Meteorologists predict a fairly chill 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Other signs indicate that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may ultimately be a welcome respite from more recent devastating storms. As La Niña transitions into a stronger El Niño weather pattern later this summer, the United States may experience a lower than average number of hurricanes. In fact, the lull could be so calm that the season could only bring two or more Category 3 hurricanes. That said, this does not mean that everyone living in at-risk areas should neglect preparing for more serious circumstances.
The latest information comes from the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project’s Annual Extended-Range Atlantic Hurricane Forecast. The 41-page report contains a wealth of information on factors such as ocean temperatures, precipitation estimates and trade wind data that meteorologists use to anticipate future weather conditions.
“We expect El Niño to be the dominant factor in the upcoming hurricane season,” the study authors write, adding that they currently forecast a “lower than average probability of major hurricanes along the continental United States coast and in the Caribbean.”
Aside from just two major hurricanes, CSU meteorologists are forecasting 13 named storms as well as six hurricanes classified as Category 1 or 2 events. That’s about a 32 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the East Coast. Meanwhile, the Caribbean could face a slightly higher risk of a major hurricane, at 35 percent. For reference, the average probability of major hurricanes on the East Coast and Caribbean between 1880 and 2020 was 43% and 47%, respectively.
La Niña is the main reason for this relatively quiet season. Specifically, the extremely weak conditions of this particular La Niña cycle. Along with El Niño, these two phenomena are known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle which takes place in the Pacific Ocean. La Niña typically results in stronger trade winds, cooler water surface temperatures, and decreased precipitation in the central Pacific. In contrast, El Niño brings warmer surface waters, more rain and weaker trade winds. In both cases, the trade winds eventually move westward along the equator from South America to Asia, pushing warmer waters as colder, deeper ocean waters rise in what is called upwelling.
“We currently project that a robust El Niño will dominate the tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, likely leading to above-normal levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean,” the study authors explained.
All this wind force makes it much more difficult for cyclones to form in the upper atmosphere, thus disrupting the formation of hurricanes. If this year’s El Niño is as strong as meteorologists predict, there’s a good chance the U.S. and Caribbean will experience a relatively calm season. However, this does not mean ignoring future predictions.
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall for this season to be active for them,” the authors warn. “Careful preparations must be made for each season, regardless of the intensity of the planned activity.”
Even basic planning goes a long way in an emergency. Always make sure your home has plenty of water and non-perishable food, and keep weather radios, flashlights and power banks charged. Stay informed of any adverse weather changes and properly store important personal documents. Most importantly, follow all emergency evacuation announcements as well as the new 2026 forecast maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. Additional hurricane season forecasts are expected from organizations like NOAA in the coming weeks. And if you’ve already checked off everything on your prep list, you can always start writing down the official storm names for the 2026 hurricane season, although it’s hard to top Gemma, Heath, and Ronin.
The best new PopSci 2025 releases
