Shohei Ohtani the pitcher is outpacing the hitter, maybe all the way to a Cy Young

What’s next for Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani? The best baseball player in the world regularly exhausts superlatives and, it seems, every week achieves something unprecedented. That should continue to be the case, but the 2026 Major League Baseball season so far presents us with a different type of Ohtani – one whose value depends on his pitching rather than his hitting.

Before Sunday’s slate of games, Ohtani has a 0.7 WAR as the Dodgers’ primary designated hitter. As a pitcher, however, Ohtani was almost twice as valuable with a 1.3 WAR in his first five starts of the season. Now that he’s in his 30s, it’s not all that surprising that Ohtani’s (still immense) value is starting to take on a different texture.

All of this raises a tantalizing possibility for Ohtani in 2026. Here’s what his manager, Dave Roberts, said in February about Ohtani’s prospects for the current season:

“I think there’s definitely a lot more to it, and whatever my expectations of him are, his are going to, you know, exceed them. You know, I think it’s fair to say he expects to be in the Cy Young conversation, but you know, we just want to be healthy and get some starts and all the numbers and stats will take care of themselves. But man, this guy is such a disciplined worker and expects the most out of himself. “

Ohtani has won the MVP award in exactly half of his completed MLB seasons to date. While his pitching contributed significantly to each of these pieces of hardware, his high-end production at the plate was the main driver. Only once has he placed in the top 10 in Cy Young voting, and that was in 2022 (fifth place in American League voting). When it comes to individual accomplishments, a player who wrote the first season 50-50 and then followed it with a 55-homer campaign to win the Cy Young would be perhaps the most unthinkable thing in Ohtani’s growing cornucopia of unthinkable things.

On that note, here are the current National League WAR rankings for pitchers:

As you can see, Ohtani is very much in the mix and within the margin of error of first place. No, WAR is not the sole determinant of who wins the Cy Young, but it is a useful indicator for such things. Of course, a lot will depend on what kind of workload Ohtani is allowed as a pitcher this season. The Dodgers, aiming for the elusive three-peat in 2026, are keeping their gears oiled for October/November, and the priority as the season deepens will be keeping Ohtani healthy and in tip-top shape for the postseason. Let’s first note that the rankings might not allow the Dodgers the luxury of releasing their main players during the second half of the season. That is to say, competitive playoff runs could require Roberts to perform at his best almost daily through the end of September.

Second, Roberts and the Dodgers have already begun giving Ohtani a “day off” on occasions when he is the starting pitcher. Here’s Roberts again on Ohtani last week:

“His goal is to make every start, and for that there have to be compromises.”

Yes, there’s a governor in place on Ohtani’s usage, but it’s Ohtani the hitter who defers to Ohtani the pitcher — all so that, in Roberts’ own words, he can take every turn on the bump. The Dodgers, thanks to their impressive depth, are running a six-man rotation and will likely continue to do so for as long as that depth allows. That means each round would give Ohtani about 27 starts. That would put Ohtani close to a number of eligible innings, and these days, that’s enough to clear the workload bar for Cy Young, at least if you’re not Mason Miller.

As for the more general drift in Ohtani’s hitting and throwing, let’s take a closer look at the first trend that could end up putting a Cy within Ohtani’s reach.

Ohtani the hitter in 2026

Let’s note right away that Ohtani remains a very productive hitter with a 136 OPS+ over the season. In other words, Ohtani’s drop is much better than most hitters’. That said, it’s a decline: Over the last three full seasons, Ohtani has an OPS+ of 184. If you look at xwOBA, which gauges a hitter’s earned level of production based on quality of contact, Ohtani has been pretty unlucky this season, and it would be the opposite of shocking if he heats up the lava for a week or so and finds anything close to his usual level.

However, he experienced a general decline in hitting the ball. While his average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit rate, expected hit percentage, and contact damage remain the envy of almost every other hitter, they have also degraded significantly from his pre-2026 standards. The problem with great players is that they can still be great even in decline.

Let’s point out again that it’s early May and Ohtani is simply still fully capable of, say, a five-homer series, which would change the tenor of this discussion. For now, however, Ohtani, the hitter, has given ground to…

Ohtani the pitcher in 2026

It’s a sparkling ERA, to say the least, and if Ohtani had a qualifying innings count, he would lead the majors in this category by a remarkable margin. That comes out to an ERA+ of 688 (!), and it’s backed by a 1.98 FIP (he had a 1.90 FIP last season, so such underlying dominance isn’t entirely new). He has yet to allow a home run, he has struck out 28.6% of opposing batters and he has recorded a quality start in all five trips to base.

From a hardware standpoint, Ohtani still has elite fastball speed, and he still has the overloaded seven-pitch repertoire. Given what appears to be Ohtani’s increased focus on the throwing side of his game, having elements and mastery of such a deep mix is ​​enough to allow for total dominance. Ohtani, however, appears to have made some subtle adjustments this season on the mound. For starters, he added significant movement to his curve and cutter and slightly improved the braking of his slider and sinker. Additionally, Ohtani has adjusted by increasing his use of his splitter and curveball while toning down his slider.

No, Ohtani is not going to continue to have a 0.60 ERA, in part because he is not going to continue to have a .233 BABIP. Still, enough elements are in place to suggest he is capable of achieving a sustained higher level on the mound. If this is indeed the case, then Ohtani could throw and hit his path to World Series glory and individual glory, as opposed to, you know, hit and throw his path to these same things.

It’s always something with this guy.