75% of Arab Israelis support Arab party joining government coalition post-war, survey reveals

The survey, conducted by Tel Aviv University, examined the attitudes of Israel’s Arab population after the end of the Gaza war.

More than 75 percent of Israel’s Arab citizens support an Arab party joining the governing coalition after the war ends, a new study reveals.

The study investigated the attitudes of Israel’s Arab population following the conclusion of the war in Gaza after October 7 and was conducted by the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.

Data presented by the university shows a sharp increase in support compared to May 2023, when only 63% of Arab citizens favored joining the coalition.

According to the study, if the Knesset elections were held today, the turnout rate of Arab communities would rise to approximately 52.4%, similar to the 53.2% turnout rate in the 25th Knesset elections in November 2022. In such a scenario, the Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would win 5.3 and 3.9 seats, respectively, exceeding the electoral threshold, while Balad would once again fail with 2.6 seats.

If the Joint List were reinstated, uniting the four Arab parties as in previous election cycles, turnout would increase significantly to 61.8%, and the Joint List would be expected to win 15.5 seats. Overall, 77.4% of respondents said they support an Arab party participating in the next government – ​​almost half favor joining a formed coalition, and 31.8% specifically support participating in a center-left government. The Dayan Center noted that these results are consistent with previous surveys conducted during the war.

The survey also explored the issues most important to Arab citizens. A clear majority (74%) identified fighting violence and crime as the community’s top priority, far outweighing other concerns. Smaller but notable shares highlighted resolving the Palestinian issue (7.6%) and improving planning and construction policies in Arab cities (7%).

The study further revealed major components of personal identity among Arab citizens, with Arab identity (35.9%) and Israeli citizenship (31.7%) emerging as the strongest. Religious affiliation (17.3%) and Palestinian identity (14.7%) were also important factors.

The rise of violence in Arab society is a major concern

Despite relatively stable political engagement, the survey revealed deep concerns about personal security: 76.6% of Arab citizens reported feeling a low sense of personal security. The main cause of this negative mood was the rise in violence within Arab communities (51.9%), followed by fears of another regional war (14.2%), the situation in Gaza (11.3%) and economic difficulties (10%). Interestingly, 73.4% of respondents said their economic situation was relatively good – the highest figure recorded in surveys conducted during the war.

Relations between Arab and Jewish citizens were also viewed with pessimism. Nearly three-quarters of participants (74.6%) said relations had deteriorated over the past two years due to the war, and almost half said the deterioration was significant. More than a third (37.5%) said their sense of belonging to the state had weakened since the start of the war, although a slight majority (50.8%) felt the conflict had not changed their feelings toward the state.

Politically, 64.6 percent of Arab citizens expressed confidence in the possibility of Arab-Jewish political cooperation, although only 44.7 percent believe such cooperation is supported by the Jewish public. Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 47.3 percent believe the most realistic solution is the creation of two states based on the 1967 borders. Fourteen percent favored a single binational state, 8.5 percent supported a regional solution with international mediation, and 21 percent thought no political solution was currently realistic.

Dr. Arik Rudnitzky, director of the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Center, said the results highlight the resilience and political maturity of Arab society.

“The last two years have not been easy for Arab citizens, as the ongoing war in Gaza and the suffering of the Palestinian population have deeply concerned them,” Dr. Rudnitzky said. “Yet support for an Arab party joining the coalition, as well as belief in an Arab-Jewish political partnership, even in the midst of a protracted war, shows that Arab public opinion demonstrates remarkable political maturity, defends law and order and democratic values, and now seeks to contribute to the rehabilitation of Israeli society as a whole after the war. »

He added that despite the most serious confrontation in the history of the conflict, Arab citizens remain focused on daily civil issues; “The Palestinian issue is always in the background, but for the vast majority of the Arab public it does not dictate their political priorities. »