Why shots have stopped falling for the Lakers, who face a potential historic collapse vs. Rockets

After Houston’s practice Tuesday, Jabari Smith Jr. called the Rockets “obviously the better team” in their first-round game against the Los Angeles Lakers. On paper, it’s an odd thing for a player to say while down 3-1 in a series that his team entered as a heavy favorite, and that’s the kind of bulletin board material that can rile up opposing players.

“I’m too old for this shit,” LeBron James said in response after Game 5.

It is difficult to argue too much with Smith’s view. The Lakers are still without Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves wasn’t great in his return in Game 5. Houston has played largely without Kevin Durant in this series and will do so again in Game 6, but as a much younger and deeper team, the Rockets have always been better equipped to play shorthanded. There’s a reason they came into this series as the heavy favorite.

Why the Lakers Thrived Early in the Series

A combination of bad luck and worse process doomed Houston early in the series. The Lakers shot 60% on non-restricted zone 2s in Game 1 while making more than half of their 3s. Then they shot 14 of 17 at the rim while flirting with 50% on 3s again in Game 2. Shooting variance happens.

This big game was deadly for a Rockets team that did little to prevent it. Houston didn’t really start chasing Luke Kennard defensively until Game 4, allowing the Laker to kill them the most to operate unhindered. They shot their own offense in the foot by limiting Reed Sheppard to 11 minutes in the second game. Without his shooting threat from the floor, the Lakers were free to double-team Durant in nine turnovers.

The shooting numbers evened out a bit in the third game. Houston’s young players weren’t ready for the moment, blowing a six-point lead with 30 seconds left — a nearly 97% win probability, by ESPN’s metric — before finally folding in overtime. But the signs of process improvement were there. Ime Udoka finally embraced his best players, creating the second-youngest roster in playoff history: Sheppard, Smith, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun and Tari Eason. This unit played just nine minutes in Games 1 and 2, winning them by seven points. The group played 44 minutes in games 3 and 4, winning them by 23 points. By Game 5, Houston had reduced its rotation to eight. No more ugly minutes from Clint Capela or Jae’Sean Tate.

What’s wrong in games 4 and 5

Just when the Rockets were pulling themselves together, the shooting chance turned. The Lakers shot 12 of 49 from deep in Games 4 and 5, but more worryingly, just 63% at the rim. That’s down 11.5% from their league-best rim field goal percentage during the regular season. The Lakers have never been a particularly efficient 3-point shooting team, but making those 3s early in the series forced Houston to defend them, which in turn opened up the paint.

That doesn’t happen anymore, which poses a dangerous math problem: The Lakers and Rockets played five games, and the Rockets attempted 69 more field goals in those five games. Barring more youthful indiscretions on Houston’s part, it’s unlikely the Lakers will start winning the possession battle anytime soon. The Rockets are by far the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA. Houston’s superior defensive athleticism, coupled with the ball-handling limitations the Lakers face when recovering Dončić, means the Rockets will simply have an easier time generating turnovers.

The Lakers cannot reasonably be expected to make more shots than the Rockets. Their path to winning a fourth game is to make more shots. There are some process-oriented fixes here. Kennard, after playing a significant role on the ball while Reaves was out, struggled to adjust to being stripped of the ball in Game 5. He didn’t make a single 3-pointer, but the Lakers didn’t involve him enough in the offense. They’re going to have to plan shots for him since he’s one of the only consistent jump shooters here, especially since Reaves is still getting his touch back after a long absence. They probably can’t count on another night of 5-of-7 3-point shooting from Marcus Smart.

The Rockets are taking notice of how the Lakers generated shots early in the series. They toned down the doubles and helped James as Game 5 progressed, a wise choice considering the burden on LeBron’s shoulders. He can certainly beat, say, Alperen Sengun off the dribble, but how many times can he allow himself to step on the gas like that at this age? He much prefers to dissect a defense as a passer and preserve his energy. James had seven assists in Game 5, but three came on the Laker’s first 10 points. Sheppard is probably the only Rocket who really can’t be left on an island against James from a physical standpoint, and if Houston’s defense maintains its integrity elsewhere, that forces James to generate more individual offense than he’d probably prefer. The Rockets took it easy in Game 5.

That’s not uncommon for any playoff series that reaches this point. By the sixth game, you’ve generally taken every punch an opponent can throw. You’ve adapted to the adjustments, and winning or losing simply depends on who has the better players and who has better luck. We can’t explain the latter. According to Smith, the first solution is probably settled for now. Unless James can turn back the clock and give the Lakers a vintage performance or Reaves can force Houston’s defense to help too much, Houston is younger, deeper and more talented before even factoring in Durant’s possible return for Game 6 or 7.

This is an unfortunate development for a Lakers team, no one expected to find themselves in this situation in the first place. If they had simply lost the series in five like most expected, no one would have batted an eye. They overperformed early through a combination of variance and strategy, but as the series has reached a new, perhaps appropriate, balance, they face the risk of potentially becoming the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead. Right now, the better team wins, and if the Lakers can’t claw their way to another upset, they’re headed for an embarrassing place in the history books.