New report suggests Democrats have better odds in some upcoming Senate races : NPR

A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:

November’s midterms will determine the balance of power in Congress for at least the following two years. The latest Cook Political Report suggests the odds are shifting in favor of Democrats, at least in some Senate races. Even so, retaking control the Upper Chamber will still be an uphill battle. And joining us to discuss all this is Senate and governor’s editor at the Cook Political Report, Jessica Taylor.

So, Jessica, what changed that seems to have given Democrats a bit of a boost here?

JESSICA TAYLOR: Really, it’s President Trump’s falling approval ratings. when you look at just – he is at nadir in popularity and approval ratings. He’s hovering right at 40% or just below 40%. We’ve seen special elections across the country where Democrats have been more energized. We had a congressional race last week in Georgia where the Democrat did not win, but overperformed by 25 points. So Georgia is one of the races that we have shifted in Democrats’ favor with the incumbent there, Jon Ossoff, looking, you know, still going to be a competitive race.

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.

TAYLOR: These races in Georgia and North Carolina are always close. But you look at where the president is. He’s mired in an unpopular war. The ceasefire is so tenuous, as you all have been discussing on the program, gas prices are skyrocketing. The economy – he’s at his lowest numbers on the economy and on immigration, which used to be sort of his secret sauce. And so all of these things are reflecting upon his party, because, really, the midterms, they’re a referendum on the President’s party.

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And you mentioned the word nadir. For all the non-word nerds out there, nadir means the lowest point of a situation. I had to look it up, Jessica, just to be honest here. So, what are the thoughts there? Is that – I mean, are Republicans feeling that, fine, even though it feels like this is the worst it could possibly get, it’s all up from here, the sky’s the limit?

TAYLOR: They do feel like there will be an upswing, but that’s not guaranteed. I mean, you had President Trump over the weekend say, you know, maybe oil prices will be lower, maybe they’ll be higher. He’s not a reliable, on-message messenger, which we know over the past decade, and little things can send the market spiraling. They’ve got to address the economy. They’ve got to address inflation, and everything that’s happening in the Middle East is making that worse, and it’s reflecting upon the Senate races overall. And on where Democrats are just more enthused than Republicans, I think that Democrats have recruited strong candidates in some of these races that we have shifted, like North Carolina, where they’ve gotten former governor Roy Cooper in that contest. He’s won while Trump has been on the ballot, so voters are used to splitting their ticket. We’ve seen consistent polling of him leading the former RNC chair who Trump handpicked to run in that state, Michael Whatley. In Ohio, you have Sherrod Brown, who lost last cycle, but overperformed Kamala Harris in the state enough that if this is a, you know, D+5, D+6 environment, as the generic ballot tells us, that that race is very much in place. So that’s one of the reasons that we shifted it from lean Republican into toss up.

MARTÍNEZ: North Carolina and Georgia both are now in the leaning Democrat category – right? – for the Cook Political Report?

TAYLOR: Yes.

MARTÍNEZ: OK. So but even if those states come through, how does that position the Democrats in terms of the Senate for the next term?

TAYLOR: Our current projection is that they can gain between one to three seats. There’s still a very volatile seat in Maine where there’s a Democratic primary that could not end up the way that national Democrats want with Graham Platner leading, right now, the current governor, Janet Mills. That’s a seat that – the only seat up that was held by a Republican that was won by Kamala Harris. And so that’s a seat you can’t leave on the table. But even if they run a perfect game, they’ve still got to put more Republican seats into that toss-up column. Alaska is the most likely at this point to possibly shift. We’re watching that very closely. But right now, if they win all of the races in our toss-up column and the lean Democrat column, they would still fall one seat short of the four seats they need for a majority.

MARTÍNEZ: Alright. That’s Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report.

Jessica, thank you very much.

TAYLOR: Thank you.

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