Republicans Vulnerable to Losing Their Seats After Voting Yes on Trump Bill
Republicans representing districts with high registration rates of Medicaid could face the loss of mid-term seats of 2026 if they vote for “Big and Beau Bill” by Trump.
Recent changes to the bill would reduce approximately $ 1.1 billion of health expenditure and lead 11.8 million people who lose medical insurance of Medicaid during the next decade, according to new estimates from the Budget Budget of the Non -Sample Congress.
The bill also requires that valid adults aged 19 to 64 – including some parents of older children – are complicated and report at least 80 hours per month of work, vocational training, volunteering or education to maintain their coverage.
Nearly 80 million children, elderly people, disabled people, parents and adults without dependents are counting on Medicaid and the related children’s insurance program.
AP
Why it matters
If the Republican legislators lose their seats in mid-term, it could tip the balance of powers in the congress, which is currently controlled by the GOP in the two chambers. The party has particularly low margins in the House, where Trump’s bill is now faced with a major test after erasering the Senate on Tuesday, thanks to the vice-president JD Vance vice-president vote.
What to know
More than 60 republicans of the Chamber represent districts where registration in Medicaid is greater than the national average, according to a CNN analysis of the registration data and the results of the 2024 elections. Among these 64 GOP legislators, five – representatives Nick Begich, Juan Ciscomani, Ken Calvert, Jeff Hurd and Rob Bresnan – were the seats last November by thin margins of five points or less.
So, if they support Trump’s bill, they could risk losing their headquarters in next year’s elections. The five legislators are to be re -elected in 2026.
Rob Bresnahan
Bresnahan won 1.6% in 2024, and 26.2% of its district was registered in Medicaid. He previously joined four other Republican members of the conference Hispanic conference by signing a letter to the president of the Mike Johnson Chamber warning against the Medicaid Cups. In response to budgetary reconciliation negotiations, Bresnahan said: “If a bill is put before me that empties the advantages on which my neighbors count, I will not vote for that.”
He underlined in a press release of February 13, “these advantages are promises that were made to the inhabitants of the NEPA, and from where I come from, people hold out.” The press release noted that more than 200,000 beneficiaries of Medicadaid live in the 8th Congress district, more than a quarter of its population.
Bresnahan also declared in an article on Facebook of February 26: “I will fight to protect the families of the working class in the northeast of Pennsylvania and I will stand with President Trump to oppose Medicaid. My position on this subject does not and will not change.”
However, in a letter of April 17 to the Republican leaders of the Chamber, Bresnahan and 11 Republican colleagues declared that they promote the reform of Medicaid, so “it is a strong and lasting program for the years to come”. They added: “However, we cannot and will not support a final reconciliation bill which includes any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations.”
On May 22, Bresnahan and all members of the Pennsylvania Republican Chamber voted for the Big Bill Act of President Trump. Bresnahan said: “Medicaid will be protected while ensuring that taxpayers’ dollars are spent with caution.” He. “
Nick Begich
Begich won 2% in 2024, and 33.5% of his district is registered in Medicaid. He was a vocal supporter of the bill. Shortly after the vote, Begich declared in his office in Washington, DC, “This is a major bill for Alaska. It preserves the law on tax reductions and 2017 jobs, so it maintains low taxes for the working Americans, the Alaskans who work. It also stimulates a certain responsibility in some of the government programs.
In an article on X, he added: “The American people are counting on the congress to adopt the Big Beautiful Bill Act and keep the promises in America that will make our nation prosperous, strong and safe again.”
Juan Ciscomani
Ciscomani won 2.5% in 2024, with 22.9% of the district registered in Medicaid. In May, he voted to approve the “Big Beautiful Bill” of President Trump, which included cuts to the Medicaid services. Ciscomani has also joined the letter opposing the reduction of the coverage of Medicaid for vulnerable populations.
Ken Calvert
Calvert won 3.4% in 2024, with 27.4% MEDICAID registration in his district. He defended the bill, saying in News Channel 3: “Medicaid is doing well. We do nothing in Medicaid, apart from valid people, men and women under 65 who are healthy without children, have a work requirement of 20 hours per week or 20 hours of volunteer work. It is not too much to ask for assurance of Medicaid in your name.”
He also declared in an article on X: “I do not think it is fair to ask a taxpayer who works 40 hours a week to help his family send his taxes to provide medicadid advantages to healthy adults without children who refuse to work. Like most Americans, I support reasonable work requirements.”
Jeff Hurd
Hurd earned 5% in 2024 and 26.3% of his district was registered in Medicaid. He joined the letter opposing the discounts of the coverage of Medicaid and voted for the bill in the House. His 3rd Congress district has the highest rate of Medicaid beneficiaries in Colorado.
A spokesperson confirmed that the Hurd representative planned to vote “yes” on the bill, according to The Colorado sun.
What happens next
The One Big Beautiful Bill law adopted a key procedural vote in the early hours of Thursday. It remains to be seen if Johnson can rally the votes necessary to approve the package and move it to Trump’s office, where it would be signed.
