U.S. wheat crops wither, herds thin as spring drought deepens
Farmers across the Great Plains are facing an intense drought that threatens winter wheat crops and pushes livestock producers to buy expensive feed, prompting some to abandon plans to expand their herds.
The drought is expected to persist into spring after weeks of low rainfall and a late winter heatwave that fueled significant pasture fires across the country’s breadbasket. Drought now covers nearly 90% of Nebraska and Oklahoma, with more than half of Nebraska in “extreme” drought. Such conditions have historically pushed cattle ranchers to sell their animals and forced farmers to drill new irrigation wells when rivers dry up.
The coming weeks will be crucial for Plains producers as winter wheat begins to mature ahead of the summer harvest and before other crops are planted. Without enough moisture from rainfall or irrigation, wheat shoots struggle to fill out and produce grain. Some farmers will allow livestock to graze in fields instead of attempting to harvest grain.
“We have a lot of modern precedent for these very harsh conditions heading into the spring growing season, but this is certainly among the worst we’ve seen,” said Brad Rippey, a meteorologist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Although periodic rains have fallen on parts of the Plains this spring, the region as a whole remains unusually dry after a La Niña winter, marked by light snowfall and record warm temperatures, stripping the soil of moisture.
The impact is already being felt. Only 30% of the US winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent Sunday in USDA data, the lowest rating since 2023. About half of the crop in Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas — the region’s largest producers — is rated as poor to very poor, Rippey said, indicating a high risk of yield losses.
Drought is also met with rising input costs. Fertilizer prices have soared following attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, prompting some farmers to reduce their applications. U.S. Rep. Frank Lucas, Republican of Oklahoma, said he chose not to buy nitrogen fertilizer for his wheat fields in the western part of the state.
“I didn’t have enough humidity – it wouldn’t have done anything,” Lucas said. “Second, I’m not even sure of the cost.”
Farmers were under economic pressure even before the drought threatened their yields. However, the abundance of grain reserves elsewhere in the world could limit any rise in prices. In the Plains, “moisture is desperately needed,” Rippey said, adding that precipitation in the coming weeks will likely determine whether the winter wheat crop will be “make or break for 2026.” The drought, while unlikely to impact meat prices, will also provide little relief from record beef costs if it stalls the rebuilding of the U.S. cattle herd.
Help might not come soon enough. Even though the drying La Niña has ended, heavy rains may not return to the central United States until its warmer counterpart, El Niño, develops later this summer. By then, the winter wheat harvest and planting period could close.
By the end of July, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecasts an extension of drought in eastern Colorado and western Kansas, with below-average precipitation in some areas and unseasonably warm temperatures. That heat can “induce a greater atmospheric demand” for moisture, said Eric Hunt, an agricultural meteorologist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “Evapotranspiration is higher, which means you could lose more water from the soil.”
The dry terrain contributed to a wave of destructive wildfires across the Southern Plains, burning an estimated 1 million acres of hayfields and pastures by the end of March. These losses further dim prospects for rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd, which has already fallen to its lowest level in 75 years as farmers choose to sell their animals for slaughter instead of keeping them for breeding.
At the start of the year, the number of heifers (young female cows that have not yet given birth) sold at auction in the meat supply chain began to decline, said Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting. This data point may signal future breeding projects, Kalo added, but as drought conditions have worsened in recent weeks, auction volumes have crept back toward levels seen over the past two years.
“Drought just sets things back,” said Ben Smith, field operations manager at Farm Rescue, a nonprofit. “That’s when men start to have to make difficult decisions about liquidating part of their herd if they can’t afford to buy food or can’t find alternative foods.”
Farm Rescue delivered hay to replace supplies lost in the fires in Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska, Smith said. Two major professional associations, Nebraska Cattlemen and Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association, have also opened mutual aid funds to support affected ranchers.
“Rebuilding, whether it’s corrals or fences, takes time and money,” said Nebraska Cattlemen President Craig Uden, noting that thousands of miles of pasture fences have been destroyed in the fires. Replacement costs typically exceed $10,000 per mile, reducing ranchers’ income even if they don’t show up in consumer prices. “What people really need are seeds, hay, tillers and equipment to help move livestock, as many of them will need to find new accommodation for the summer. »
