NWSL Decision Day schedule, scenarios: Racing Louisville, North Carolina Courage battle for last playoff spot
The storylines for Sunday’s second NWSL decision day may be simple as two teams battle it out for the final playoff spot, but circumstances vary for the bottom two teams in the mix. Playoff regular North Carolina may have a chance, but it’s Racing Louisville that’s leading the charge for eighth place — and just might book its first trip to the postseason in the process.
Louisville not only has a two-point advantage heading into the final weekend, but also has a favorable matchup awaiting them on Sunday against Bay FCa team whose playoffs officially ended weeks ago and are on the verge of a coaching change that all but guarantees the club has an eye on the future even as it closes out the season. THE Courage have less margin for error – they need a win to cap a tumultuous regular season on the field, but face a Gotham FC team that will be incentivized to win in order to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs.
This is an unusual position for both playoff hopefuls, but especially for Louisville, which has been close to the playoffs but is a regular at the bottom of the bracket. That’s not to say their status as favorites to reach the playoffs is undeserved: steady progress under head coach Bev Yanez has subtly improved their standing in recent years, another contrast to a Courage team that underwent a change in direction when Sean Nahas was fired over the summer. Questions about how deep a playoff run Louisville can actually achieve are valid but, at the moment, seem almost secondary. The most pressing question: Is this finally Louisville’s year?
NWSL Decision Day Schedule
Sunday November 2
Kansas City Current against the San Diego wave | 3:00 p.m. | ESPN, Fubo (Try for free)
Utah Royals against Washington Spiri | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
Portland Thorns against. Houston Dash | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
Orlando Pride against. Seattle’s reign | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
North Carolina Courage vs. Gotham FC | 5 p.m. | ESPN, Fubo (Try for free)
Louisville vs. Bay FC race | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
Chicago Stars vs. Angel City | 5 p.m. | NWSL+
A tale of two inconsistent teams
A playoff spot comes with a desperate optimism that anything really is possible on a one-off basis, but even then there’s something unglamorous about a battle for eighth place. Louisville and the Courage are middling teams for a reason this season and therefore share some commonalities, but the Courage’s campaign is an extreme example that has proven very costly.
If the rankings were rearranged based on expected goal differential, both would rank in the top eight alongside almost every other team in the playoffs. However, neither team has lived up to their potential this season – Louisville’s goal differential is -4 despite a 2.56 xG rating, while Courage’s season has played out like asking a data-savvy person to make a joke about expectations versus reality. The three-time NWSL champions currently own the second-best xGD in the league at 9, but instead have a goal differential of minus three, that difference between expected goal difference and actual goal difference the worst in the league for top nine teams.
Both teams have just three wins in their last 11, but the Courage’s underperformance this season means Louisville’s imperfections pale in comparison. Inconsistency took its toll on the Courage’s season, making the prospect of reaching the playoffs seem like an uphill battle. They will benefit from the fact that Gotham has been inconsistent recently, recording just one win in their last six games, but it will be up to the Courage to get the job done on Sunday. Gotham will be aiming for victory so it can move up from seventh to third place if other results go in its favor, which could well play into Courage’s cheat code: individual genius.
Individual talent leads the way
For Louisville and the Courage, inconsistency reigned supreme during their seasons, but each team had a standout forward who provided much-needed reliability. that of Louisville Emma Sears and Courage Manaka Matsukubo each has 10 goals, or almost 30% of the goals scored by their team this season. Sears and Matsukubo, both tied for third in the race for the NWSL golden boot, are essentially in a class of their own on their teams — Taylor Flint is Louisville’s second-leading scorer with four goals, while Brianna Pinto fills that spot in North Carolina with three goals.
Matsukubo’s impressive form will be key for the Courage on Sunday, his individual talents potentially enough to break through a Gotham defense that has conceded the fewest regular season goals so far this season. The Courage could, however, be too dependent on Matsukubo on Sunday, especially given the team’s collective offensive performance this season. They underperformed their expected goals total by a margin of seven goals, behind Bay FC in that regard, one of several issues that could soon become problems for next season as they recruit a head coach with Nathan Thackeray acting in an acting capacity.
Louisville may also be too reliant on Sears, but Sunday’s circumstances favor them in almost every way. While the Courage’s offensive inconsistencies may be exacerbated by Gotham’s stout defense, Sears and Louisville could benefit from Bay’s fragility on the back end. U.S. Women’s National Team player Sears is a tough physical matchup for any defense, but Bay’s hasn’t covered herself in glory this season, outperforming her expected goals total of 34.62 while conceding 40 goals so far.
