Most Americans have avoided shutdown woes. That might change.
One of the remarkable aspects of the current government shutdown is how little impact it has had on ordinary Americans. Unless you are a federal employee, furloughed, or, more likely, working without pay, the partial government shutdown likely had minimal effect.
But that seems to be changing. Now money was going to run out for federal grants that help 42 million low-income people buy groceries. But rulings issued Friday by two federal judges call on the Trump administration to use national emergency money to continue funding the program this month. This would only delay the propagation effect of the closure.
In just a few weeks, some 1.3 million men and women on active duty in the military could go without pay. And staffing issues, already causing delays and temporary closures at airports, could lead to “disaster” during the busiest travel days around Thanksgiving, Vice President JD Vance warned Thursday. These events alone could change the dynamics of the lockdown and increase political pressure to end it.
Why we wrote this
Workarounds have protected most Americans from the effects of the government shutdown, but program disruptions could soon test the public’s patience and political will.
The failure to fund military salaries could have particularly serious political consequences, said Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Congressional Budget Office. “There is just a particularly egregious phenomenon of people risking their lives to defend the United States and not getting paid.”
The first policy test for Congress, set to begin today, concerns the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps.
While Republicans and Democrats disagree over government funding, the Trump administration said before Friday’s court rulings that there was no more money for SNAP. Run by states but funded by the federal government, it helps low-income people – about 1 in 8 Americans – feed their families.
Today’s shutdown, if it occurs, will not affect all states immediately, as some have found temporary solutions. States from New Mexico to Virginia have pledged to replace federal funding with state money that lasts recipients from a few days to a month. Other states are sending money to food banks, hoping they can fill the grocery gap. This is a significant challenge, since food banks are already strained by the additional demand from federal employees who no longer receive salaries.
Pressure for military pay
The Trump administration itself carried out an overhaul of military personnel pay. On October 15, he tapped unused military research and development funds to guarantee full salaries. On Friday, the administration said it was using a combination of legislative and defense funds, as well as a $130 million donation from one of President Donald Trump’s friends to cover salaries. Critics point out that the anonymous donation, which has drawn legal, political and national security challenges, covers only $100 per service member.
Historically, Democrats and Republicans have resorted to shutdowns because they could make their point at little political cost. This is possible because the judgments do not have universal scope. Large, “essential” government operations, such as postal service and air traffic control, must continue without worker pay. Under the Trump administration, about half of the roughly 2 million federal workers have been deemed essential.
“Social Security checks are being paid; Medicare bills are paid,” says Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, a center-right nonprofit focused on economic and tax policy in Washington. “The things that affect Americans the most and put the most money on the line continue to happen. »
Even the National Park Service, which employs many nonessential workers, is keeping open some 350 of its 433 sites, which cover more than 85 million acres. It dramatically cuts services and, in some cases, uses admission revenue to continue paying staff.
But the longer the shutdown continues, the more difficult workarounds become and the more government programs run out of money.
In some states, Washington’s shutdown threatened and delayed a federally funded program that helps low-income families pay for heating. A Minnesota group administering the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program delayed its opening as temperatures began to drop. A local agency in Massachusetts had to stop administering its LIHEAP program altogether, while states like Connecticut are using funds left over from last year to maintain operations for a while.
Another blow to some households begins today, when people begin choosing health insurance plans for 2026. The enhanced subsidies end for some 22 million Americans who buy their insurance through government exchanges. On average, Affordable Care Act premiums are expected to more than double, according to KFF, a health policy research group.
These subsidies are at the heart of the impasse that led to the shutdown. Democrats refuse to pass appropriations bills until Republicans agree to extend these subsidies. Republicans want to negotiate them after Democrats agreed to end the shutdown.
Who will shout “uncle” first?
The shutdown will end when either party decides that polls show the shutdown is disproportionately harming it, Mr. Holtz-Eakin says. That’s unlikely to happen before Nov. 4, when voters in New Jersey and Virginia elect a governor and state officials, he adds.
Although shutdowns rarely have a lasting national economic impact, as spending delays in one quarter are often made up in the next quarter, the local impact may be more severe in some regions.
“The end of the season wasn’t what we hoped for,” says Ian Blair, co-owner of Kayak Lake Mead, a tour company in White Hills, Ariz., that launches operations at the base of Hoover Dam, a national historic landmark. The adjacent Lake Mead National Recreation Area remains open, but with significantly reduced services to accommodate the continued influx of visitors. “It wasn’t the worst, but it certainly didn’t live up to expectations for the rest of the year,” Mr. Blair said.
The National Parks Conservation Association estimates that communities serving as gateways to parks stand to lose $80 million a day in visitor spending, from restaurant meals to equipment rentals. In 2024, visitors to U.S. parks spent about $29 billion in “gateway regions,” which generated about $56 billion in economic output, according to a National Park Service report.
In Spruce Pine, North Carolina, recovering from last year’s flooding caused by Hurricane Helene was difficult enough, says Robert Thomason, owner of Rocks and Things, a gem store. But concerns about the closure appear to have led to a slowdown in activity along the Blue Ridge Parkway, one of the nation’s most popular attractions, he said. The Parkway, a unit of the Park Service, connects Shenandoah National Park to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and serves many gateway communities.
“Right now the leaves are looking great and we’re seeing a few leaf spotters, but this is our last hope for customers for the rest of the year,” he adds. “We are running out of steam, you could say.”
As the shutdown drags on, even minor delays begin to take a toll on those affected, says Brookings’ Ms. Edelberg. Due to the shutdown, the Small Business Administration is not approving any new loans. A two-week delay is annoying; a six-week delay might look very different, she adds. Ditto for those applying for mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration, which is also not accepting new applications.
Then there are the federal employees themselves, some of whom are at risk of losing a third salary. “Two paychecks is a little shocking,” says Ms. Edelberg of Brookings. “Three paychecks, and I think it’s starting to be a financial disaster.”
And that’s leading many of the government’s top officials to seek jobs in the private sector and foreign investors to reconsider investing in the United States, she adds. These costs are difficult to determine, but they can have a long-term impact.
