Tua Tagovailoa trade rumors: Four possible landing spots for Dolphins quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa has spent his entire career with the Miami Dolphins, but after six seasons, it appears the the team is ready to move forwardwhich means Tagovailoa is I’ll probably get dressed for someone else in 2026.
At this point, the only question is whether Tua will be released or traded. Both the scenarios would come with some complications for the Dolphins and that’s because Tua is owed $54 million in guaranteed money for the 2026 season. If the Dolphins cut Tua, they would be left with an NFL-record $99.2 million charge this year. However, they could bring that number down to $67.4 million if they designate it as a cut after June 1, a move that would allow them to spread the $99.2 million over two seasons (they would also take on a $31.8 million dead cap hit in 2027).
The best-case scenario for the Dolphins would be to find a potential trade partner. The problem is that it’s very unlikely that any team would be willing to take on Tua’s $54 million guaranteed salary for 2026. However, the Dolphins could still try to make a deal by agreeing to pay a portion of that salary. If Miami was willing to pay $24 million, then the acquiring team would only have to pay Tua $30 million in 2026, which is a much more manageable number.
So if Tua leaves Miami, where could he end up? Let’s take a look at four possible landing spots.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are currently in a nightmare situation at the quarterback position. They appeared to have their quarterback of the future in 2024 in Sam Darnold, who led them to a 14-3 record. The Vikings could have kept him last year, but instead of signing Darnold to a long-term deal (or even just franchise tag him), they decided to roll the dice by going all-in on JJ McCarthy and that gamble totally backfired. In his first full year as a starter, McCarthy seemed much closer to a failure than someone who will eventually become the team’s future franchise quarterback.
Say what you want about Tua, but he’s definitely a much more polished quarterback than McCarthy. Although he has struggled to stay healthy, Tua has been productive when he is on the field and he has been especially good when he has had the right weapons around him and the Vikings have plenty of offensive weapons to work with with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson. Tua may have to compete with McCarthy for the job, but that’s probably a competition he’d feel pretty confident in.
And let’s not forget that Tua’s former offensive coordinator, Frank Smith, is now in Minnesota. Smith worked with Tua for four seasons in Miami and is now the Vikings assistant head coach after being hired this year, so there would be some familiarity there.
The biggest question mark here is whether Tua would want to join a team that includes Brian Flores. The Vikings defensive coordinator was Tua’s head coach in Miami for two seasons (2020-21) and the two certainly didn’t get along. Tua ripped Flores’ coaching style in 2024 and it is not clear whether the both sides mended fences. If so, then Minnesota seems like an attractive spot for the former fifth overall pick.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray has almost certainly played his last game in Arizona, meaning the Cardinals will likely be in the market for a quarterback this offseason. Jacoby Brissett, who started 12 games last season, is under contract through 2026, so the Cards have a safety net, but it would make much more sense for them to bring in someone.
New Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur is coming off three seasons as the Rams’ offensive coordinator, where he was able to work with one of the best pocket passers in the NFL, Matthew Stafford. That’s not Murray’s style of play, but it’s certainly what Tua prefers, which is why he might be able to fit in with Arizona’s new offense.
The Cardinals have some solid weapons, including Trey McBride, who is one of the best tight ends in the NFL. They also have an impressive receiving duo in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. Tua was at his best in Miami when Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were both on the field, so the Cardinals know what kind of production he is capable of when he has weapons around him.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts might be the biggest wild card when it comes to the quarterback position this year and that’s because it’s unclear if Daniel Jones will be ready to play in Week 1. Jones had a good season in his first year with Indianapolis, but it ended painfully in December. when he tore his Achilles tendon. It’s one of the most brutal injuries in sports and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he had to miss the first few weeks of the 2026 season. In fact, if you look at the recovery timeline for quarterbacks, it would be a miracle if Jones played in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins both tore their Achilles in 2023 and they ended up playing in Week 1 of the following season, but both of those injuries occurred in start of the season (Cousins’ injury occurred in Week 8 while Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1. Jones suffered his injury in Week 1.14).
Not only is Jones’ health up in the air, but he’s also set to become a free agent, so the Colts need to figure out what they want to do with him, and that’s where Tua would come in. If the Colts decide to re-sign Jones, Tua could sign a one-year deal — if the Dolphins release him — and be the QB until Jones is ready to play. A trade could also make sense if the Dolphins are willing to eat a good chunk of Tua’s $54 million salary for 2026. Tua has no guaranteed money left after the 2026 season, so he could fill in for Jones for a few weeks, finish the 2026 season in Indy, and then the Colts could release or trade him in the 2027 offseason (Tua will have $3 million of his salary 2027 guaranteed on March 13, so the Colts would have to deal with that if they acquired him in a trade from Miami).
One thing that works in Tua’s favor is that the Colts have a setup that he could thrive in: they have a solid offensive line, they have one of the best running backs in the NFL (Jonathan Taylor), they have a solid receiving group led by Michael Pittman and they have a solid young tight end in Tyler Warren. Tua could put up big numbers at Indy.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons currently have two quarterbacks in Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr., but that won’t be the case for much longer. The team is should release Cousins before free agency begins, which will leave Penix at the top of the depth chart. Penix, however, has serious question marks: it I just tore his ACL for the third time in his football career and he hasn’t proven that he can still play good football.
Although the Falcons I expect him to be ready for week 1he’s playing for a new coach and a new front office that didn’t draft him, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if they brought him competition. Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski has shown he can win games even if he has to go through quarterbacks. He led the Browns to the playoffs during a 2023 season in which Cleveland started five different players at quarterback. Stefanski is a smart offensive mind and if he thinks Tua has more upside than Penix, then he would almost certainly be interested in bringing him to Atlanta.
Bringing in a left-handed QB to compete with a left-handed QB would be a plus for the Falcons because it means Atlanta wouldn’t have to make huge changes from an offensive standpoint.
The man who calls the shots in Atlanta’s front office, Matt Ryan, was noncommittal when asked if Penix would be the starting QB in 2026. Ryan told CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones that Penix’s role would be decided by new head coach Kevin Stefanski.
“Kevin’s responsibility is to be the head coach of the football team and he’s going to let you know who our starters are and who aren’t. It’s not my place to go,” Ryan said during Super Bowl week.
The QB job will therefore fall to Stefanski, which certainly leaves the door open for Atlanta to recruit a new quarterback.
Why several QB-needy teams weren’t on this list
One thing you may or may not have noticed about this list is that every team on it plays inside. If Tua has proven one thing over his career, it’s that he struggles when the weather gets cold, so it doesn’t make much sense for him to play in a cold weather city, which is why we don’t have the Jets, Steelers, or Browns listed here.
Tua’s Dolphins’ last career start came in a December loss to the Steelers where the kickoff temperature was 17 degrees. This dropped Tua’s career record to 0-6 when the temperature is below 40. If I’m a team in a cold weather city, I don’t want Tua, and if I’m Tua, I don’t want to play in a cold weather city. For Tua, playing indoors will guarantee him perfect weather for at least eight games a year. Tua is 8-4 in his career when playing indoors (dome or retractable roof), with his last game coming in Week 8 against the Falcons, a day that saw him throw four touchdown passes in a 34-10 victory.
