Trump policies loom large over New Jersey’s unpredictable governor’s race | New Jersey

After last year’s elections, when Republicans made significant inroads in the state, New Jersey voters will cast their ballots in an unpredictable, off-year gubernatorial race that voters and experts say looks unlike any in recent memory.

Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor who represents New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, faces Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and former state lawmaker who is making his third bid for governor, this time with the support of Donald Trump.

With early voting underway, Tuesday’s vote — one of only two gubernatorial races this year — is drawing national attention as a potential preview of what’s to come in the 2026 midterms and an early assessment of Trump’s standing with voters.

“This is the first big opportunity for voters to go to the polls and express their feelings about the new presidential administration,” Kristoffer Shields, director of the Eagleton Center on American Governors, said in October.

The current Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, has served two terms and is term limited. Although the state tends to reliably support Democrats in federal elections, it has a history of switching between parties in its gubernatorial elections. Experts point out that no party has held this position for three consecutive terms since 1961.

Adding to the unpredictability of the race, Republicans have made gains in New Jersey in recent years. In 2021, Ciattarelli lost to Murphy by just three points. And in 2024, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won the state by just 5.9 points, compared to Joe Biden’s 16-point lead in 2020.

“The Republican Party feels reinvigorated in New Jersey, especially after two close races here in the state,” said Daniel Bowen, associate professor of public policy at the College of New Jersey.

Recent polls show a close race, with Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by single digits.

A Ciattarelli victory, Bowen said, would be “huge for the Republican Party” and would show that “the Maga type of politics can win in a place like New Jersey, a highly educated, wealthy, non-rural, urban state.”

In contrast, a Sherrill victory, Bowen said, could signal a rejection of Maga’s policies and point to a “broader response across the country to what the Trump administration has done in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections.”

IIn Elizabeth, New Jersey, on Wednesday, Sherrill met with about 100 people at the O’Donnell Dempsey Senior Center to discuss affordability, housing, health care, immigration and stopping Trump.

Among those in the room was Evelyn Velez, 71, who said she supported Sherrill because “there has to be someone who is going to stand up to the administration that is in Washington, D.C. right now.”

“We need someone who is going to fight for the working class, who is going to fight for health insurance, lower taxes, and I think she is the best candidate,” said Velez, a longtime New Jersey resident.

Another supporter, Kim Nesbitt Good, 69, said she was confident in Sherrill’s victory and supported her because she “wasn’t motivated by hate, she’s positive, and that’s what we need, someone positive, someone who cares about the country and the people of this country.”

While both candidates focused much of their campaigning on local issues like the cost of living and taxes, national politics and Trump loomed large.

A recent poll found that 52% of New Jersey voters said Trump was a “major factor” in their choice for governor. Sherrill has often sought to tie Ciattarelli to Trump and his policies, while Ciattarelli has worked to tie Sherrill to Governor Murphy, who according to a recent poll has a 34% approval rating and 50% disapproval rating in the state. For comparison, the same survey finds that Trump holds a 45% approval rating in the state.

The competition attracted millions of dollars in spending and support from national political figures. Ciattarelli campaigned with Trump allies, including Florida Rep. Byron Donalds and Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump himself also recently spoke for about 10 minutes during a virtual “tele-rally” for Ciattarelli.

On the Democratic side, former President Barack Obama, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg all campaigned for Sherrill.

In a recent interview, Ken Martin, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, told Politico that he wasn’t focused on whether Democrats were “overperforming or underperforming” in this race. “What matters to me is making sure we win,” he said. “Ultimately, we know that Republicans are very optimistic about their chances in New Jersey.

IIn Morris County, one of five New Jersey counties that flipped from blue to red in the 2024 election, about 20 people gathered at a coffee shop Wednesday morning to meet with county sheriff Jim Gannon, Ciattarelli’s choice for lieutenant governor.

Among them was Mike Lombardi, 35, who said his main concerns were “electric bills, crime, immigration.” He said he believed Ciattarelli and Gannon were the “ideal candidates to lead New Jersey.”

Lombardi, who said he was involved in voter outreach for Ciattarelli, said this year’s race was different because of “the energy around the Ciattarelli campaign.”

Another supporter, Nick Steenstra, 45, nodded in agreement and said Ciattarelli was the change New Jersey needed.

Still, Steenstra acknowledged the challenge ahead. “There are a lot more registered Democrats in the state,” he said, adding that to win, Ciattarelli needed to bring together not only Republicans but also unaffiliated voters in the state, who number more than 2 million.

One thing experts are watching closely in this race is voter turnout. In 2021, only 40% of eligible voters participated in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election.

“Which side is more motivated to vote will probably ultimately decide,” Shields said, noting that the race “may be defined by how energetic Democratic voters are.”

Whatever the outcome, analysts say the implications will likely extend beyond New Jersey.

On the Republican side, Shields said people are watching “what is the impact of the Trump administration, what is the impact of the national type of politics on the Republican candidate in a state that tends to vote blue at the federal level.”

And on the Democratic side, Shields said “there are a lot of questions about the Democratic Party nationally and about unifying the Democratic Party between the more progressive side and the more moderate side,” so they will be watching “how Sherrill tries to unify the Democratic Party, and is that successful?”

Brigid Harrison, a political science and law professor at Montclair State University, agreed and said a Ciattarelli victory would be a boost for Republicans heading into 2026.

But if Sherrill wins, Harrison said, “it’s a very different and nuanced narrative.”

“You see this ongoing tension within the Democratic Party between the more moderate Democrats who are saying, ‘Look, we need to reintegrate people who have migrated to the Republican Party,’ and the progressives who are saying, ‘We need to approach this with a more radical agenda,’” she said.

A Sherrill victory, Harrison said, could be seen as “a boost to moderates who will want to claim the role, saying that the way we move forward as a party is through policies that are halfway there.”