Mercury-Lynx Game 4: Can Minnesota win if Collier sidelined?

Phoenix – The Lynx of Minnesota sat at the top of the ranking throughout the 2025 season and was the heavy favorites to return to the WNBA final and play for their fifth title in the history of the franchise. But before the match on Sunday 4 (8 p.m., ESPN) of their semi-final series against the Phoenix Mercury, they are on Sunday, they are on the verge of elimination after losing two consecutive games.

The victory of Phoenix 84-76 Match 3 Friday ended with Chaos. At one end of the courtyard, the Lynx striker, Napheesa Collier, sat on the ground, catching him with the left ankle after his collision with the guard of Mercury Alyssa Thomas. At the other end, the Minnesota coach, Cheryl Reeve, was removed from the field by his staff with about 21 seconds to play after having reprimanded the officials for not having called a fault on Thomas.

During his post-match press conference, Reeve said that the assignment of the three officials of match 3 to a match in the semi-final in the playoffs was “professional fault” and that a change was necessary at the level of the league concerning his process of hiring and selection of the referee.

Although the lynx has not updated the status of necklace, the WNBA suspended Reeve on Saturday for a match.

Kendra Andrews d’Espn, Charlie Creme, Kevin Pelton and Michael Voepel watch what to expect on Sunday of the two teams, as well as the officer, and what the uncertain status of necklace means for the rest of the WNBA qualifiers.

Why was the lynx not as dominant in this series as in regular season?

Voepel: It is not unusual for the teams who fought for a place in the playoffs until the end of the regular season to appear more clear than teams that won early. The Lynx finished seeded n ° 1 and the advantage of the home at home on August 30, 12 days before the end of the regular season. Minnesota had nothing to win in its last five regular season games. Reeve insisted that the games always had a meaning and the lynx would not relax or stagnate, but it is easier to say than to do.

However, if the Minnesota bounced the airball of the Phoenix goalkeeper Sami Whitcomb with 8 seconds to play in the regulations in match 2, the lynx would probably have closed this victory and increased 2-0 via Phoenix. Instead, Minnesota lost extension, which radically changed the tenor of the series. The collar injury and the lynx defeat in match 3 further prompted the momentum in favor of Phoenix.

Andrews: The lynx did not look like the team that dominated the regular season. After having had the best defense of the League – a defensive note of 97.5 and granting only 76.7 points per game – the Minnesota had the fourth best defense in its first five games of the season, dragging Dream Mercury, New York Liberty and Atlanta.

Minnesota seemed much more frantic offensively in the semi-finals than the season. The lynx sometimes rushes, and if their first option is removed, they rush to find a different plan. Their composure of the regular season has slipped and Phoenix operates it.

Pelton: Brian Windhorst d’Espn likes to talk about the margin for error, and I would emphasize the absence of Dijonai Carrington as something that eroded the margin of Minnesota. Add to that Karlie Samuelson’s injury in July, and the lynxs are missing two players that they thought they were upgrading this year’s team.

What did Phoenix do to take control of this series?

Voepel: It is essential to remember that the lynx has never faced Phoenix with Thomas, Sutou Sabally and Kahleah Copper All in the court and during their four regular season meetings. Reeve and Lynx players said before this series that their 3-1 regular season record against Mercury did not guarantee the success of Minnesota in the series.

The Mercury excelled in painting in the first half of match 1, but the lynx was adjusted in the second period and won. In match 2, Phoenix did 11 points to 3 points after hitting only three in the first match, helping the Mercury even to the series. Then, in match 3, the two teams carried out the same number of goals on the field (30) and 3 points (six), but the Mercury went 18 out of 22 of the free throw line compared to 10 out of 11 for the lynx. It was the difference.

Pelton: For the point of Voepel, the Mercury have two of the three best players in this series by our classification entering the playoffs, and Thomas has ahead of collar so far. The stronger continuity of Minnesota has not overcome this differential in high -end talents.

Andrews: When the Mercury finally had its players at full power with about a regular month in the regular season, Sabally told ESPN that she thought that the team was playing 80% of its capacities. The Mercury hoped through this last period that they would strengthen chemistry and would combine it with the surprising depth they obtained from their recruit group to run a deep playoff race. We see that to materialize.

Thomas’ facilitation was clinical, and Sabally and Copper’s score was high. The trio scored the last 29 points of the Mercury in match 3, including the 21 in the fourth. The depth of Phoenix also changed the situation, such as Whitcomb’s shooting at the end of the regulations in match 2. The Mercury knew that they could reach this level once they were healthy. And dating from the victory of match 2 in the first round against Liberty, Phoenix’s confidence was not higher.

Can Minnesota always win this series if collar is not on the field or 100%?

Cream: The lynx winning two consecutive games with a healthy necklace would not be out of the question. But the playoffs can light a few moments, and it seems that it has after match 3.

Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman played well in match 2, with 33 points combined, but it is not an offense without necklace. Kayla McBride is more capable, but everyone on this list is a role player.

Necklace means too much for the lynx to win without it. She is not only one of the best scorers in the league and the centerpiece of their attack, but necklace is also one of the best defenders of the WNBA. How has a team that has already been upgraded by 26 points in the painting of the series defends the interior without its anchor? The lynx probably can’t. Returning to win the series seems just as improbable.

Voepel: I agree with Charlie. Yes, the lynx won a few big games during the regular season without a collar, which played in 33 of the 44 games. But with the mercury at full power and the increased atmosphere of the playoffs, it would be difficult for the Lynx to win two games if collar cannot play.

Officiating was criticized by coaches and players throughout the season. What is your opinion on the question?

Pelton: Everything in the WNBA has stabilized in the past five years, from installations to trips to talent on the ground. The officer frankly did not follow the pace. The WNBA will always officiate if the best referees in the League are promoted to the NBA. The WNBA benefits from the training that the NBA offers, but it is time to improve the salary to the point where to go to the NBA is not the objective. And we have long been expected at a WNBA rereading center to accelerate these endless stops.

Andrews: The real point to remember Reeve comments after match 3 is what is important: when the officials have not created from previous to know how the game is called, the game often becomes uncontrollable. As we saw in match 3 in Phoenix – no technique was called on Bridget Carleton when she was chest Sabally. And we saw it earlier in the year, when the templers played in a match between Indiana and Connecticut.

Voepel: There are complaints concerning arbitration in all sports. The growing popularity of the WNBA has brought a more important projector to officiating: more people look, so more complaining.

I grew up to hate the term “physical” because it seems to mean a crash as much as you can get away with it before a fault is called. However, nobody wants too many whistles (which disturbs the flow of the game) or too little (which can lead to a villain, at best, and injuries, at worst).

In addition, people do not see the same thing on the same game. It is true of contact Thomas-Collier. For me, it was a fault on Thomas. But others have seen it as “accessory”. In the end, the only opinion that counts in any game is that of officials.

Coaches and players generally say they want consistency. But those responsible are human with different strengths and weaknesses, both individually and as a unit. The league must do everything it can to hire and properly compensate for the best possible civil servants. But there also seems to be more demand than the supply of very high level officials.

How will the match 4 be officiated? What team has a stronger whistle and why?

Cream: The coaches called the physical game all the season, but that did not cause a lot of change in the way the matches are officiated, so the logic suggests that little change on Sunday.

But it is now emotion, no logic. Reeve’s explosion made this apparent. The authorities hear the noise. And although a new team brings a new set of eyes and a new approach, the managers know that a job already very examined will be even more under the microscope in match 4. Expect more whistles, especially early. It is natural to want to take more control over a situation that seems uncontrollable. The result will be more calls.

Minnesota, the team perceived as having been most negatively affected by the official on Friday, will be the beneficiary of more whistles? Minnesota was the last in the WNBA in points on free throws and the second to last as a percentage of free throws. The Mercury have more players who attack the edge aggressively. They also attempted more free throws this season than Minnesota, although none of the two teams is in the upper half of the franc launch rate.

More calls could have a more impact on the rotation of lynx. Without Carrington, they are not as deep.

Andrews: Expect more whistles early because the officials prove that they can take-and keep control of the game. The authorities can intervene faster when the emotions are high, as during the back and forth between Williams and the copper in match 3, Carleton’s chest on Sabally or the chatter between Thomas and collar in match 2.

The lynx could benefit more mentally, but Phoenix has many players who like to cut the edge and play (or draw) more contact, so it could go in both directions.

I am also curious to know how it affects energy in the arena. Fans inside PHX Friday seemed to love physics. Knowing that it will be under a microscope on Sunday, it could create a hostile environment, which could help Mercury.