Rainforests pushed to breaking point by new demands for resources, report says | Deforestation
Growing extraction of rainforest resources is pushing the Amazon and similar biomes toward breaking point, a report says.
According to the analysis, new demands for essential minerals, biofuels and paper pulp – used rapidly, in processed foods and in packaging – are exacerbating existing pressures from cattle ranching, monocultures, oil and logging.
Mining, in particular, has a much larger environmental footprint than previously thought due to secondary impacts, such as water pollution and the construction of roads, settlements and other infrastructure developments. Between 10% and a third of the world’s forests are already affected and this proportion is expected to increase.
According to the authors, this highlights the urgent need to replace and reduce the use of products from forested regions, rather than simply adding new forms of consumption, as is currently the case.
The report tracks commodity trends that threaten forests in the Amazon, Congo Basin and Southeast Asia, and weaken their ability to regulate temperature, store carbon, recycle water and shelter nature.
Cattle ranching, agriculture and gold mining remain by far the biggest threats, according to the study by Dutch research organization Profundo and commissioned by Rainforest Foundation Norway. All three are expected to continue their expansion.
While the extractive threats of energy, mining and e-commerce are typically examined in isolation, the authors argue that they must be understood together as a combined attack on the world’s forests.
“This creates pressure that rainforests cannot withstand,” said Ingrid Turgen of the Rainforest Foundation Norway. “Our main message is that this compilation – one on top of the other – affects all three rainforest basins (Amazon, Congo and Southeast Asia) and that if governments do nothing about it, places like the Amazon will face a pretty bleak scenario. »
The 10.2% increase in beef production planned by the Brazilian government is expected to cause at least 57,000 km² of deforestation by 2034, the report predicts. This figure could be considerably higher if the current trend of moving livestock farming to the Amazon continues. Over the same period, global meat production is expected to increase by 13%, driven by population growth.
Open-pit gold mines already cover 1.9 million hectares of the Amazon biome and this figure is likely to increase due to expected demand for jewelry (accounting for 43% of gold usage), technology (7%) and bullion held by investors and central banks. The report reveals a clear correlation between gold prices and deforestation linked to gold mining in the Brazilian Amazon. Based on recent trends, this is expected to lead to an additional 375 km² of deforestation by 2028.
Oil, gas and coal play an increasingly important role in destroying rainforests, directly through drilling and indirectly through global warming. The Amazon is one of the fastest growing fossil fuel frontier regions, with exploration and extraction activities in Brazil, Suriname, Ecuador, Colombia and Peru. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas reserves identified between 2022 and 2024 were in the South American rainforest and offshore regions.
Last year, the Democratic Republic of Congo approved the exploration of 52 new oil blocks covering 1.24 million square kilometers in the Cuvette Centrale peatlands, the world’s largest terrestrial carbon sink and a critical ecosystem with high biodiversity.
Additional pressure comes from the mining of critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, used for batteries and other technologies used in the transition to cleaner energy. The study estimates that cumulative deforestation linked to the global fleet of electric vehicles will be between 1,500 km² and 4,700 km² by 2050, depending on current trends.
This represents barely 1% of the total deforestation expected over this period, but the secondary effects are also considerable. The environmental impact of mines can extend over a radius of 50 km, due to contamination of water and soil, the report notes. Mining also tends to disproportionately affect indigenous territories and other relatively intact forest areas.
“The cumulative impacts of mining on forest areas have probably been significantly underestimated for many years,” said Veera Mo of Rainforest Foundation Norway.
Another source of growing pressure on the forest is the biofuel sector, which claims to be a sustainable alternative to oil and gas for aviation and shipping. However, this may lead to clearing of forests for soy, tallow, palm and ethanol. The report estimates that 52 million hectares of additional cropland will be needed to meet projected global demand for biofuels by 2030. For biofuel-related soy crops alone, between 31,600 and 35,000 km² of Amazon vegetation will be cleared by 2035.
Pressures on oil palm are also increasing as processed foods become increasingly popular across the world. So far, the main impact has been on forests in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia. But the report says the Congo Basin could be a new frontier for oil palm, as processed food markets grow alongside urbanization in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.
Other disposable products marketed as “green” in faraway urban cities may also worsen the health of tropical rainforests. The popularity of semi-synthetic viscose fiber (also known as rayon) adds to the pressure on Indonesia’s forests, as one of its main ingredients is wood pulp. Likewise, paper bags often touted as a “green” alternative to plastic carriers are not always sustainably sourced, nor is much of the packaging used for the rapidly growing e-commerce sector.
The report outlines possible solutions, including better transparency of supply chains and stricter enforcement of regulations. Recycling could also help reduce the need for new mine development. Ultimately, one of the main goals should be to reduce demand in consuming countries.
“A reduction in resource use cannot be avoided. There is no doubt that recycling is necessary, but it will not be enough,” said lead author Barbara Kuepper. “The overall resource usage is just too great. »
“Even in sectors where we hope for a transition, such as energy, the impact on forests is worrying. »
