Patriots vs. Texans prediction, pick, odds, where to watch, live stream, kickoff time

Only one ticket to the AFC Championship will be secured Sunday afternoon when the Houston Texans and New England Patriots face off in Foxborough in the divisional round.

Both clubs emerged victorious from the wild card weekend, thanks in large part to tremendous efforts on the defensive side of the ball. Against Pittsburgh, Houston gobbled up Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense, limiting them to just six points in a blowout victory that saw two touchdowns scored by the defense. They also allowed Pittsburgh to move the chains on just two of its 14 third-down opportunities. Meanwhile, New England had an equally stellar defensive day in their win over the Chargers. They were able to beat Justin Herbert six times in the winning effort, while limiting Los Angeles’ offense to just one field goal.

With these defenses making strides, this poses quite a challenge for two of the brightest young quarterbacks the league has to offer, CJ Stroud and Drake Maye. For Stroud, this is his third straight year to advance to the divisional round, but he failed to secure a conference championship berth in his two previous visits to this playoff plateau. As for Maye, he’s looking to become the eighth-youngest quarterback ever to win a division game.

The stage is therefore rather well prepared for a hell of a match at Gillette Stadium. Before we dive deeper into this game, let’s make sure you have all the information you need to experience this game.

Where to watch Texans vs. Patriots live

• Date: Sunday January 18 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough)
• TV: ESPN, ABC | Flow: fubo, try for free
• Odds: Patriots -3, O/U 40.5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Key questions

Can the left side of the OL Patriots hold up?

The left side of New England’s offensive line – led by rookies Will Campbell (left tackle) and Jared Wilson (left guard) – had a game to forget against the Chargers last week. Campbell finished his night allowing five total pressures to go along with one sack, while Wilson also gave up five pressures and two sacks. No good. Drake Maye was pressed quite a bit in this game, which contributed to his two turnovers (an interception and a fumble). The challenge becomes even tougher now that they will have to fend off a deadly Texans pass rush led by Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Houston finished second in the NFL with a 42.5% pressure rate this season, and if they can get to Maye early and often, it will significantly tip the scales in the Texans’ favor.

Will CJ Stroud protect the football?

What was lost in Houston’s dominant win over the Steelers on Monday night was that Stroud had a bad game. While the Texans gave up 30 points for the game, 13 of those points were scored by defense. The most shocking aspect of Stroud’s performance was his inability to protect the ball. He threw an ill-advised interception in the red zone and committed five total fumbles in the game (two lost). Both lost fumbles were strip sacks, and while some responsibility can be placed on the shoulders of the offensive line in that regard, Stroud also held onto the ball too long at times, allowing Pittsburgh’s pass to go to the house. He also seems to have had a communication problem with his center, who also saw the ball hit the turf. Stroud was fortunate that his defense saved him, as it only allowed three points on his three turnovers. If he gives the ball away this time with MVP candidate Drake Maye on the other side, it could be a different story.

Has New England’s defense really improved?

One of the big takeaways from New England’s win over the Chargers was how dominant their defense was. While we expected this kind of brilliance from the Houston unit, the Patriots defense seemed to improve against Los Angeles. They held Justin Herbert and Co. to just three points, sacked him six times and allowed just one conversion on 10 third-down attempts. While this is exceptional, it’s fair to wonder how much of this dominance was due to the Patriots’ changing game and how much of it the Chargers weren’t ready for at the moment. After all, Los Angeles’ offensive line had been in shambles all season after losing both star tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and Herbert was one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the league during the regular season. However, if this is a sign that this New England defense has moved up a level, it raises its ceiling remarkably.

X factor

While there is no official word yet, it appears the Texans will be without their No. 1 pass-catching weapon, Nico Collins, after he left Monday’s game with a concussion. It’s a blow to the offense, but Houston saw veteran Christian Kirk step up in a playoff win over Pittsburgh, catching eight of his nine targets on the night for 144 yards and a touchdown. They’ll need another performance like that for the Texans to be able to move the ball with confidence and consistency. If he can’t, and no other pass catchers step up, that will once again see Stroud hold on to the ball much longer than he should and open the door for New England pass rushers to take him down throughout the game.

Texans vs. Patriots prediction, picks

Houston’s pass rush is a real challenge for the Patriots’ offensive line. However, I think New England’s defense could prove just as big an adversary for C.J. Stroud, especially if he does not have Collins. It looks like the Patriots will have star corner Christian Gonzalez for this matchup after he also suffered a concussion on Sunday, further emboldening the idea that this New England unit can shut down the Texans’ offense and potentially create a turnover or two. If Stroud coughs the football up, the Patriots should be able to capitalize more than Pittsburgh was able to a week ago. 

On top of that, this is also a tough spot for the Texans from a scheduling perspective. They just had to play on the road in Pittsburgh, fly back to Houston, and then jump back on the plane to head to New England, all on the short week. That’s a lot of adversity to overcome, so I see the Patriots advancing to the AFC Championship. 

Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 20 | Pick: Patriots -3