Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market
The chances that the Trump family is going to launch a full-fledged prediction market product this year and just collapsed.
Last year, the Trump Media and Technology Group announced Truth Predict, a partnership with cryptocurrency company Crypto.com. The initial announcement presented Truth Predict as a “new product” that would allow Truth Social users to trade on sports, inflation, elections and more through an “integrated” prediction market service. “For too long, global elites have tightly controlled these markets. With Truth Predict, we are democratizing information and empowering ordinary Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight,” then-CEO Devin Nunes said in the October 2025 press release.
At the time, the company explained how Truth Social users could convert the platform’s existing “Truth gem” currency into Cronos cryptocurrency tokens and then “apply” them to Truth Predict transactions. Now, Trump Media is framing the project differently. In its latest public filing, the company indicated that the prediction market “remains in development” but that its offering would initially be limited to a “marketing and promotional collaboration” with OG.com, the US-based prediction market platform that Crypto.com launched in February 2026.
What exactly is a “marketing and promotion collaboration”? Hard to say, as neither Trump Media nor Crypto.com responded to questions about the implications of the deal. “We are encouraged by the progress we have made in developing Truth Predict in partnership with CDNA and look forward to bringing this exciting feature to Truth Social users,” Trump Media spokesperson Shannon Devine told WIRED via email. (“CDNA” refers to the U.S. regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse affiliated with Crypto.com, which is called Crypto.com | Derivatives North America. It really rolls off the tongue.)
Prediction markets are a rapidly growing and highly contested industry. Donald Trump, Jr. has ties to several leading markets; he is a paid advisor to Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket through his venture capital firm. President Donald Trump has made few public comments about predictive markets, although he told reporters last April that he didn’t “like it conceptually” and was “not happy with any of it.”
Yet the Trump administration has largely taken a friendly stance toward the industry through its top federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Biden-era CFTC banned Polymarket and even raided the home of its CEO Shayne Coplan; the Trump-era CFTC dropped the investigation. The Trump-era CFTC also insists it has exclusive jurisdiction over the industry and has opposed state intervention efforts, filing its own lawsuits against what CFTC Chairman Michael Selig describes as “overzealous state regulators.” Selig is engaged in a tense battle with state regulators over how the law should apply to these products; states like Nevada, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts are suing companies like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com, arguing that they must follow the state’s gambling rules.
One of the distinctive features of OG.com is that it was initially intended to allow participants to trade on margin, meaning people could borrow funds to make trades rather than providing all the financing themselves. Margin trading is an established practice in the world of financial derivatives, but relatively new in prediction markets; This inherently involves an additional degree of risk because it allows traders to use money they do not have. (It’s unclear if OG.com will roll this out. When WIRED contacted the company to ask if margin trading is live, it received an email from “the OG team” stating that “margin trading is not a product offered.”)
The result is that in the near future, a Truth Social user might be able to switch between reading Trump’s all-caps messages and borrowing large sums of money to build a World Cup parlay – but depending on how the “marketing and promotional collaboration” is set up, they may not actually be trading within the social network.
