NFL draft storylines: what should the Jets do at No 2 and will the Cowboys trade up? | NFL

Who will be drafted No. 2 overall?

The draft begins this year with the second pick. We know that Fernando Mendoza will be the Las Vegas Raiders selection first overall. With the second pick, the Jets have a decision to make: edge rusher David Bailey of Texas Tech or hybrid defender Arvell Reese of Ohio State.

Bailey is widely considered the best pure edge rusher in the class. He has a similar profile to Denver’s Nik Bonitto, an edge rusher who relies on his unlearnable first step speed. The only problem: Bailey is a liability against the run.

The Jets already have Will McDonald, a dip-and-rip style passer similar to Bailey. But after trading Jermaine Johnson to the Titans, they are missing some spice. Bailey has the potential to break up the play, but the Jets need to determine if he’s good enough against the run to be an every-down player or if he’s a pass rush specialist.

Reese is the best player in the class. At Ohio State, he played as an off-ball linebacker and part-time edge rusher. He is an explosive, physical and intelligent defender who can play on the defensive front. Most teams project Reese to play full-time in the NFL, but there is a limited sample of him playing that role in college. There have been some comparisons to Micah Parsons, who moved from linebacker to edge-rusher after the Cowboys drafted him in 2021. But Parsons had been an edge-rusher in high school, and he wasn’t the same caliber of linebacker prospect as Reese.

Drafting Reese to be purely an edge rusher would be a gamble. He recently told ESPN’s Ben Solak that he didn’t know what he was doing when he was released to rush the passer and that he was making his moves on instinct. The Jets are in desperate need of defensive playmakers, and they have expressed a desire to become a more versatile defense. Reese fits that mindset. He’s the kind of player you structure a defense around rather than forcing into a box. He can play without the ball on first downs and line up anywhere along the front in obvious passing situations. Letting go of it would be a mistake.

The Titans Really pick Jeremiah Love at No. 4?

Beyond Mendoza and the Raiders, the highest-scoring pick of the mock draft season was Notre Dame’s running back against the Tennessee Titans.

There are endless debates about the value of selecting high running backs in the first round. But if we look at recent history, the success rate on leading guards in the first round is quite impressive. Since the 2016 draft, seven running backs have been selected in the top 15, and it’s a who’s who of All-Pros: Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Ashton Jeanty.

Of course, you can discuss the impact of these individual players on the success of a team., but it is undeniable that five of the seven were successes. Only Fournette was disappointing. With Jeanty, it’s too early to tell.

Things get out of whack when you look at the history of late first-round picks at the position. But at the top of the rankings, teams have done a solid job of distinguishing which running backs deserve a high selection. What sets all of these backs apart is the value they bring in the passing game, such as receiving threats or blocking.

Love is no different. He poses a significant threat as a runner and receiver. About 48.5 percent of his career rushing yards came on explosive runs of at least 15 yards, one of the highest marks in college football history. As a receiver, he averaged 10.4 yards per reception during his senior year in college. Love does most of his damage by making tacklers miss and turning solid gains into big plays.

New head coach Robert Saleh could pound the table for another defensive difference maker, and there will be plenty available on the board. But the Titans’ goal is to find another offensive anchor that they can pair with second-year quarterback Cam Ward. In terms of value, the addition of Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate makes more sense. But maybe love is just too tempting to pass up.

Will Ty Simwill pson be a first round pick?

Simpson is this year’s most polarizing prospect. To some, he’s the most polished, ready-to-go quarterback in the class. For others, he’s a fragile, small and inaccurate passer who should have stayed in college for another year. There is no doubt, however, that he will be the second quarterback selected.

Simpson started just one year in college, playing in a hyper-aggressive, pro-style offense at Alabama under the tutelage of former Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Through the first eight weeks of the season, he was off. He’s a small, agile quarterback with skills similar to Brock Purdy.

Like Purdy, Simpson is a distributor more than a playmaker. Everything about his game is fearless: he’s tough in the pocket, challenges defenses vertically and rips up throws in the middle of the field with good anticipation. He’s not going to wow you with his athleticism, but he has just enough juice to threaten the lead on rollouts and is a talented thrower on the move.

During the first half of last season at Alabama, Simpson’s intelligence and positional savvy popped off the screen. All he did was fast. But during the second half of the year it collapsed. He has battled injuries. Its accuracy has eroded. His decision-making was erratic. As opposing defensive coordinators gathered more film on Simpson, he struggled to adjust. NFL teams evaluate Simpson on a small sample size. Will they have the Simpsons from the first half or the second half?

The story of quarterbacks playing with Simpson’s height and weight makes for grim reading. Over the past 20 years, only six quarterbacks who are 6 feet 1 inch or shorter and 215 pounds or less have started more than 40 games in the NFL: Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Michael Vick, Kyler Murray and Bryce Young. All these players had A super-skills that are easy to define, whether it’s their athleticism, intellect, or precision. And even though Wilson, Mayfield and Brees were small, they had the body armor needed to survive the NFL’s harsh punishments.

Simpson falls short of these measures. Add to that that only 13 of the 118 quarterbacks in the last decade have started 21 games or fewer: Mitch Trubisky, Kyler Murray, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Dwayne Haskins and Anthony Richardson. Most of these quarterbacks had either power feet or a high-powered arm. Teams bet on their potential. Simpson aligns himself more with Jones and Haskins.

Three teams make sense for Simpson: the Jets, Cardinals and Steelers. Everyone needs a quarterback. Simpson doesn’t profile as a traditional Mike McCarthy quarterback, which likely takes the Steelers out of the mix. Simpson’s ideal fit would be with the Cardinals, likely the No. 2 seed in the second round.

Who will exchange?

When you have insight into blue-chip prospects in premium positions, it means one thing: deals!

The consensus surefire prospects in the 2026 class are linebackers, safeties and interior offensive linemen. There’s a steep dropoff between these highly regarded prospects and the meat of the class, so little separates the 12th best player from the 45th. Finding value – both the position selected and the distance the player is in – is the name of the game. And teams have long been reluctant to take positions deemed least valuable with the highest picks.

Almost every team in the top 10 will make the same calculation: Do we take an exceptional prospect at a non-premium position, do we take a lesser prospect at a luxury position, or do we trade up to add more picks and select a player in a lineup that better represents their talent?

Most likely, the rebuilding teams at the top of the order will attempt to move back from their spot to put together more picks without these traditional foundational players on the board.

Added to this is the fact that six teams ranked in the top 14 will enter next season believing they can compete for the Super Bowl: the Commanders (No. 7), the Chiefs (No. 9), the Bengals (No. 10), the Cowboys (No. 12), the Rams (No. 13) and the Ravens (No. 14). Barring an injury to their quarterback, neither of these teams will expect to pick in this range again next year. And all of them are just a few spots away from being able to advance and select one of the premium players in the class. According to draft insiders, the league’s overall opinion on the class means trades will be cheaper than in recent years, which should fuel a lot of movement in the first round.

Arizona, picked at No. 3, and Cleveland, picked at No. 6, are two leading candidates to move down. Most of the pre-draft speculation about who will move up focuses on the Rams and Cowboys. After landing an additional first-round pick in a trade last year, the Rams could move up from 13th overall to the top six on draft night to secure the best wide receiver on their board. The Cowboys have their eyes on a defensive difference maker. If they don’t believe one of their top targets will move up to 12th overall, they could move up to 3rd overall to secure a player they believe is the best in the draft.