The GOP Is Raising Big Bucks for the Mid-Terms, But Is a 100-seat House Gain Really Feasible? – RedState

Yesterday, President Trump announced that he and his various campaign groups, including his Super PACs, have raised an unprecedented $1.5 billion dollars for the coming 2026 mid-term elections.

This is all part of his campaign strategy to hold both the U.S. House and Senate.  Of course, the former chamber, where the GOP currently has a 220 to 215 edge, is the one that is really in danger of flipping.  Remember, this strategy includes: 1) push GOP redistricting; 2) minimize retirements; 3) spend big; 4) take primary challengers off the table; 5) raise gobs more money; 6) ramp up recruiting; and 7) push certain salient issues.

Yesterday, President Trump announced that he and his various campaign groups, including his Super PACs, have raised an unprecedented $1.5 billion dollars for the coming 2026 mid-term elections.

This is all part of his campaign strategy to hold both the U.S. House and Senate.  Of course, the former chamber, where the GOP currently has a 220 to 215 edge, is the one that is really in danger of flipping.  Remember, this strategy includes: 1) push GOP redistricting; 2) minimize retirements; 3) spend big; 4) take primary challengers off the table; 5) raise gobs more money; 6) ramp up recruiting; and 7) push certain salient issues.

Trump has also set a numerical goal for the GOP in the House – picking up 100 more seats!  He believes that the re-redistrictings, plus, stopping the use of mail in ballots, will lead to a yuuuuuge victory.  

Thanks to Wikipedia, we have a list of the elections for House seats since 1856.  (One normally should be wary of Wikipedia, but this list seems to be correct.)  Only twice has one party picked up 100 plus seats – in 1894, when the out-party GOP won because of the Panic of 1893, and in 1932, when the out-party Democrats won because of the Great Depression.  (Also, twice, in 1874 and in 1890, the out-party won close to 100 seats because of scandal and economic issues.) 

Re-redistrictings are not going to be able to produce a 100-seat gain for the Republicans.  And it is impossible to know how a change in mail in ballot laws – if it could be accomplished – will impact the elections:

How many illegal ballots are cast in every election cycle? No one knows. Liberals assure us that the number is close to zero. But how could we know that? The hallmark of a successful fraud is that it is not discovered. And in most places, little effort is made to detect voter fraud, even when that is possible. Nevertheless, there are a large number of successful prosecutions of illegal voters.

Perhaps we should look at the ‘100-seat pick up’ as Donald Trump making an aspirational goal.  Remember, as my old Santorum 2000 colleague Salena Zito has written, we should take Donald Trump “seriously but not literally.” 

The President really just wants to hold onto power in the House.  And let’s not forget that all the GOP needs to do is to avoid losing three or more seats in the House.  That’s it.  

So, how is their grand strategy to maintain the majority in the House going?

The re-redistrictings are coming along.  Texas has passed its plan, which has shifted five seats toward the Republicans, assuming the GOP gains with Hispanic voters continue.  Ohio will happen, too.  Also, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri are still strongly considering it.  The Democrats are trying in California, but that is far from guaranteed.  Assuming all occur, however, the starting point for the elections will leave the Republicans with roughly a 220 to 207 advantage, with 8 toss-ups.  There might be other possibilities as well, especially if the Supreme Court revisits Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.  So, the re-redistricting is probably going to be a net benefit for Republicans.

There has been no further word on redoing the census, however.

The fundraising part, as mentioned above, is going gangbusters for the GOP.  The RNC, in particular, has a yuge edge of the DNC, the latter which is still paying off Kamala Harris’ debts.  

The President and the GOP are also constantly and aggressively moving to embarrass Democrats on the ‘80/20’ issues, which Ed Morrisey at our sister site, Hot Air, calls the “cornering strategy.”  The Democrats, because of their hatred of Trump, and their messianic ideology, just can’t stop politically dying on these unpopular hills.  Most recently, the Trump administration has made news with its popular crimefighting actions, especially the federal takeover of Washington DC, which is lowering crime.  Also, by threatening federal funding when Democrats promote ‘trans issues’, as recently happened in Virginia.  The administration is also still trying to deport the gang banging, illegal alien criminal ‘Maryland Man’, now to Uganda, and presumably will try again to remove the terror-supporting, crazed Arab antisemitic to somewhere else, soon.  Then, there are the administrations high profile efforts to combat antisemitism on college campuses and elsewhere.

And in a ‘member berry’ to the 1988 George H. W. Bush campaign, President Trump signed an executive order on flag burning, which contrary to the conventional wisdom, is not unconstitutional or illegal.  

Oh, how well I remember that 1988 presidential campaign, the first national campaign I followed in any great depth.  The Democrats were still complaining about the Bush campaign and it’s ‘despicable’ use of ‘wedge issues’ like flag burning all the way into the 00s.  

And there are other factors of importance to consider:

• Donald Trump’s approval rating is pretty much hovering where it has been during the second term, now at 45.3 percent approval to 51.5 percent disapproval, with the same mix of good and bad polls in the RCP.

• The economy still seems to be growing – “The Gross National Product has just been revised upward… and it’s a robust number.” 

• The realignment is proceeding at pace, and on the whole, things look better for the GOP than the Democrats.  For example, as the New York Times ruefully reports, “(o)f the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot. That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from.”

• The House is evenly divided, and has a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House. The Democrats won 41 seats in the House in 2018, then lost 14 and 9 seats in successive elections in 2020 and 2022, losing control during the latter year, only to pick up two seats in the 2024 elections (after endless, and almost surely tainted, counting in California). So, in the grand scheme of things, the GOP is not in big danger in 2026.  

We know that both parties understand that control of the U.S. House is up for grabs in 2026.  We know this because both are thinking outside the box – see the possible mid-term conventions being floated – and preparing for a tough and long campaign.

“We’ll (Just Have to) See What Happens.”

Trump has also set a numerical goal for the GOP in the House – picking up 100 more seats!  He believes that the re-redistrictings, plus, stopping the use of mail in ballots, will lead to a yuuuuuge victory.  

Thanks to Wikipedia, we have a list of the elections for House seats since 1856.  (One normally should be wary of Wikipedia, but this list seems to be correct.)  Only twice has one party picked up 100 plus seats – in 1894, when the out-party GOP won because of the Panic of 1893, and in 1932, when the out-party Democrats won because of the Great Depression.  (Also, twice, in 1874 and in 1890, the out-party won close to 100 seats because of scandal and economic issues.) 

Re-redistrictings are not going to be able to produce a 100-seat gain for the Republicans.  And it is impossible to know how a change in mail in ballot laws – if it could be accomplished – will impact the elections:

How many illegal ballots are cast in every election cycle? No one knows. Liberals assure us that the number is close to zero. But how could we know that? The hallmark of a successful fraud is that it is not discovered. And in most places, little effort is made to detect voter fraud, even when that is possible. Nevertheless, there are a large number of successful prosecutions of illegal voters.

Perhaps we should look at the ‘100-seat pick up’ as Donald Trump making an aspirational goal.  Remember, as my old Santorum 2000 colleague Salena Zito has written, we should take Donald Trump “seriously but not literally.” 

The President really just wants to hold onto power in the House.  And let’s not forget that all the GOP needs to do is to avoid losing three or more seats in the House.  That’s it.  

So, how is their grand strategy to maintain the majority in the House going?

The re-redistrictings are coming along.  Texas has passed its plan, which has shifted five seats toward the Republicans, assuming the GOP gains with Hispanic voters continue.  Ohio will happen, too.  Also, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri are still strongly considering it.  The Democrats are trying in California, but that is far from guaranteed.  Assuming all occur, however, the starting point for the elections will leave the Republicans with roughly a 220 to 207 advantage, with 8 toss-ups.  There might be other possibilities as well, especially if the Supreme Court revisits Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.  So, the re-redistricting is probably going to be a net benefit for Republicans.

There has been no further word on redoing the census, however.

The fundraising part, as mentioned above, is going gangbusters for the GOP.  The RNC, in particular, has a yuge edge of the DNC, the latter which is still paying off Kamala Harris’ debts.  

The President and the GOP are also constantly and aggressively moving to embarrass Democrats on the ‘80/20’ issues, which Ed Morrisey at our sister site, Hot Air, calls the “cornering strategy.”  The Democrats, because of their hatred of Trump, and their messianic ideology, just can’t stop politically dying on these unpopular hills.  Most recently, the Trump administration has made news with its popular crimefighting actions, especially the federal takeover of Washington DC, which is lowering crime.  Also, by threatening federal funding when Democrats promote ‘trans issues’, as recently happened in Virginia.  The administration is also still trying to deport the gang banging, illegal alien criminal ‘Maryland Man’, now to Uganda, and presumably will try again to remove the terror-supporting, crazed Arab antisemitic to somewhere else, soon.  Then, there are the administrations high profile efforts to combat antisemitism on college campuses and elsewhere.

And in a ‘member berry’ to the 1988 George H. W. Bush campaign, President Trump signed an executive order on flag burning, which contrary to the conventional wisdom, is not unconstitutional or illegal.  

Oh, how well I remember that 1988 presidential campaign, the first national campaign I followed in any great depth.  The Democrats were still complaining about the Bush campaign and its’ ‘despicable’ use of ‘wedge issues’ like flag burning all the way into the 00s.  

And there are other factors of importance to consider:

• Donald Trump’s approval rating is pretty much hovering where it has been during the second term, now at 45.3 percent approval to 51.5 percent disapproval, with the same mix of good and bad polls in the RCP.

• The economy still seems to be growing – “The Gross National Product has just been revised upward… and it’s a robust number.” 

• The realignment is proceeding at pace, and on the whole, things look better for the GOP than the Democrats.  For example, as the New York Times ruefully reports, “(o)f the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot. That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from.”

• The House is evenly divided, and has a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House. The Democrats won 41 seats in the House in 2018, then lost 14 and 9 seats in successive elections in 2020 and 2022, losing control during the latter year, only to pick up two seats in the 2024 elections (after endless, and almost surely tainted, counting in California). So, in the grand scheme of things, the GOP is not in big danger in 2026.  

We know that both parties understand that control of the U.S. House is up for grabs in 2026.  We know this because both are thinking outside the box – see the possible mid-term conventions being floated – and preparing for a tough and long campaign.

“We’ll (Just Have to) See What Happens.”