Is a new Iran nuclear deal possible? : NPR

MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

We begin this hour by talking about Iran. Indeed, President Trump claims that he will act, quote, “quickly and violently” against the country if he does not obtain a nuclear agreement. Negotiations are scheduled for tomorrow in Oman. They follow the massacre last month of thousands of demonstrators in Iran. So, can the United States and Iran reach an agreement? In other words, can Iran extricate itself from a US attack? That’s what I discussed with national security correspondent Greg Myre and science and security correspondent Geoff Brumfiel on NPR’s national security podcast, Sources & Methods.

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KELLY: Okay. So we have these huge protests in Iran. We are witnessing brutal repression by Iranian leaders. And how did we come to the point where, all of a sudden, an American armada – to use the words of President Trump – is growing off the coast of Iran? Greg?

GREG MYRE: Yeah. It wasn’t a direct line because as these protests were happening in January, President Trump said the United States would support the protesters. That seemed to be the main goal. It was never really clear what he would do. And then we saw a massive crackdown, and the protests largely stopped at that point. But then the situation sort of transformed as the United States built this military force off the coast of Iran and throughout the Middle East. It seemed that some confrontation was still underway, even though the protests had died down.

KELLY: This is a major turning point in human rights, and we’re going to come to your aid, Iranian protesters, and I’m sending an aircraft carrier and a group of support ships to the coast off Iran.

MYRE: Absolutely. And it does not appear that the protesters – their demands – are on the agenda for the talks in Oman. So like you said, yes. It’s a big pivot. The threat of force is still there, but we have started talking about the nuclear issue again, as we have seen many times in the past with Iran. So yes. You could have missed this pivot if you weren’t paying attention.

KELLY: Well, and I guess my basic question is: why? And what is the United States’ interest here? I mean, President Trump, to be honest, many American presidents before him, he sets his policies based on what the United States gains from it.

MYRE: Well, he didn’t explain it clearly. It could be several things. It could be a military attack aimed at eliminating the leader of Iran. But this would not result in massive, radical regime change. This is a large diet with many elements. We could attack the security forces, the Revolutionary Guards and others who carried out these (ph) massacres of demonstrators.

Or we could attack Iran’s nuclear program, as we saw last June, when the United States and Israel teamed up and, for 12 days, bombed nuclear and related sites. So it could be some or all of the above, or just massive pressure to try to reach a negotiated nuclear deal. And Trump, as the president who tore up the last deal, would certainly want to be able to say that he got a much better deal than the one Barack Obama got in 2015.

KELLY: One last thing on this, as we consider the prospects of a new nuclear deal: When Greg took office, in 2017, the United States had a nuclear deal with Iran. Trump removed the United States from this situation. Is there a realistic possibility of reaching a new agreement?

MYRE: Oh, I think there is a realistic solution if both sides decide they want one. Iran has been significantly weakened in recent years by wars in the region that have set back Iran itself and its proxies. It would therefore seek a way out of this immediate crisis and might therefore be willing to make certain concessions. But it’s pretty clear that the Trump administration wants not only major concessions on the nuclear program, essentially a halt to all enrichment, but also that highly enriched uranium that seems to be hiding somewhere. They want this exported out of the country.

They also want Iran to get rid of its missiles, which are effectively its only means of retaliating against the United States and Israel. And he also wants Iran to end its support for its proxy networks – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis. And these are things that Iran does not want to do. So, if we remain narrowly focused on the nuclear issue, then yes, an agreement is possible.

GEOFF BRUMFIEL: Yeah. And I mean, that’s exactly what happened with the last deal, right? They agreed to restrict it to nuclear issues only, and Iran has shown great willingness in this direction. But I think, especially after this latest conflict with Israel, you know, the only thing that has really worked for Iran is its missiles, and I just can’t imagine that they would give that up easily.

MYRE: And the other thing I would add is that Iran will also make demands. If he is willing to make concessions on his nuclear program or anything else, he will demand something in return – almost certainly some sort of sanctions relief. So would President Trump be prepared to grant concessions to Iran after the massacre of thousands of civilian protesters?

KELLY: Great question from Greg Myre. You also heard Geoff Brumfiel. And we were speaking on NPR’s national security podcast, Sources & Methods. Listen to our full conversation wherever you get your podcasts.

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