Nasa meteorologists trialling model to produce ultra local, short-term forecasts | UK weather

Meteorologists work on longer-term forecasts, but they have not neglected ultra-local and very short-term forecasts for specific purposes.

This month, meteorologists at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia announced tests with a high-resolution weather model called US1k developed by Meteomatics. Developers say this model has nine times finer resolution than other solutions, allowing planners to have a clear, enlarged view of launch conditions. It predicts the weather on a 1 km grid in 15 minute increments. The MetX interface is designed to clearly convey crucial information in stressful situations.

Bad weather can be disastrous for rocket launches. The launch of China’s Long March 2E satellite was aborted when it encountered high-altitude winds in 1992. Apollo 12 was struck by lightning shortly after liftoff in 1969, severely damaging some instruments. Fortunately, the mission continued successfully.

For NASA, improving short-term forecasts could be a lifeline. They can be just as important, although perhaps less serious, in other situations. Organizers of events such as Wimbledon are heavy users of ultra-local forecasts, even tracking individual clouds to determine whether heavy downpours are imminent.

A future public local forecast service could be popular. The national outlook for next month might be less interesting than whether you’ll be rained out to go shopping in the next half hour.