Forecasters say 2025 ‘more likely than not’ to be UK’s hottest year on record | UK weather

Forecasters say 2025 is “more likely than not” to break the record for the UK’s hottest year since records began, after a summer of heatwaves and drought followed by a mild autumn.

According to the Met Office, the official forecaster, the average temperature for 2025 is well ahead of the previous highest year, set for 2022. However, an expected cold spell from Christmas until the New Year makes it too close to be definitive.

It will almost certainly be one of the hottest years on record in the UK, joining 2022 and 2023 in the top three.

“This should come as no surprise,” said Mike Kendon, senior scientist in the Met Office’s climate information team. Over the past four decades, the UK’s annual temperature has increased by around 1°C.

“We will have to wait until the end of the year before confirming final figures for 2025, but at this stage it seems more likely than not that 2025 will be confirmed as the UK’s hottest year on record.

“However, it won’t be long before this record will be broken again. Since the start of the 21st century, a new UK annual average temperature record has been set no less than six times – in 2002, 2003, 2006, 2014, 2022 and now 2025. [if confirmed] – each disk is progressively hotter than the previous one.

If confirmed, 2025 would be only the second year in the observational record in which the UK’s annual average temperature exceeds 10°C.

It would also mean that four of the last five years are among the five warmest years since 1884, with the first ten years all occurring in the last two decades.

Earlier this year, the Met Office said the UK had experienced its hottest summer on record, after four heatwaves pushed the average temperature in June, July and August to 16.1C. The five hottest summers on record have occurred since 2000.

“When it comes to our climate, we are living in extraordinary times,” Kendon said. “The changes we observe are unprecedented in observational records dating back to the 19th century. »