UFC Fight Night predictions — Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez: Card, picks, odds

A middleweight title shot could be on the line for the winner of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event in Houston. Former UFC champion Sean Strickland looks to bounce back against red-hot contender Anthony Hernandez.

Strickland (29-7) has a new path to the middleweight title after Khamzat Chiamev became champion. Strickland was unlikely to get a third chance at Dricus du Plessis after two failed attempts. But Chimaev vs. Strickland is a new match. Between Strickland’s No. 3 middleweight ranking and his name value, it’s possible he could sneak past the title’s most deserving challenger, Nassourdine Imavov. Strickland needs to beat Hernandez before these conversations can begin. Punters think it’s a tall order; Strickland disagrees.

“He rode guys I could write a clinic on,” Strickland said Brian Campbell of CBS Sports before the fight. “So, no, he’s not [on my level]”.

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Hernandez (15-2, 1 NC) is ready for his breakout moment after coming a long way through the division. “Fluffy” has won eight straight fights with six finishes. He’s days away from potentially having the third-longest middleweight winning streak in UFC history. Beating Strickland would be the greatest achievement of his careerand ties him with Imavov as the most deserving challenger for the middleweight title. In fact, “Fluffy” would arguably have a better case than Imavov, boasting a longer winning streak and as many wins against former UFC champions.

“I think if you beat a former champion, it really makes a statement because everyone is really good here,” Hernandez said. “Someone who’s done this shit before, you go out there and take them out? You’re sitting in a really good place.”

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UFC Fight Night also features two perennial contenders looking to protect their place in the hierarchy. Geoff Neal (No. 12) takes on the tenacious Uros Medic, and Dan Ige (No. 14) attempts to end Melquizael Costa’s five-fight winning streak. Both veterans approach fight night with a renewed sense of strength after overcoming personal health issues. For Neal, a five-year battle with drug addiction. For Ige, eye injuries before the Patricio Pitbull fight.

“I didn’t have the energy for anything. I didn’t prepare well. The weight cuts were terrible,” Neal told CBS Sports this week. “There was a time, before all this happened, I would run for an hour at a seven-mile pace. I would run eight point six miles in an hour. I’m trying to get back to my old self.”

“I had trauma to my eyes,” Ige said. “My mindset going into this fight was, ‘I don’t know if I’ll ever fight again.’ I didn’t know what I was dealing with. I didn’t want to get out of the fight. I knew if I went to a doctor he would tell me not to fight. It’s my ego and my pride. I’ve been fighting this for a long time. I probably should have fixed it, but I didn’t… It’s something I’ve always struggled with, but I’m getting better at it. I have a better relationship with myself and my thoughts. Things are different at night and during the day. »

Let’s take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings before moving on to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night Viewing Information

Date: February 21 | Start time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Toyota Center – Houston
Flow: Paramount+ (subscribe now for as little as $8.99 per month)

Prediction

Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez: I’m surprised how different the probabilities are. Hernandez takes a significant step forward in competition against arguably the most frustrating defensive fighter in the division. Strickland has elite experience and is uniquely equipped to limit his opponent’s offense. Hernandez also has some serious gaps in his defensive striking that Strickland can exploit. That being said, I side with the rising tide. Hernandez is a threat when he has grappling control and half guard on the ground. Strickland did a fantastic job of stuffing du Plessis’ takedowns and getting off the mat quickly. “Fluffy” lacks the physicality of DDP, but makes up for that with tenacious chain wrestling and much better top control. Hernandez will have a hard time defeating Strickland. When he does, he will make the most of it. Enough to win a close decision against a former champion who can certainly play the role of spoiler. Pick: Hernandez via split decision

Who wins Strickland vs. Hernandezand what best UFC bet over +500 should you be anywhere? Visit SportsLine now for detailed picks and analysis of the advanced model that has shown a 6.1% ROI across more than 500 fights from 2023-2025, and find out.