UFC 321 fight card predictions: Expert picks for Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

There’s nothing like a heavyweight title fight, and that’s what UFC fans will be treated to Saturday when Tom Aspinall defends his title for the first time against former two-time title challenger Ciryl Gane. UFC 321 main event. Additionally, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba will fight for the vacant women’s strawweight championship in the co-main event of the card.

Aspinall has been spectacular since entering the UFC, easily taking on opponents en route to winning the interim heavyweight championship. Aspinall never had the chance to unify the interim title with the full title before former champion Jon Jones retired and vacated the belt, resulting in Aspinall being elevated to undisputed champion.

Gane failed to win the title in two previous bids, dropping a decision to Francis Ngannou and losing to Jones via first-round submission. He now has what is likely his final opportunity to become UFC champion.

In addition to the two title fights, Umar Nurmagomedov is looking to earn a second shot at Merab Dvalishvili and the bantamweight championship when he faces Mario Bautista. Additionally, a future heavyweight title contender could be established when Jailton Almeida takes on Alexander Volkov.

UFC 321 predictions, odds, best bets: Prop picks for title fights, Umar Nurmagomedov among top picks

Brent Brookhouse

With so much happening Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff’s predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities you can consider before heading to the sportsbooks.

UFC 321 fight card, odds

Odds via DraftKings Sports Betting

• Tom Aspinall (c) -345 vs. Ciryl Gane +275, heavyweight championship
• Mackenzie Dern -155 vs. Virna Jandiroba +130, vacant women’s strawweight championship
• Umar Nurmagomedov -625 vs. Mario Bautista +455, bantamweight
• Jailton Almeida -225 vs. Alexander Volkov +185, heavyweight
• Azamat Murzakanov -115 vs. Aleksandar Rakic ​​-105, light heavyweight
• Nasrat Haqparast -112 vs. Quillan Salkilld -108, middleweight
• Ikram Aliskerov -245 vs. Junyong Park +200, middleweight
• Ludovit Klein -135 vs. Mateusz Rebecki +114, lightweight
• Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady -118 vs. Matheus Camilo -102, lightweight
• Valter Walker -360 vs. Louie Sutherland +285, heavyweight
• Jose Delgado -148 vs. Nathaniel Wood +124, bantamweight
• Hamdy Abdelwahab -425 vs. Chris Barnett +330, heavyweight
• Azat Maksum -375 vs. Mitch Raposo +295, flyweight
• Jaqueline Amorim -410 vs. Mizuki Inoue +320, women’s strawweight

UFC 321 Predictions and Picks

With such a massive main event on tap, the CBS Sports team has advanced predictions and picks for the main card of Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Wise.

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Predictions

Campbell: Despite the pressure on him to live up to the hype that ultimately forced Jon Jones to avoid him, Aspinall couldn’t have asked for a better style match than the one he has against Gane. The frustrating timeline Aspinall was forced to navigate during Jones’ indecision only gave him more time to add to his game. And Gane, who is largely devoid of a threatening ground game, possesses nothing like the kind of one-punch power Aspinall has to end the fight at any given moment. Gane also has a habit of folding in big moments and enters his third title shot since 2022 on anything but a hot streak. Aspinall could be pushed beyond the second round for the first time as a professional due to Gane’s move, but the inevitability of an Aspinall knockout is still in play once he finds his timing.

Brookhouse: Gane is a good heavyweight, but not a great one. Gane also isn’t expected to be able to fight for the UFC heavyweight title for a third time, considering he received a win over Volkov in his last fight. There is a simple reality to this fight, and that is that Aspinall has the most power on the feet and the best grappling and submissions. Gane struggled to defend Francis Ngannou’s takedowns, and Jon Jones ran through him like it was nothing. Gane has good technical striking, but without enormous one-shot power, it’s hard to see how he stops Aspinall from doing what he wants, when he wants to do it.

Mahjouri: I have a higher opinion of Gane than most people, but that’s not enough for me to be on his side. Aspinall is a cutting-edge modern heavyweight: athletic, powerful, fast and skilled. Gane’s takedown defense is his most glaring problem. Ngannou, little known for his wrestling, took him down with a torn MCL. Afterwards, Jones quickly submitted him and Alexander Volkov scored 75% of his takedown attempts against Gane. “Bon Gamin” may be the most visually spectacular heavyweight striker, but he’s not really a one-shot knockout artist. Aspinall has a more complete game and higher finishing potential. I wouldn’t be surprised if the champ took him down early. Aspinall by submission.

Predictions Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba

Campbell: In the four years since they first met, Jandiroba has gone 6-1 with victories over top contenders one after another. Dern, meanwhile, is just 5-4, with as many flat performances as she has decisive victories. Dern even publicly stated that she would not have felt ready to face Zhang Weili for the belt if the former champion had not vacated her title. For all his flashy submission skills and remarkable warrior spirit, Dern remains a forward-thinking, emotional striker whose technique often breaks down as a fight becomes chaotic. This is where Jandiroba, who might actually be the better wrestler of the two, can fill in the gaps with her well-rounded and highly technical style. In elite MMA, momentum matters, and Jandiroba’s five-fight win streak has made her a formidable threat for the belt.

Brookhouse: I don’t feel too confident in either woman’s chances heading into the fight. Dern sometimes falls in love with her striking, which isn’t her strong point, but she’s probably better than Jandiroba on the feet. On the ground, things are somewhat of a wash, with Dern being the better pure jiu-jitsu player, but Jandiroba may be a little better at applying jiu-jitsu to MMA. Throw out the 2020 fight because both fighters have moved on since then. I’m rolling with Jandiroba based on Dern’s history of putting up poor performances against various opponents, but I’m not doing it with confidence.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Predictions

Campbell: There may be only one bantamweight in the world capable of ending Merab Dvalishvili’s reign. But before Nurmagomedov can get a second chance after falling short in January (despite breaking his left hand early in the fight), he’ll have to shake off a red-hot Mario Bautista. From a skill versus skill standpoint, this fight is Nurmagomedov’s to lose, which is why he’s more than a 6-to-1 betting favorite despite Bautista’s eight-fight winning streak. Nurmagomedov said before the fight that he would not take too many risks to ensure victory and would focus on wrestling and submitting Bautista. Now fully healthy with something to prove, expect Nurmagomedov to bounce back in a big way.

Brookhouse: The odds are out of reach for this fight. Bautista is a very good fighter, but in a way that is often overlooked. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bautista manages to pull out a win on Saturday. I wouldn’t bet on that happening though. Nurmagomedov is going to get his takedowns because he’s going to throw a ton of them at Bautista. On the ground, Nurmagomedov should be able to exert enough control to find a submission or simply settle for the scorecards. This fight is Nurmagomedov’s to lose, but I don’t think it will be easy and there could be some bad moments for him along the way.

Mahjouri: Nurmagomedov didn’t lose much stock in his bantamweight title bid. With some adjustments, many believe he is still best placed to beat Merab Dvalishvili. Umar, cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, certainly gave Dvalishvili his toughest title fight. This is why he should be favored against Bautista. Both fighters are well-rounded athletes who thrive on scorecards and submissions. But Nurmagomedov does almost everything better. Striking accuracy and defense, as well as takedown offense and defense, are stats in which Nurmagomedov edges out Bautista. It will probably last 15 minutes, but Nurmagomedov will have his hand raised.

Who will win UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get in-depth picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who has made over $1,500 on his UFC main card picks, and find out.