What’s next for Magic? Orlando still unsure if Banchero-Wagner pairing works
It was almost that simple. The Orlando Magic were expected to compete for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Their regular season ended with a loss to the Boston B-Team which dropped them to eighth place. When they lost their first game of the Play-In Tournament to the Philadelphia 76ers, they were treated as a stepping stone for Charlotte to the playoffs. Jamahl Mosley was a dead coach who walked. The roster was disappointing for 83 games in an 82-game season. The marching orders here were clear: revive the offense, fix the defense and by all means fix the delicate partnership between two flawed young stars.
And then, seemingly out of nowhere, the team Orlando had waited six months for finally arrived. They decimated Charlotte to clinch the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot, punched the 60-win Pistons in the mouth in a stunning road game in Game 1, won Games 3 and 4 at home and put the No. 1 seed on the ropes.
It all came together. After falling out of the top five defensively for the first time since 2023, the Magic were suddenly impenetrable. An up-and-down season for Paolo Banchero culminated with another strong playoff run. Years of roster data suggesting the Magic were better offensively when Banchero and Franz Wagner played separately were reversed in a Detroit series in which the Magic posted a solid 115.6 offensive rating when they shared the court. It was everything the Magic hoped this team could be. And then it’s gone.
Wagner suffered a calf strain. Orlando’s best defender, Cade Cunningham, was suddenly gone, and sure enough, Detroit’s superstar guard dropped 45 points in Game 5. The Magic got off to a strong start in Game 6, but fell apart without Wagner creating any offense. They only scored 19 points in the second half and lost their final home game. In Game 7 on Sunday, the Magic were ready to become a pumpkin again. Their season ended much the same way it began and remained until mid-April: in abject disappointment. This leaves the Magic with an unanswered question: Which version of their team was the real one? The version that disappointed for six months? Or the one who played the five most important matches of the season?
Why the Magic has less time than it seems
Most younger teams would probably be happy to go back and let next season answer the question for them. The Magic can’t really do that. By acquiring Desmond Bane, the Magic have acquired a monster payroll for the very near future. Bane and Wagner are on max rookie deals. Jalen Suggs isn’t far behind. And three more players are about to get significantly more expensive:
- Banchero’s max rookie extension, which will pay him $239 million over five years, goes into effect. He will make around $41 million next season.
- Wendell Carter Jr. is set to begin a three-year, $58.6 million extension. Before the Detroit series, this deal seemed uncertain. He was coming off his second straight poor 3-point shooting season, and his rim protection numbers, never stellar, were also down. Then he completely dominated All-NBA center Jalen Duren for seven games. So is this a good contract?
- Anthony Black is eligible for his own rookie extension. Although he comes off the bench for the Magic, he would likely require starting money to be able to re-sign. The floor here is probably the four-year, $90 million contract that Shaedon Sharpe got last offseason. Sharpe is the leading scorer, but Portland barely trusted him in its first-round series against San Antonio. Black surpasses him in impact metrics and played a bigger role against Detroit. With equally questionable shooters Christian Braun and Dyson Daniels making $25 million per year, Black would be justified in demanding to at least top $20 million per year.
The Magic are only expected to have around $4 million under the second apron next season with just 12 players on the roster. They have ways to generate more space, including waiving partially guaranteed Jonathan Isaac, but once a hypothetical black extension comes into play for the 2026-27 season, there’s no getting around the second apron. If the Magic keep that same expensive core of six players with any semblance of depth, that’s where they’re headed. This seems untenable since, you know, this group has yet to win a playoff series.
Maybe you roll the dice. Deny Black an extension while planning to use restricted free agency to take advantage of a more favorable outcome a year from now, and use the extra time you’ve given yourself to further evaluate the core. But for all that extra time you’re taking, the rest of the league is taking it too. If next season plays out like this regular season, it will be that much harder to get fair value if you decide you need to return a key piece. Go ask Ja Morant and Trae Young how quickly an expensive player can lose trade value in the NBA apron.
Right now, Banchero is a 23-year-old No. 1 overall pick with an iffy shot but a history of progressing in the playoffs. Would potential trade partners lose confidence in the jumper if he doesn’t show up next season? Wagner missed 22 games last season and more than half of this season. How concerned would the rest of the league be about his durability? Or, for that matter, Suggs’? Neither Wagner nor Suggs are reliable shooters either.
Whatever these players are worth now, they probably won’t be worth a year from now. If it turns out the Magic are as good as they had hoped all along, stay healthy and compete next season? Great, you have your core. It’s just as possible that the Pistons – given their complete lack of shooting – were a particularly beneficial matchup for the Magic, that their shooting never happened and their most important players simply couldn’t stay on the court. At this point, well, you also have your core… just more in the sense of being stuck with it.
So, what’s on the table for the Magic this offseason?
The simplest move a team can make is always a coaching change. They’re one-sided and uncapped, and a 3-1 collapse is a reasonable hedge if the Magic were considering firing Mosley anyway. He never coached the Magic into an above-average offense, and Banchero made some particularly critical public comments.
The Magic tried to hire Billy Donovan as early as 2007. He took the job, changed his mind and returned to college. He’s now on the open market, looking for a team ready to win, and he’s proven remarkably adaptable with less talent in his previous stops. Given his ties to the area, he would seem to be the obvious favorite to coach the team next season if Mosley is indeed fired.
Small adjustments are available on the roster if the Magic wish to pursue them. They signed Tyus Jones in free agency last year, apparently knowing they would need a traditional point guard to make their offense functional. It didn’t work, but the idea would be worth revisiting with another player. We don’t know what Chicago’s long-term plans are since we don’t yet know who will lead the team, but Tyus’ younger brother Tre could be worth a low-cost move if he’s available. The Suns will likely do everything in their power to re-sign Collin Gillespie, but he would fit the bill if he is available in free agency.
If they don’t have a point guard, more shots are the bare minimum. The NBA is friendlier than it’s ever been to big ball handlers. The Magic bet its future on this idea. But Banchero and Wagner can’t be expected to run an offense with the 24th-highest 3-point attempt rate and 27th-highest 3-point attempt percentage in the NBA. They need space to operate and don’t have it.
But given the severity of the looming financial crisis, larger fluctuations should at least be considered. One solution to an expensive roster is consolidation: trade several expensive players for one. Orlando has been a popular Giannis Antetokounmpo sleeper for months. Orlando mastermind Jeff Weltman and John Hammond were in Milwaukee when the Bucks drafted him, and if the Magic really wanted to break up the Banchero-Wagner duo, Milwaukee would likely be interested in one or the other. Still, with so few shots on the roster, Orlando would need more changes to accommodate him.
There is also the idea of recovering the choices given up for Bane by distributing Banchero or Wagner now. Given their ages, there would likely be interested suitors. The goal here would be less about getting picks and more about getting liquidity. Give the offense to whoever you guard, figure out what’s needed around that player, then spend the picks you get to find him later. Banchero’s health and stature probably make him easier to trade, and the numbers suggest Orlando is better off with Wagner anyway. Few front offices have the courage to trade their top pick this early in his career, but it’s a decision the Magic may have to face sooner or later anyway.
These conversations would have been a little more substantive if the Magic had simply triggered as intended. It’s much easier to justify substantial change when you know you’re not good enough than when you think you can be. The Pistons series was distressing in this regard: enticing enough to force you to reconsider your most drastic plans, but not successful enough to require a course correction. With even the slightest glimpse of what their team could be, the Magic enter this offseason blinder than ever.
