close to a “scenario of balanced economic growth rates.”
However, some economists suggest that after a significant slowdown last year, the Russian economy is now at risk of falling into the red.
One of the main risks this year will come from the oil market.
The federal budget relies on high oil prices, but market rates have fallen since the start of this year and no imminent increases are expected.
Russian oil sales have also been affected by the latest US sanctions which have cut off supplies to one of Moscow’s main trading partners, India.
As a result, Russian authorities risk facing a larger budget deficit than expected.
Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India in December last year, Indian imports of Russian crude have fallen since the start of 2026 under pressure from the United States. [Getty Images]
Borrowing is difficult due to high interest rates: few are willing to lend to a country currently at war and known to be unreliable.
This could mean further unpopular measures – either further tax hikes, which would hurt individuals and businesses, or a reduction in budgetary spending, mainly in the public sector. This would slow the economy and further reduce household incomes.
“Overall, there is a trend toward stagnation and possible decline in GDP,” Tatiana Mikhailova, an economist and visiting assistant professor at Penn State University, told the BBC.
So far, there is no indication that the economy is in decline, but she believes there is a good chance that this is happening.
“Every time oil prices fall, a recession is possible in Russia,” she says, although she believes the economy can continue for some time without growth.
This may bring little comfort to ordinary Russians, who will still feel the effects in their pockets.
