‘Foolish’ CSIRO job cuts will mean Australia unable to provide climate projections to global reports, scientists warn | CSIRO

Job cuts at the national science agency mean Australia will no longer be able to submit climate projections to form part of global reports and will have significantly reduced its ability to predict future damage in the country, leading researchers have warned.

Multiple sources have told Guardian Australia that CSIRO plans to lay off a third of the team working on the national climate model which provides projections that governments, councils, industry and farmers rely on to plan for the future.

Top scientists said it would mean Australia would no longer have an international standard climate model to contribute to projections in key assessment reports from the world’s leading climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

CSIRO management is expected to confirm at a staff meeting on Thursday that it is laying off around 100 scientists as part of a plan announced last November to cut between 300 and 350 full-time research positions. This follows the dismissal of 818 support staff last year.

The agency’s chief executive, Doug Hilton, said the latest cuts would be maintained despite the Albanian government’s announcement of $387 million in additional CSIRO funding in last week’s federal budget. The new funds will largely be used to upgrade research buildings and infrastructure, including the Australian Center for Disease Preparedness in Geelong.

About five of 15 CSIRO scientists working on the model known as the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (Access) have been told they risk losing their jobs.

CSIRO management told a Senate inquiry in February that the impact of the cuts would be minimal because around 60 people were working on the climate model. But Andy Hogg, professor of ocean and climate modeling and director of Access-NRI, which supports the development of software that underpins the CSIRO projections, said that was not the case.

“If you look at the core capabilities team of people, it’s between 12 and 15 people, and we understand there are about five that are on duty,” he said. “These reductions will leave us suboptimal in terms of basic climate science capabilities in atmospheric and oceanographic modeling, as well as in understanding the concepts that actually drive our weather and climate. »

Christian Jakob, a professor at Monash University’s School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment and a leading climate modeler, agrees. “It’s a relatively small number of people developing climate models. It’s definitely not 60,” he said. “They’re making sure we have a better model a year from now. This will go away.”

Access is a computer model that draws on international and national data related to the atmosphere, oceans, land and ice to enable simulations of the future. Led by the CSIRO, it provides high-level projections of how the country is likely to evolve under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

The model underpins climate information that scientists, governments, councils, industry, farmers and others use for finer-grained analysis that can shape planning and investment decisions.

Jakob said removing CSIRO’s climate modeling expertise would “remove a core fundamental capability” to prepare for the future. “Australia will no longer be seen as a credible contributor to the international assessment of climate change. Period,” he said. “I feel angry. I’ve been a climate modeler for 30 years. This means I won’t be able to stand up in front of people and say we’re giving the best information possible.”

A CSIRO spokesperson said its climate science capabilities would be retained.

“CSIRO will continue to provide climate data, models and scenarios to manage the impacts of climate change,” they said. “The proposed changes intensify our efforts by reducing activity in selected areas including atmospheric chemistry modeling, Indo-Pacific ocean dynamics and some operational support so we can better align our climate portfolio with our future science priorities and achieve the strongest possible outcomes for Australia.”

But Hogg said there was a risk Australia would not be able to submit projections this year to inform the IPCC’s seventh major assessment report, due in 2028 and 2029.

He said the CSIRO had no plans for how it would continue to meaningfully contribute to future global climate projections beyond this, although Australia is the only country whose modeling is focused on the southern hemisphere. “This capacity will be difficult to rebuild. It would cost twice as much to put it back in place later,” he said.

Jakob said potential consequences include Australia losing the ability to attract top international scientific talent and less ability to understand issues such as what the melting of the giant Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets would mean for Australia’s coastline.

“We need to know how other countries’ climates are changing because that will matter to us…and the question arises whether we can rely on other countries for information like we did before,” he said. “I think it’s a very foolish path to take.”

While scientists criticized the CSIRO decision, researchers – including some within the CSIRO who spoke on condition of anonymity – said the cuts were mainly the result of years of federal governments failing to increase direct funding to the agency in line with rising costs.

CSIRO managers must secure 70% of funding from external sources, usually from industry or another government body, before a new research project is approved.

The Albanian government says the CSIRO receives around $1 billion in recurring annual funding and provided an additional $278 million in 2025 and $387 million over four years in the latest budget. Science Minister Tim Ayres did not respond to questions about cuts to climate modeling capacity.