These Iran War Takes Aged Like Whole Milk
In the run-up to Operation Epic Fury in Iran and in the days after the conflict began, commentators on both sides who offered predictions about how things might play out often missed the mark.
President Donald Trump announced the start of military operations against Iran in an article published in Truth Social on February 28, confirming weeks of speculation that the United States was preparing to act. But the predictions of pundits on both sides of the political debate before and in the days following the announcement proved far more uncertain. (RELATED: Iran says ships from all countries can transit the Strait of Hormuz – except two)
Podcaster Dave Rubin, for example, predicted in a March 10 livestream that the Strait of Hormuz would not be closed to maritime traffic and that energy prices would not increase as a result. Similarly, Energy Secretary Chris Wright described the conflict with Iran as simply “a disruption on the path to a much better world” during a March 8 appearance on “Fox News Sunday.”
However, at least ten attacks were carried out on merchant ships in the strait between February 28 and March 8, maritime information service gCaptain reported, and traffic through the chokepoint came to a halt. Additionally, oil prices have risen steadily since Operation Epic Fury began, with WTI Futures crude closing at $98.32 on Friday, up more than $30 from the market close of $67.02 on Feb. 27, the day before the conflict with Iran began, according to Investing.com.
And fuel prices aren’t the only potential economic shock. The president of the American Farm Bureau told the Associated Press that farmers could find themselves in a “dire situation” because of the traffic stop across the strait.
The Hong Kong-flagged LNG carrier Lng Dubhe leaves the port of Bilbao after a call at the Bizkaia Bay Gas (BBG) regasification plant in the Spanish Basque town of Zierbena, March 9, 2026. (Photo by Ander Gillenea/AFP via Getty Images)
“We are told that many of our farmers who have not pre-ordered and paid for their fertilizer may not even get the fertilizer they will need during the season or for spring planting,” Zippy Duvall said.
According to the Fertilizer Institute, about half of the world’s production of two key agricultural fertilizer precursors, urea and sulfur, passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, which has been the target of Iranian missile and drone strikes, is also the main supplier of phosphates, another crucial fertilizer precursor, to the United States, the Fertilizer Institute reported.
Other proponents of military action, such as the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), argued that the Iranian regime was on the verge of collapse before military action began.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei greets supporters during a news conference after voting in the second round of parliamentary elections in Tehran, May 10, 2024. (Photo by Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
“It is now not only possible, but likely, that the regime will implode before it can extract the enriched uranium buried beneath American bombs and rebuild the centrifuges destroyed by Israeli bombs,” JINSA said in a February 4 article by Blaise Misztal and Johnathan Ruhe.
The Assembly of Iranian Experts nominated Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 8. The regime has launched numerous attacks on US bases, killing seven people and injuring dozens, but the younger Khamenei has not been seen in public since he was named supreme leader.
Other supporters of the operation quickly modified their expectations. During a March 17 appearance on “Hannity,” South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said there was “no reason to invade” Iran to “take” the country’s main oil distribution center, Kharg Island, and win the war.
Five days later, Graham left the door open for ground troops when asked about the capture of Kharg Island during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday” that drew backlash from left and right.
War skeptics have also made inaccurate predictions, including saying it would be difficult, if not impossible, for the United States and Israel to target Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“The US and Israel haven’t struck yet because they can’t locate Khamenei. Stay hidden. Only trust one person. Remove digital devices and medical devices,” commentator KimDotcom said on February 22. “If they can’t locate you, they can’t win.” (RELATED: “You’re Saying We Chose Fighting?”: NewsNation Host Confronts Democratic Rep on Motivation Behind Iran Strikes)
Smoke rises from a high-rise building following a drone attack in Kuwait City on March 8, 2026. (AFP Photo via Getty Images) / Kuwait OUT
Trump confirmed Ali Khamenei’s death in an article on Truth Social on the afternoon of February 28, hours after announcing Operation Epic Fury. Some U.S. leaders, including Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, have also questioned whether Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba is alive.
Others predicted that Israel would be isolated after a strike on Iran, with Southern Africa Eye noting on February 25 that Arab countries had initially refused permission for US bases to be used in the strikes.
After Iran began launching missile and drone strikes against targets in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, Arab countries have since supported the US-Israeli campaign. Even the radical Islamic terrorist group Hamas has condemned Iranian strikes against Arab countries.
“While the movement affirms the right of the Islamic Republic of Iran to respond to this aggression with all available means in accordance with international norms and laws, it calls on its Iranian brothers not to target neighboring countries,” the group said in a March 14 statement. (RELATED: “You’re Saying We Chose Fighting?”: NewsNation Host Confronts Democratic Rep on Motivation Behind Iran Strikes)
Other skeptics, such as former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent, have argued that Iran does not pose an “imminent threat” to the United States.
“It just didn’t exist,” Kent told Tucker Carlson on Tuesday.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani, who allegedly played a crucial role in supplying advanced IED components used by various insurgent groups, is believed to be responsible for the deaths of hundreds of U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. In January, Iran’s then-supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei posted multiple threats against Trump on social media, including describing the president, who survived two assassination attempts during the 2024 election, in a coffin.
Some Democrats in Congress have predicted that a broader war would break out as a result of the military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
“What are we going to get out of this? We’re not going to get regime change to a democracy. We’re not going to eliminate their nuclear program. We’re going to have a regional war breaking out,” Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy told “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan during a March 1 appearance.
In an article published Monday morning by Truth Social, Trump announced that he had ordered the War Department to delay plans to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure after saying Iran had sought talks.
“I am pleased to report that the United States of America and Iran have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” Trump said on Truth Social. “Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have directed the Department of War to postpone any military strike against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a period of five days, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”
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