In diplomacy, pomp and protocol matter, especially when Trump goes to China

WASHINGTON– From the moment President Donald Trump lands in Beijing on Wednesday, all eyes will be on the spectacle the Chinese government will put on, such as who will line up to greet him, what music will be played and whether Chinese and American children will wave flowers and flags.

In China’s rigidly hierarchical diplomatic world, protocol and ceremony carry weight. Trump’s reception is expected to be warm and designed to flatter him, indicative of Beijing’s tactical approach to a US leader known for his love of pomp, but it is unlikely to top the “state visit plus” extravaganza that President Xi Jinping gave Trump in 2017.

“This reflects greater Chinese confidence in their position, greater skepticism of Trump and the awkwardness of current relations,” said Rush Doshi, CV Starr senior fellow for Asian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and assistant professor of security studies at Georgetown University.

Over the past nine years, China-US relations have moved from engagement to competition and hit a low point during the COVID-19 pandemic and trade wars.

Experts say China’s economic clout and ability to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain has allowed Chinese leaders to negotiate from a position of strength and led the Trump administration to adopt a more pragmatic China policy. And now the war with Iran, which has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and shaken the global economy, has given Xi an advantage heading into the summit.

The war, which began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28, delayed Trump’s visit, originally scheduled for late March. Now, Trump is heading to Beijing for a shorter stay than in 2017, and without first lady Melania Trump.

“The context of this visit is totally different,” said Danny Russell, a former senior US diplomat, who does not expect Beijing to outdo itself this time by receiving Trump. “The program was reduced to one day and stripped down to the essentials.”

But the United States occupies a special place in China’s foreign relations, and China will shower Trump with many pompous ceremonies because Beijing views them as a diplomatic tool, Russell said.

If the 2017 trip is any indication, Trump can expect to step off Air Force One down a staircase covered in a red carpet with gold trim and be greeted by a warm crowd.

The next day, at an official welcome ceremony, he will be greeted by Xi and other Chinese officials, whose rank could be revealing. Trump is then expected to inspect the military honor guards, lined up precisely according to their height, their eyes closely following him and Xi as the two leaders walk down the red carpet. And he will probably receive a 21-gun salute.

“It’s no secret to any government that President Trump responds positively to flattery and spectacle,” Russell said. “The pomp and pageantry are intended to both flatter Trump and appease him, making him more responsive to Chinese demands and reducing the risk of an embarrassing public confrontation. »

Xi will also offer something more, as he has done in previous visits by US presidents. In 2014, it was an evening stroll with former President Barack Obama in the Zhongnanhai leadership compound. In 2017, he hosted a private dinner for Trump at the Palace Museum, on the grounds of the former imperial palace.

This time, the special relationship between Chinese and American leaders will play out at the Temple of Heaven, a former imperial site, in front of the Hall of Prayer for Good Harvests, an iconic blue-tiled building known for its circular design and triple-gabled roof. The White House announced that Xi would accompany Trump on a tour of the world heritage site, where Chinese emperors once prayed for bountiful harvests.

The entire park is closed Wednesday and Thursday, while main attractions, including the lobby and echo wall, were closed Tuesday for “maintenance of the ancient architecture,” park management said.

It’s unusual. The park was not closed to the British and Spanish prime ministers when they visited the Palace Museum and the Summer Palace in Beijing, respectively, earlier this year. And Xi did not accompany them.

Beijing said Trump’s first presidential trip to China was a “plus-state visit,” and it is the only one China has organized for a foreign leader. The trip was full of unprecedented arrangements.

Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, showed Trump and the first lady around the palace museum, where they chatted over afternoon tea and watched a traditional opera performance in a royal theater that had not seen a performance in a century. They also dined there – a first for a foreign leader.

The next day, during the official welcome ceremony, “The Stars and Stripes Forever” was played while the presidents inspected Chinese military guards, an unusual choice intended to impress Trump.

Trump, who often boasts of his good relationship with Xi, still harkens back to that visit almost nine years ago.

“You know, the last time I was in China, President Xi treated me so well that he gave me an exhibition,” Trump said in February. “I’ve never seen so many soldiers, all the same size, exactly the same height within a quarter of an inch.”

How China treats Trump this time will provide clues about the dynamics of the relationship, said Doshi, who served on former President Joe Biden’s National Security Council and helped plan his summits with Xi in 2022 and 2023.

“China uses diplomatic protocol as a method to signal its favor or disfavor. This is why we need to pay close attention to how President Trump is received,” Doshi said.