Met Office: 2026 will bring heat more than 1.4C above preindustrial levels | Climate crisis

Next year, temperatures will rise more than 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, meteorologists estimate, as pollution from fossil fuels continues to cook the Earth and fuel extreme weather.

The UK Met Office’s central forecast is slightly colder than the 1.55C reached in 2024, the hottest year on record, but 2026 is forecast to be one of the four warmest years since 1850.

A blanket of carbon choking the Earth has begun to jeopardize the stable conditions in which humanity has thrived, worsening extreme weather and increasing the risk of catastrophic tipping points. The Met Office expects 2026 to be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C warmer than the 1850 to 1900 average.

“The last three years have probably all exceeded 1.4C, and we expect 2026 to be the fourth year in a row to do so,” said Adam Scaife, a climate scientist at the Met Office who led the forecast. “Before this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C.”

World leaders pledged to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) by the end of the century at a historic climate summit in Paris 10 years ago. As the target is measured by a 30-year average, it is still physically possible to achieve it, even if some months and years cross the threshold.

“2024 saw the first temporary exceedance of 1.5°C and our forecasts for 2026 suggest this is possible again,” said Nick Dunstone, a climatologist at the Met Office. “This shows how quickly we are now approaching the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement.”

Last week, EU scientists said 2025 would be “almost certain” to be the second or third hottest year on record, confirming World Meteorological Organization projections from November.

Average global temperatures from January to November were 1.48°C higher than pre-industrial levels, according to Copernicus, the EU’s Earth observation programme.

It found that the anomalies were identical to those recorded in 2023, the second warmest year on record. Last year, the Met Office predicted that in 2025, temperatures would be 1.29°C to 1.53°C higher than pre-industrial levels.

Natural variations, including warming El Niño conditions, caused global temperatures to rise in 2023 and 2024, but gave way to a slight cooling of La Niña conditions in 2025. These fluctuations occur against a backdrop of heat-trapping gases pumped from power plants, cars and boilers, as well as destruction of nature that can suck carbon from the air.

Levels of carbon dioxide clogging the atmosphere reached unprecedented levels last year, according to a UN report released in October. In addition to the relentless burning of fossil fuels and the fallout from widespread wildfires, scientists fear that Earth’s natural “carbon sinks” may begin to stop functioning.