It’s the Economy, Donald | WIRED
If economic trends are continuing, prices – the amount of which, despite the President’s insistence, otherwise, taxes on American companies and finally on American consumers – the rise in unemployment could be a time bomb.
“If this experience fails, it will fail horribly, and I think we will start to see the impacts of this earlier than late,” said a second strategist from Trumpworld.
No rocket science
There are a lot of COPE in Trump’s GOP and White House.
“I think we have shown that the bit of inflation has been resolved,” said a White House official. “When the private sector is willing to work with us and we understand and appreciate our mandate to reshape the manufacturing, we have shown over and over again that we are ready to meet them halfway.”
Could there be more concerns about job figures, in particular given a drop in the work participation rate and revisions, resulting in the growth in employment for hundreds of thousands this spring to tens of thousands?
“No,” said a republican member of the president’s congress in an SMS when they were asked if they were worried about the labor market. “No way. Prices’ income has been good. In addition, major tax reductions have just passed. More to be accompanied by a potential massive trade agreement in the 15th. ” (August 15 was the day when Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska; no commercial agreement of this type, has materialized.)
Economists I spoke to, however, do not buy it.
“All the signs seem fairly pessimistic on the inflation front,” said James Angel, professor of finance at the University of Georgetown, in an email. “You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand that prices will increase the prices we pay for imported goods. No amount of rotation will change this. ”
Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, says that the labor market looks dark before the prices are fully embarking on.
Wolfers adds that one of Trumpworld’s largest justifications for prices that are not a big problem for American consumers simply do not hold. As Trumpworld’s first strategist pointed out, some companies – notably American car manufacturers like General Motors – have shown in their profits that they are ready to eat the cost of prices at the expense of their own profits.
“This is what you expect normally to happen in the short term, because companies do not change their minute prices per minute each time the president opens their mouth,” explains Wolfers. “Now that the prices are defined, and they see the compression of the margins, this is the moment when you expect companies to start thinking about the repair.”
Wolfers says consumers should expect to feel more pain “in the second half of this year”.
Angel says that even a continuation of the status quo with perpetually delayed prices could still have devastating consequences.
“Economic chaos with booming and out of the same time has caused the expectations of business and consumers,” said Georgetown professor. “This in itself is likely to cause a recession.”
Citizen
Trump’s vendetta against the president of the federal reserve, Jerome Powell, does not calm the tremors of my sources, because Trump clearly indicated that he would like the possible replacement of Powell to reduces interest rates, even if that makes conflicts with Fed’s double mandate to maintain stable prices and employment.
This does not help either, the sources tell me that Trump dismissed the head of the work statistics office after the last employment numbers have shown significant revisions and a slowdown in hiring in recent months. (EJ Antoni, Trump’s choice to direct the BLS, has little relevant experience beyond being the chief economist of the heritage foundation; as Wired has reported, a Twitter account now deleted using his name has shown a fixation on conspiracy theories folded in red.)
