Iran war: Can Zelenskyy and Putin seize their opportunities?
The surge in oil prices resulting from the war in Iran is a gift to Russia, as it replenishes its depleted coffers and eases the burden of continuing its costly war in Ukraine.
At the same time, the massive use of air defense systems in the Middle East to counter Iranian missile attacks poses a new concern for Ukraine, as it makes it even more difficult to obtain the scarce resources it needs to defend against Russian drone and missile barrages.
Overall, the repercussions of the expanding conflict in the Middle East are likely to work in favor of Russia’s interests and allow it to continue its war in Ukraine for longer, a number of analysts of the two wars say.
Why we wrote this
From soaring oil prices to depleting missile defenses, the impacts of the war in Iran quickly spilled over into the older conflict in Ukraine. And the needs of Middle East warfighters – for intelligence and anti-drone measures – have created diplomatic and strategic openings for both Russia and Ukraine.
Yet some also see a long-term gain for a courageous Ukraine in the way it has offered its homegrown anti-drone technologies to its Western and Middle Eastern partners – moving from being a needy defense consumer to being a valuable contributor to its partners’ defense and security.
“At least in the short term, a number of developments that we are seeing with the outbreak of war in Iran are beneficial to Russia’s interests,” says Robert Person, a senior fellow in the Eurasia program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Washington.
“But despite the very serious problems that this new war poses for Ukraine, this moment also constitutes a potential turning point,” he adds. “We are witnessing its transition from a war victim pleading from capital to capital in its defense to a valuable defense contributor and partner.”
As Iranian Shahed drones began bombing U.S. bases as well as cities in the Gulf and the broader region, Ukraine was quick to offer its advanced technology and experience in fighting the Shahed to the United States, Jordan, and several Gulf Arab countries.
A diminished United States
But Russia also has everything to gain from the war in Iran, well beyond its war in Ukraine, some analysts say.
“Already, we see [President Donald] “For Russia but also for China – two countries with close ties to Iran – the apparent failure of this war is a victory in that it takes the United States down a notch.”
Scott Peterson/Getty Images/The Christian Science Monitor
The Trump administration delivered a new boon to Russia on Thursday by temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil as part of an effort to contain rising oil prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a social media post that removing sanctions, even temporarily, would add hundreds of millions of barrels to the global market.
Later, during a podcast interview, the secretary acknowledged that Russia would benefit from the suspension, calling it “unfortunate.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is well aware of the broader benefits he can reap from transforming Washington’s war against Iran into a broader regional conflict, Dr. Person says.
Although Russia is already winning with rising energy prices, he notes, exporting its oil does not require access to the Strait of Hormuz – which Iran has pledged to keep closed.
“But on another level,” he adds, “as the leader of the global coalition aimed at countering and containing the United States, Russia is more than happy to see another American diversion. »
Ukraine on the back burner
The United States, distracted by the war in the Middle East, is less likely to maintain its push for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. This has positive aspects for both Russia and Ukraine, some analysts say.
Russia, once its financial worries have been eased, will be able to continue the fighting in Ukraine without diplomatic efforts in favor of a settlement for which it has never expressed interest. And Ukraine will feel less pressure to accept a painful land-for-peace deal that the United States is pushing.
The downside for Ukraine is a diplomatic vacuum that marginalizes it on the international stage, although Russia is expected to step up its aggression with an offensive in the spring and summer.
Indeed, the nightmare scenario for Ukraine is an exacerbated global shortage of air defense systems and munitions that would leave its cities defenseless in the coming months in the face of intensifying Russian air attacks.
Martial Trezzini/Keystone/AP
“In the first week of war in the Middle East, we saw dozens of Patriot air defense launchers fire hundreds of interceptors against Iranian missiles and drones,” Dr. Person says. “Where Ukraine comes in is that we know that production of these coveted systems is limited,” he adds, “so as these countries burn through their supplies, it just means more competition for a scarce product. »
European officials acknowledged last week that increased pressure for air defense systems following the war in Iran would complicate their commitment to supplying such weapons to Ukraine.
European capitals – as well as some pro-Ukrainian members of Congress – are increasingly concerned that Russia will take advantage of the depletion of its air defenses to accelerate its attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, with the aim of bringing the country to its knees.
Longer term goals
But some observers say Mr. Putin is certainly looking for other ways, beyond Ukraine, to turn the American war in Iran to his advantage.
Dr. Menon notes, for example, that Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump had an hour-long telephone conversation last week, even as the Russian leader suggested he could play a mediating role in any negotiations between Iran and the United States.
“Russia’s impasse in Ukraine has raised many questions about whether Russia is truly a great power,” he said. “If Putin could position himself as a mediator, it could help him dispel these doubts and restore Russia’s image as a great power.”
Russia also wouldn’t want the war in the Middle East to drag on too long and result in chaos near its southern border, Dr. Person says, something Russia has long feared.
At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is demonstrating, by proposing anti-drone technology, the “intelligence” that has advanced his position on the international stage, he says – and that has cemented Ukraine’s image as an innovator in defense technology.
The war in Iran “has both [Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy] play true to his character,” he says.
Information Sharing
The question of how Mr. Putin is playing into this war arose again after he reported — first in the New York Times and then in other media outlets — that U.S. officials knew that Russia shared intelligence with Iran, which allowed Tehran to target American forces in the region.
Asked about the reports, Mr. Trump’s chief negotiator with Iran, Steve Witkoff, told Fox News that Russia had denied sharing intelligence with Iran.
“Do the Russians have the capacity to gather this type of intelligence and then share it? Yes, they do,” says Dr. Menon. “Would they then say they shared it? Of course not.”
Moreover, he said, this kind of revelation is unlikely to sway Mr. Trump, who long established his favorable opinion of the Russian leader and maintained it throughout Russia’s four-year assault on Ukraine.
Russian cooperation with Iran must be seen in the context of Moscow’s ambitions for a bloc that challenges the global power of the United States, Dr. Person says. In this context, he says there is something else to remember about intelligence sharing.
“The fact is,” he said, “that the United States regularly provides intelligence to Ukraine for its attacks on Russian military targets. »
