US soldier arrested for allegedly making over $400,000 on Polymarket with classified Maduro information
US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested and charged for betting on the Polymarket prediction market using classified information he had access to regarding the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant, directly involved in the planning and execution of the operation, reportedly made $409,881 in profits.
According to the Justice Department, Van Dyke created a Polymarket account around December 26, 2025, and made 13 Maduro-related bets from December 27 to January 2. He took the “Yes” position on several Polymarket bets, including “US forces in Venezuela…by January 31, 2026”, “Maduro eliminated by…January 31, 2026”, “Will the United States invade Venezuela by January 31” and “Trump invokes war powers against Venezuela by…January 31.” » The US military captured Maduro and his wife on January 3.
Van Dyke allegedly wagered a total of $33,034 and won more than ten times that amount from his winnings. He withdrew his money from Polymarket the day Maduro was captured, then sent it to a foreign crypto vault before depositing it into a new online brokerage account.
Shortly after Maduro’s capture, reports emerged that an anonymous player had won nearly half a million dollars before it was announced, sparking fears that someone had taken advantage of insider military knowledge. The Justice Department says Van Dyke tried to cover his tracks. After reports of possible insider betting emerged, he allegedly asked Polymarket to delete his account, falsely claiming he had lost access to the email he was using. He also changed the email address linked to his crypto account to one not associated with his name.
Van Dyke was charged with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each carrying a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison. He was also charged with one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, as well as one count of illegal monetary transaction, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years.
Prediction markets are facing problems with insider trading, and this is not the first incident. Recently, Kalshi took action against three political candidates, accusing them of insider trading related to their campaigns. Matt Klein of Minnesota and Ezekiel Enriquez of Texas face fines of less than $1,000 and suspensions of up to five years. Meanwhile, Mark Moran, of Virginia, faces disciplinary action, a five-year suspension and a fine of more than $6,000.
