The NFL draft opened with a gamble, a surprise and a sign of things to come
The NFL Draft kicked off with its first round Thursday night, as most teams made their initial selections in what became a multi-day affair.
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The Las Vegas Raiders started the festivities by selecting Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick. Even if the selection of Mendoza was a foregone conclusion, the course of events was full of twists and turns.
Here are the key takeaways from the opening night of the draft.
Biggest surprise: QB Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams made perhaps the biggest reach of the first round, taking Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson with the 13th pick. For context, NBC Sports’ Connor Rogers ranked Simpson as the 42nd best prospect in the draft on his big board.
So why Simpson? Well, if anyone can get the most out of him, it would have to be Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay, a quarterback whisperer whose play-heavy offense could unlock Simpson. Remember, before he made the Super Bowl or won double-digit games with the Detroit Lions, Jared Goff was considered a potential bust until McVay became his head coach.
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Simpson will definitely be a project. He only started one season for the Crimson Tide, and he faded during his final collegiate season. In his last five games at Alabama, Simpson has failed to complete 20 passes in any of them. He also threw just six touchdowns in those five games, compared to three interceptions. In his last start for the Tide, Simpson threw for just 67 yards in a playoff loss to Indiana.
Los Angeles may have the luxury of time, though. Unlike most first-round quarterbacks, Simpson certainly isn’t expected to start anytime soon. Matthew Stafford will be the better QB at least next season, and there are much worse players that Simpson could learn from until he’s ready to take the reins.
Biggest slide: DE Rueben Bain Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Although it was not a foregone conclusion that Miami player Rueben Bain Jr. would make the top 10, many considered him worthy of such a selection. Rogers of NBC Sports placed him eighth on his big board, while Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network ranked him seventh. Instead, Bain Jr. fell to the 15th-ranked Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The elephant in the room was Bain Jr.’s 30 ⅞ inches. No passer with arms shorter than 31 inches has been taken in the first round since 2003, which could explain his slide.
What Bain Jr. lacked in measurables, however, he made up for in production.
He had 20.5 sacks in three years with the Hurricanes, including 9.5 in his final season. Bain Jr.’s ability to create pressure from the rim was a key factor in Miami’s run to the national championship game. If he can bring the same intensity to Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers may have landed one of the biggest steals of the first round.
Biggest bet: RB Jeremiah Love, Arizona Cardinals
Teams rarely spend top-five picks on running backs and when they do, they’re rarely successful — see Trent Richardson, a No. 3 pick in 2012 who lasted just three years, and Saquon Barkley, whom the Giants took second overall in 2018 and opted not to retain ahead of a breakout 2024 season. Even last year, Ashton Jeanty (sixth overall) struggled in his rookie season behind a patchwork offensive line in Las Vegas.
Arizona, however, was undeterred by taking Notre Dame’s Love third overall on Thursday, and ignoring the conventional wisdom that quality running backs can be selected much later, and at a much lower cost, in the draft. Many analysts consider Love the best pure player in the entire 2026 draft class, but running backs are largely dependent on their teammates for their success, and the Cardinals finished last season in a mess. They won’t have a dynamic quarterback to take pressure off the running game this season, meaning opponents may be able to stack the box to stop Love.
Biggest sign of what’s to come: WR Makai Lemon, Philadelphia Eagles
“AJ Brown is an eagle,” Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman said earlier this month. Yet the question after Thursday night’s first round is: for how much longer? With Brown the subject of trade talks, the Eagles traded for USC receiver Makai Lemon with the 20th pick to fuel an offense that scored on the seventh-lowest percentage of its drives last season.
The choice to draft a player at Brown’s position wasn’t Philadelphia taking a flyer. The Eagles wanted him enough to move ahead of Pittsburgh in the draft order, even though the Steelers were already speaking with Lemon on the phone, according to the NFL Network. This will only fuel speculation that Brown’s time in Philadelphia is coming to an end. At his best, Brown was a dynamic weapon who helped open the field for the rest of Philadelphia’s offense during its run to the 2024 Super Bowl. But Brown often seemed frustrated with his role in the team’s offense, which continued last fall as his production declined and the offense as a whole faltered.
Lemon’s selection is yet another signal that Philadelphia is planning for life after Brown. The Eagles also acquired three other receivers earlier this offseason.
