Majorities unsure if attempts on Trump were staged or real : NPR

President Donald speaks, joined by FBI Director Kash Patel, Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin, and Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, during a press briefing shortly after a shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on April 25, 2026.

Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

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Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

At a time of historically high political violence in the United States, a significant number of Americans doubt the legitimacy of recent assassination attempts on President Trump.

Trump has been the subject of three assassination attempts in the past two years. However, a NewsGuard/YouGov poll released Monday found that 30 percent of Americans believe at least one of these incidents was staged.

The findings come just weeks after a gunman allegedly tried to storm the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, which Trump attended, but was stopped at a security checkpoint by law enforcement before reaching the main ballroom. In the weeks that followed, a wave of misinformation surrounding the event spread online.

The poll surveyed 1,000 Americans between April 28 and May 4 and asked about the shooting at the Correspondents’ Dinner and the assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. in July 2024 and the attempt on his life which took place while he was playing golf in West Palm Beach.

When asked if each of the incidents “was staged,” a majority of respondents responded that they believed each event was staged or that they were unsure. A majority – about 45% – said each was a “genuine attempt”.

According to the survey, one in four respondents believe that the attempted attack at the correspondents’ dinner was staged. The same goes for Butler, where 24 percent of respondents believe the attack was staged. Sixteen percent felt the same way about the foiled plot in West Palm Beach.

These views were expressed despite numerous witnesses in Butler and Washington, D.C., and detailed federal indictments against suspects in the Florida plot and dinner shootings. A Senate committee investigated the Butler attack after a Secret Service sniper killed the attacker and released an exhaustive report detailing security failures at the rally.

Sofia Rubinson is an editor at NewsGuard, which tracks false claims spread online. The claims posted on X in the week after the dinner were viewed more than 90 million times, she said.

“There really isn’t a lot of evidence that these social media users are citing or relying on,” she said. “It’s just about trusting and trusting that the government is acting honestly and giving us accurate information.”

During an interview with 60 minutes the day after the dinner, Trump rejected allegations that the incident was staged.

“I think they’re sicker than crooks,” Trump said, referring to individuals who promote such conspiracy theories. “But there are also a lot of scams in there.”

The new poll finds that doubts about assassination attempts are much more concentrated among younger Americans and Democrats.

Americans aged 18 to 29 were most likely to believe all three events were staged, according to the poll.

This sentiment is also more pronounced on the left, with 21% of Democrats sharing this sentiment, seven times more than Republicans. Asked about all three incidents, a larger share of Democrats say each event was staged, with 34% saying about the Correspondents’ Dinner, 42% about Butler and 26% about Trump’s golf club.

Although Republicans are less likely to think the events were fabricated, Rubinson notes a striking increase in the number of Republican voters who believe the dinner shooting was staged — 13% — compared to the events at Butler (7%) and Trump’s golf club (7%).

“Always [a] much lower percentage than that of the Democrats. But we are seeing that Republicans are increasingly likely to believe this ‘staged’ narrative,” she said.

Rubinson acknowledged that while it is difficult to definitively explain the increase, it could be due to a “division” within the Trump movement over issues such as the administration’s handling of the Epstein files as well as the war with Iran.

“Much of the traditional MAGA base may be increasingly unhappy with the Trump administration and more inclined to believe these types of conspiracies.”