The City-Killer Asteroid May Hit the Moon in 2032 — What Would Happen If We Blasted It With Nukes First?
The asteroid that could have killed the cities could still collide with the Moon. This is what the 2024 -year -old asteroid models say, after having previously suggested that the probability that the asteroid affecting the earth in December 2032 was around 3%. Since these past predictions, the chances of the asteroid to strike the earth have flowed, while its chances of hitting the moon have skyrocketed. Today, the probability of a lunar impact is around 4%.
Despite this low probability, scientists are already considering possible prevention strategies, aimed at diverting or destroying the asteroid before its potential impact. In fact, a team of scientists – including several NASA scientists – has published a prior article on arxiv In September 2025, weighing possible interventions, an option being to explode the asteroid with nuclear devices.
But what exactly will happen if scientists triggered a nuclear explosion on or near the 2024 year old surface, and what will happen if they don’t do it?
Find out more: The asteroid has 1% impact on the earth in 2032 – should we worry?
Asteroid NUMK 2024 YR4
Although tests of the idea are limited, it is believed that nuclear devices could divert or destroy 2024 years-that is to say if scientists are soon starting to work on the approach.
To divert the asteroid, scientists exploded a nuclear device around a strategically selected surface, erasing one of its faces and modifying its course by creating the push. Meanwhile, to destroy the asteroid, scientists pulled on a nuclear apparatus directly towards his heart, causing him in mitrooches.
According to study authors, nuclear deviation is not possible for 2024 years, that scientists reuse the old spacecraft or build new ones.
“The deviation missions have been evaluated and seem not very practical,” said the team in its article, thanks to the lack of information on the structure of the asteroid.
Indeed, while scientists have an idea of the diameter of the asteroid – about 220 feet in diameter, according to NASA – we know less about its mass and its composition, which would deeply affect any nuclear deviation plan. And although a recognition mission can reveal more about the asteroid, there is not much time for such a mission to occur and to bring back the details required for the development of a nuclear deviation approach, before the arrival of 2024 years.
“The best launch of recognition mission options at the end of 2028,” added the study authors in their article, “leaving only about three years for development.”
Nuclear destruction or robust disturbance
The best option, indicates the team, is the nuclear “robust disturbance” or destruction – to explode the asteroid before approaching with two nuclear devices. Only one of these devices would probably destroy the asteroid, suggested the authors of the study in their article, leaving the second device as a backup, “in case it is necessary.”
The development of these missions could start immediately, allowing additional planning years. “Robust nuclear disruption missions are also available,” added the team in its article, “with the launches between the end of 2029 and the end of 2031”. “”
Other non -nuclear options are also to be considered, deviating or destroying the asteroid by dragging it with a spacecraft. With these “kinetic” options, the deviation is once again less achievable than destruction, the “robust disturbances” missions available “with the launches between April 2030 and April 2032”, according to the newspaper.
Find out more: The city killer asteroid will not harm the earth, but it can rather hit the moon
An approach without a doubt?
Of course, another option would be to do nothing. Although an impact of 2024 years would not change the orbit of the Moon, it would create another massive crater on the lunar surface, sending significant debris to the earth. While most of these debris would burn in the atmosphere of the earth, some would remain, increasing the impacts of micro -meteoroids and threatening satellites, including the ISS and astronauts within it.
According to study authors, asteroid prevention strategies should be planned, whether or not the models continue to predict a collision.
“The lunar impact would most likely be excluded or in 2028, when the asteroid approaches the moon before the moon before 2032,” added the team in its article. “Even if the lunar impact is excluded, there is an important potential utility in the deployment of a recognition mission to characterize the asteroid.”
Find out more: The chances of asteroids of city killers impacting the moon spent from 3.8 to 4.3%
Article Sources
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