We now have a ceasefire in Iran, at
least for the moment, and President Trump will apparently not blow the country
to kingdom come. But the volatility of the situation, and of Trump’s
temperament, means we may be back to hostilities next week or tomorrow. The
ceasefire is already fraying, and public acceptance of the narrative that the
U.S. lost might push Trump to reengage. And if and when hostilities do
recommence, there’s a deeper story that’s been happening with the military
during Trump’s second term, of which too few Americans are aware.
Since early last year, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have been methodically
disassembling the ability of the Pentagon to say no to orders that are illegal
or immoral. This is made worse by the fact that both Trump and Hegseth have
made it clear that they regard war crimes as a necessary and proper part of the
“warrior” ethos.
During his first term, Trump pardoned
a pair of Army officers convicted of war crimes and ordered the promotion of Navy SEAL Edward
Gallagher, who was acquitted despite posing with the body of a teen he had
killed. Gallagher’s own teammates accused him of sniping women
and children in Iraq. Trump celebrated all of them, seeing nothing wrong in
what they had done. This was indicative of how he would approach his second
term in office.
One of the first acts of the
Trump-Hegseth Pentagon was to purge
the military of its top lawyers (also known as JAGs, or judge advocate generals). JAGs perform the critical function of assessing the legality of
anything done within the military. One piece at The Atlantic correctly
described them as the “conscience”
of the military.
They also dismissed the Joint
Chiefs chairman, the chief of naval operations, and Air Force vice chief. At
the time, Hegseth told reporters that all these senior military officers were
removed because he didn’t want them to pose any “roadblocks to orders that
are given by a commander in chief.” The clear goal was to remove anyone
who might raise ethical objections to anything the military was ordered to do
by the administration.
At the time, people of course
understood the danger this posed and knew that this was a giant red flag.
During his first term, Trump
called Gallagher a “great warrior.” Gallagher’s teammates called him “toxic,”
“okay with killing anything that moved,” and “freakin’ evil.” Hegseth had
similar views and advocated for the pardon of service members accused or
convicted of war crimes, presenting them as warriors who were unjustly treated
by military bureaucracy.
Hegseth has long agitated against Rules
of Engagement, calling
them “stupid,” “politically correct,” and “overbearing.”
He has advocated for “maximum lethality” and argued that such rules
hinder American warfighters. He said that his intent was to “untie the hands of
our warfighters.” In reality, ROEs are
there to limit civilian casualties and prevent war crimes. During
counterinsurgency, or COIN, operations, preventing civilian casualties is one of
the most important goals, which demonstrates that he failed to grasp the bigger
picture.
Since the initial firings, Hegseth
has continued to dismiss anyone who has moral reservations or pushes back
against orders they consider immoral or illegal. Admiral
Alvin Holsey was the commander of U.S. Southern Command. In the interest of
full disclosure, I served with Holsey from 1999 until 2002 in a helicopter
strike squadron based in Mayport, Florida. Holsey was a serious, direct, no
nonsense, by-the-book, straight shooter when I served with him. He abruptly
retired in December 2025, only one year into his new assignment. It was
reportedly over a disagreement with Hegseth over the legality and morality of airstrikes on unarmed vessels accused of being drug smugglers.
More recently, Hegseth fired Army
Chief of Staff General Randy George after George refused to remove female and Black
troops from promotion
lists. Hegseth also fired Chief of the Chaplain Corps Maj. Gen. William Green, reportedly for his views on the role of chaplains,
and Gen. David Hodne from the Transformation and Training Command, or T2COM.
These moves are unprecedented
in the middle of the largest conflict the United States has faced in 20 years.
I spoke off the record with people
close to senior members of the military who remain. They expressed despair over
the situation: The common refrain was that while they are tempted to quit, to
do so will hurt the ability to protect American lives in the field. They also
see the situation as hopeless: If they leave, they will just be replaced with
someone even more eager to do the administration’s bidding regardless of
legality or wisdom.
Which brings us to today: The United
States launched a war with Iran that it cannot effectively finish. Iran has
control of the Strait of Hormuz and is limiting who gets through to those who
will pay the toll. Traffic is down by 93 percent, and Asian economies are
critically dependent on oil and other goods from the Middle East. The global
economy is currently in Wile E. Coyote mode: It has already run off the edge of
the cliff but hasn’t started falling, much less achieved terminal velocity
downward.
Trump and Hegseth never had a great
plan to begin with other than “Bomb Iran, and maybe something good will happen.”
They’re caught in a Chinese finger trap lined with spikes. This is causing the
sort of escalation spiral that the U.S. encountered in Vietnam, where
policymakers kept thinking that if they just persisted in turning up the
pressure and dropping more bombs on new targets, eventually North Vietnam would
bow out.
It never worked.
When the Vietnam War ended in 1973, U.S. concessions included removing almost
all troops from South Vietnam permanently. North Vietnam knew that this would
allow them to reconstitute their forces and finish conquering the south later,
which they did in 1975. Similarly, Iran’s demands include permanent
control of the Strait of Hormuz and removal
of U.S. troops and bases from the region.
Now Trump is threatening
to destroy Iran’s electrical system, a move whose legality rests on dual-use
arguments. While militaries have a right to target “dual-use” facilities (like
a bridge used by both the military and civilians) if they offer a “definite
military advantage,” these attacks are war crimes if they cause
disproportionate civilian harm. Legal scholars have long recognized dual-use
arguments potentially create a slippery
slope to causing civilian suffering and casualties bordering on war crimes.
The problem is that destroying
Iran’s electrical grid is unlikely to cause it to bend the knee and open the strait.
The U.S. destroyed over 80 percent of North Vietnam’s electrical generation
capacity, especially during Operation Linebacker II. North Vietnam compensated
by decentralizing electrical capacity and relying on generators. Ultimately,
destroying that capacity did little to bring terms favorable to the U.S. While
six weeks of war pales in comparison with the 10 years the U.S. spent
in Vietnam, the conflict in Iran was unpopular from the start. It has only
grown more so as the public pays higher prices and Trump increasingly makes
apocalyptic threats.
Iran’s electrical grid is heavily
decentralized, and unlikely to collapse without knocking out all the plants.
Additionally, public ownership of small generators is relatively common. As a
result, I do not see destruction of electrical infrastructure
causing Iran to capitulate.
This will leave Trump and Hegseth
with four options: Accept a humiliating ceasefire deal, destroy Iran’s water
infrastructure, use tactical nuclear weapons, or launch a full ground invasion.
There’s little chance Trump would accept the first because it makes him look
weak. Trump’s fear of nuclear escalation as it pertains to Russia suggests he
won’t use nuclear weapons. A full-blown invasion of Iran would require reinstating
the draft and committing to years and years of bloody, unpopular war.
This leaves destroying water
infrastructure as the last lever left available to the Trump administration to
avoid a humiliating defeat if destroying the electrical grid fails to achieve
the desired results. While destroying the electrical grid will result in some
civilian casualties, depriving the country of water is likely to cause mass
death in the millions, governmental collapse, and a refugee
crisis unlike anything the world has seen in modern times. Iran is already teetering
on the brink of disaster with its water supply: Destroying dams and
desalination plants would almost certainly push it over the edge.
This is a long and winding story
that has led to the moment where Trump and Hegseth are being pushed by their own hubris to
win a war they started via means that are the only way left to do it without a
land invasion. Neither of them regards anything short of nuclear or chemical
weapons as a war crime, and their treatment of Eddie Gallagher demonstrates
they could not care less how many civilians they kill on a whim. They
systematically removed anyone from the military who might tell them “no.”
Americans may not just be
remembered for electing a felon in 2024, or a demagogue or the best friend of a
child rapist. They may be remembered for electing a mass-murdering regime that telegraphed
its intent for years.
