MLB home run picks May 15: Ketel Marte in great spot at Coors Field

Shohei Ohtani is always the center of attention, but that could be especially the case Friday night when the Dodgers visit Ohtani’s former Angels team in the Freeway Series. Ohtani is going through one of the biggest crises of his career. The Dodgers aren’t using him as a pinch hitter on nights he pitches, like Wednesday, but he also didn’t play at all at DH Thursday as manager Dave Roberts tries to get the four-time MVP out of his slump. By the way, Ohtani is now at +17500 to lead the majors this season. I won’t play him tonight against the Halos (+262) but I will be curious to see how he reacts to rare adversity.

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Last Friday, my MLB betting The home run picks were Juan Soto of the Mets and Zach Neto of the Angels – Neto was a particularly long shot. Soto’s blah season continued when he went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts in Arizona. Neto singled in four at-bats in Toronto.

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Best Friday MLB Home Run Picks

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+235, FanDuel)

Woo-hoo, the Rockies are home Friday night – which means we have an automatic home run game for either Colorado (doubtful) or the visiting team. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in town. It’s sometimes easy to forget how good Ketel Marte has been with the Diamondbacks and for how long. Earlier this week, he passed Paul Goldschmidt for the second-most games played with the franchise and now sits about 100 behind passing leader Luis Gonzalez.

There aren’t many better second basemen in the majors and if Arizona were to take a few trade calls on the 32-year-old, the Snakes would recoup a nice sum since Marte signed a team-friendly deal through at least 2030. But with his 10-5 rights (10 years in MLB, five with one franchise) recently kicking in, Marte now has a no-trade clause. The Red Sox reportedly covet him.

Marte is still not having his good season at the plate, with a .215 batting average with just five home runs and a .367 slugging percentage – down from .283 with 28 at-bats and a .517 slugging percentage last year. Surprisingly, Marte has yet to hit a home run in his own Chase Field, which is pretty hitter-friendly. Not as friendly as Coors Field, of course, which the Diamondbacks visit tonight for the first time this season.

During his career with Coors, Marte hit .295 with nine home runs and hit .525. Against Kyle Freeland of the Rockies, Marte hit .354 and batted .688 with three home runs, five doubles and one triple in his career. He’s lucky in 2026 with a BABIP of just .236, which would be a career low by far and 54 points lower than 2025.

Also consider Arizona’s Nolan Arenado (5-for-10, two doubles), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (4-for-12, doubles, HR) and Corbin Carroll (3-for-9, HR), as each also has good splits with Freeland.

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Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+361, DraftKings)

The Orioles-Nationals Beltway Series opener begins at 6:45 a.m. ET from DC, and perhaps a rivalry game like this will bring O’s All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson to the plate. As recently as 2023, Baltimore looked like the American League’s rising superpower and Henderson, the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year, looked like a future MVP.

But the Orioles are at a standstill because they can’t find enough pitchers and all those other promising young players around Henderson haven’t developed well or can’t stay healthy. But Henderson also deserves some blame. The 24-year-old was one of the AL’s best players in 2024 when he set several career highs, including a .281 batting average and 37 home runs. Henderson finished fourth in AL MVP voting.

He took a step back in 2025 with a .274 average and 17 homers and this year he’s near rock bottom at .197 with nine homers. He hit six of those home runs in the first 14 games with a peak OPS of .963. That now sits at .646 with his last home run on April 26 and his last hit on Sunday. There are several reasons he’s struggling, but probably the biggest is Henderson’s pursuit rate of around 35%, which was 27.7% in 2025 and 23.2% in 2024.

But sometimes a struggling golfer changes his season by going to a course where he thrives. Maybe facing struggling Nationals right-hander Zack Littell on Friday is exactly what Henderson needs. Littell, 30, is 1-4 with a 6.94 ERA and 14 home runs allowed – by far the most in MLB – in 36.1 innings pitched.

Henderson is 7 for 23 with two home runs and a career double against Littell, and 11 of the 14 home runs Littell has given up were to left-handed hitters like Henderson. Also consider right-hander Taylor Ward, who is 4-for-8 with two home runs against Littell.

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