Glaciers to reach peak rate of extinction in the Alps in eight years | Glaciers

Glaciers in the European Alps will likely reach their peak extinction rate in just eight years, according to a study, with more than 100 expected to melt permanently by 2033. Glaciers in the western United States and Canada are expected to reach their peak loss year less than a decade later, with more than 800 disappearing each year between now and then.

The melting of glaciers caused by human-caused global warming is one of the clearest signs of the climate crisis. Communities around the world have already held funeral ceremonies for missing glaciers, and a global glacier casualty list records the names and stories of those who disappeared.

There are around 200,000 glaciers left in the world, of which around 750 disappear each year. However, research indicates that this rate will accelerate rapidly as emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to be released into the atmosphere.

Current government climate action plans are expected to push global temperatures around 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels, making extreme weather worse. In this scenario, glacier loss would peak at around 3,000 per year in 2040 and stabilize at this rate until 2060. By the end of the century, 80% of today’s glaciers will have disappeared.

In contrast, rapidly reducing carbon emissions to keep global temperature rise to 1.5°C would limit annual losses to around 2,000 per year in 2040, after which the rate would decline.

Previous studies have focused on the volume of ice lost, considering its contribution to sea level rise that threatens coastal cities. However, individual glaciers are also important as water sources and tourist attractions for many communities, and often have spiritual significance for local people. This prompted researchers to analyze how many glaciers are disappearing.

Matthias Huss, senior researcher at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and member of the study team, said: “As glaciologists, we not only model the disappearance of glaciers on a global scale, but we are very directly affected by this loss of glaciers in our daily work. »

As director of Switzerland’s glacier monitoring network, Huss recently declared four extinct, the last of an estimated thousand lost in the country over the past three decades.

Huss also spoke at the funeral of the Pizol glacier in 2019. “More than 250 people went up to this glacier to say goodbye. It was very impressive.”

Such funerals also took place in Iceland, Nepal and elsewhere. “People climb these disappearing glaciers to say goodbye, but also to send a strong signal to the public that this matters to us.”

Many glaciers have spiritual significance, for example Maori culture considers them to be ancestors. Māori political leader Nā Lisa Tumahai visited the Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere melt in 2022 and told the Global Glacier Casualty List: “This mighty glacier, once so physically imposing, is sinking into oblivion. [It] was subjugated, humiliated by the actions of humans.

“To see this giant retreat is to understand impermanence, to understand the real and terrible results of industrialization and climate change. »

The new study, published in Nature Climate Change, analyzed more than 200,000 glaciers using a contour database derived from satellite images. The researchers used three global glacier models to assess their future under different warming scenarios.

Regions where glaciers are smallest and melting most quickly are proving to be the most vulnerable. The study estimates that Central Europe’s 3,200 glaciers would shrink by 87% by 2100 – even if global temperature rise was limited to 1.5°C, and could reach 97% under 2.7°C warming.

In the western United States and Canada, including Alaska, about 70% of the current 45,000 glaciers are expected to disappear at 1.5°C, and more than 90% at 2.7°C. The Caucasus and southern Andes are also expected to suffer devastating losses.

Larger glaciers take longer to melt, with those in Greenland reaching their peak extinction rate around 2063 – losing 40% by 2100 at 1.5°C and 59% at 2.7°C. However, melting is expected to continue beyond 2100.

The researchers said peak loss dates represent more than a numerical milestone. “They mark turning points with profound implications for ecosystems, water resources and cultural heritage,” they wrote. “[It is] a human story of disappearing landscapes, fading traditions and disrupted daily routines.

These transitions also highlighted the urgent need to help communities adapt to changing conditions, they said, as 2 billion people downstream rely on mountain water for their regular supply and food security. Adaptation measures could include new types of agriculture, alternative businesses to replace tourism and even artificial glaciers, which have been tested in Kyrgyzstan.

Dr Arun Bhakta Shrestha, senior advisor at the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development and not part of the study, said: “[The study] highlights how climate decisions today will profoundly influence the future of these vital natural features.

Shrestha said the work provides a valuable perspective on the rapid changes occurring in glacial landscapes and the people who depend on them, while highlighting some limitations, including uncertainty in counting small glaciers covered in debris and a lack of up-to-date data.