Prison guard set to testify in Epstein case, a magnet for conspiracy theories
The release of nearly 3.5 million records linked to late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has given the public new material to examine regarding his alleged crimes, people connected to his alleged criminal network and the circumstances of his death.
The documents, the manner in which the case continues to surface in news reports, and the information gaps that remain, have given rise to multiple conspiracy theories, none of which have been proven. Examples include, among others, that Mr. Epstein operated and directed an elite child trafficking network that spanned multiple countries and involved powerful figures; that he was a spy linked to the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad; and that his death, considered a suicide, was in reality a homicide committed to protect powerful people.
Public access to these files aims to ensure transparency regarding criminal networks, false statements by public figures and failures of the justice system. But the case also challenges people to distinguish between factual evidence and unproven conspiracy theories. As the public shows declining trust in institutions and navigates a sea of information — some false, some supercharged by social media platforms — these and other theories may gain traction.
Why we wrote this
Public information about Jeffrey Epstein has allowed people to better understand the convicted sex offender’s life and crimes, but it has also fueled conspiracy theories about him and his clientele. These kinds of theories – difficult to definitively prove or disprove – can be difficult to dislodge.
More details could be revealed on Monday, when Tova Noel, a guard on duty at New York’s Metropolitan Correctional Center at the time of Mr. Epstein’s death, is expected to testify before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.
On May 6, a federal judge unsealed an apparent suicide note that had been found by Mr. Epstein’s former cellmate. The late financier reportedly wrote: “It’s a pleasure to be able to choose your moment to say goodbye. » But neither Ms. Noel’s testimony nor the note, experts say, are likely to put an end to the conspiracy theories.
“Information doesn’t always determine beliefs,” says Joseph Uscinski, a professor at the University of Miami who has studied public opinion and the media through the lens of conspiracy theories. “It’s a human way of thinking. People draw conclusions first, the evidence will come later, if at all.”
In fact, a recent Ipsos poll found that nearly 65 percent of Americans think the government is most likely withholding information about Mr. Epstein’s death, and nearly 75 percent think the government is withholding information about his company’s customer base.
Such beliefs often persist because they tug at threads of truth, says Mark Fenster, a professor at the University of Florida who studies conspiracy theories. He says Mr. Epstein fits a common narrative about figures who abuse their influence. Reports about others involved with Mr. Epstein could also fit this narrative, he said. “Conspiracy theories are a kind of storytelling device. It’s a way of making sense of things that seem random and difficult to connect.”
In a case like Mr. Epstein’s, theories can be both unproven and difficult to disprove. On the one hand, members of Congress believe that many files have not yet been made public by the Justice Department. Regarding allegations of a trafficking network of numerous elite clients, the evidence so far does not include a “client list” or equivalent.
A jail ticket, online searches and bank deposits
The House Oversight Committee believes a prison guard could help shed light on parts of the story. Ms Noel is believed to be the last person to see Mr Epstein alive.
Theories are circulating online that Ms. Noel and another guard helped orchestrate a cover-up, alleging that the guards slept while on duty and allowed an unidentified person into the area, seen in surveillance footage, the night of Mr. Epstein’s death. The theories also include Justice Department allegations that the guards falsified their security records. The DOJ charged Ms. Noel and her colleague with falsifying records, although the charges were later dropped following an agreement to deferred prosecution. No evidence has surfaced to support the other accusations.
The House committee sent a letter to Ms. Noel on March 13 stating that, based on “public reports, documents released by the Department of Justice, and documents obtained by the committee, the committee believes that you have information that will assist it in its investigation.”
The committee is trying to piece together Mr. Epstein’s final moments. Ms. Noel and another guard found Mr. Epstein unconscious, hanging from a piece of sheet in his cell. Committee members, including Chairman James Comer, a Republican from Kentucky, want to question Ms. Noel about material revealed in Justice Department files that went unanswered in previous investigations.
Mr. Comer told Fox News in March that the committee would question Ms. Noel about 12 cash deposits, between November 2018 and July 2019, reported by JPMorgan Chase. One was for $5,000 deposited into Ms. Noel’s account 10 days before Mr. Epstein’s death. These 12 filings were not investigated by the Department of Justice.
The committee also hopes to examine Ms Noel’s internet search history. Hours before Mr. Epstein died on August 10, 2019, records show, Ms. Noel sought information about the status of Mr. Epstein’s case. During a 2021 DOJ investigation, Ms. Noel said she did not remember carrying out the searches.
“We have a lot of questions,” Mr. Comer told Fox.
Ms. Noel has not yet commented publicly on her upcoming testimony or other aspects of the Epstein investigation.
At the time of his death, Mr. Epstein was awaiting trial after being indicted by the federal government on one count of sex trafficking of minors and one count of sex trafficking conspiracy.
The night before his death, a federal judge unsealed documents in a lawsuit against Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell. They revealed the accounts of victims, including the late Virginia Giuffre, who previously said they were abused or forced to engage in sexual acts with public figures, including politicians and members of the royal family.
Records about Mr. Epstein’s time at the Metropolitan Correctional Center have become a hunting ground for Internet sleuths. As people reviewed prison surveillance footage released by the FBI last year, some discovered a “missing minute” – a gap in the video. This fueled a conspiracy theory that the video was altered, removing evidence that anyone had interacted with Mr Epstein before his death.
Then-U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said the missing footage was caused by an overnight system reset. Congress later released a full video including the missing minute. This revealed nothing unusual.
Yet conspiracy theories persist, including one sparked by something that actually appears in the video.
Camera footage from the night of Mr. Epstein’s death shows a figure who appears to be in an orange jumpsuit walking up the stairs toward the level of the prison where Mr. Epstein’s cell was located, according to an FBI memo released by the Justice Department in late January. In the memo, the office speculates that the shape “could possibly be that of a detainee.” The DOJ said it was “possible that someone carried an inmate’s laundry or bedding down the stairs” but that the inmates would have been locked up at the time.
Whether Ms. Noel is able to shed light on this incident or whether other relevant information is revealed at Monday’s hearing may not matter to those who believe Mr. Epstein’s death was anything other than a suicide.
“Whatever they believe at the beginning of the testimony, they will probably repeat it by the end of the testimony,” says Professor Uscinski of the University of Miami.
A complicated story
It can be difficult for public figures, such as those named in the Epstein files, to separate themselves from speculation about their ties to Mr. Epstein.
Appearing in the records does not constitute evidence of wrongdoing. But since Mr. Epstein’s arrest in July 2019, conspiracy theories have been circulating about high-profile people who knew him or had relationships with him. For example, former President Bill Clinton, who appeared in several photos with Mr. Epstein, is known to have flown to Mr. Epstein’s private island, Little Saint James. Other notable visitors to the island included physicist Stephen Hawking, model Naomi Campbell and lawyer Alan Dershowitz. Mr. Clinton gave testimony before the Oversight Committee in February. Briton Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor – formerly known as Prince Andrew and brother of King Charles III – has been stripped of his title and is under investigation over Epstein’s documents and photos.
Speculation also followed President Donald Trump about his association with Mr. Epstein.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Epstein were reportedly friends until, according to Mr. Trump, they had a falling out in the early 2000s. Their connection is documented in the Epstein files, in which Mr. Trump is mentioned more than 38,000 times. The files include accusations that Mr. Trump assaulted a woman in the 1980s and that he knew about Mr. Epstein’s sex trafficking. Mr. Trump has denied both accusations.
More recent speculation involves both Mr. Trump and first lady Melania Trump and their ties to Mr. Epstein.
Ms. Trump’s name appears in several emails from the Epstein files, indicating that she communicated with Ms. Maxwell, Mr. Epstein’s partner. On April 9, Ms. Trump held an unexpected press conference to deny any relationship with Mr. Epstein or Ms. Maxwell, and to refute a theory that Mr. Epstein introduced her to Mr. Trump.
“Many false images and statements about Epstein and me have been circulating on social media for years now,” Ms. Trump said in a prepared statement. “Be careful what you believe.”
Ms. Trump’s denials of her ties to Mr. Epstein and Ms. Maxwell have not been substantiated. But her attempt to push back against those who link her to the couple highlights the power and reach ideas – whether based on fact or speculation – can have when they take hold of a section of the public, Professor Uscinski says.
“Too often we focus on theories, not people. Conspiracy theories are just ideas,” he adds. Instead, focus on the facts and concrete steps taken, he says. “People do things.”
