Why the Strait of Hormuz will take a long time to reboot

Ships in the Strait of Hormuz may be the only ones not moving.

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Even as markets surged on hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal after President Donald Trump’s latest dramatic reversal, shipping through the critical waterway remained effectively halted Wednesday and is unlikely to fully resume until there is long-term stability, industry figures told NBC News.

Hundreds of ships and their crews remain stranded, with operators reluctant to risk a crossing amid maritime tension between Tehran and Washington.

Trump had planned to use the U.S. military to guide ships stuck in the strait for weeks as part of his “Project Freedom” initiative to break Tehran’s grip on the key oil chokepoint, which has strangled international shipping and sent energy prices soaring.

However, the operation was halted Tuesday evening, after less than 48 hours, with Trump citing progress in peace talks. Markets soared Wednesday morning following a report from Axios that the two sides were close to a one-page deal to end the war and possibly reopen the strait.

Trump said in a Truth Social article Wednesday that the strait could soon reopen “assuming Iran agrees to deliver what was agreed upon, which is perhaps a big assumption,” threatening to launch a new attack if Tehran does not agree to a deal.

There have been mixed messages from Iran on the status of the negotiations. Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesman for Iran’s national security commission, called the Axios report a “US wish list rather than reality”, while Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told the semi-official ISNA news agency that a US proposal was “still under consideration by Iran”.

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The other strait that could become a headache for the United States

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The Iranian navy said in an English-language message published on No timetable has been specified.

Leading figures in the shipping industry told NBC News that until there is a long-term agreement to end the uncertainty, backed by specific safeguards, the traffic jams shaking the global economy will not be resolved.

“Changes announced at short notice or surprising changes, such as the sudden suspension of ‘Project Freedom’, pose a challenge for shipowners trying to assess risks and plan their exit from the Persian Gulf,” Jakob Larsen, head of safety and security at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), which counts more than 2,000 shipping companies among its members, said on Wednesday.

Ship operators have been reluctant to allow their crews to transit given the risk of Iranian attack, and industry figures said for now they would at least exercise caution and not rush to change their risk assessment.

“Shipping decisions are ultimately driven by practical conditions on the water rather than political messages alone,” Bjorn Hojgaard, CEO of ship management company Anglo-Eastern Univan Group, told NBC News in an email Wednesday. “As a result, most prudent owners and operators are likely to remain cautious until they see a more stable, predictable and sustainable situation developing in practice.” »

Oil tankers were attacked last month after a rapid change in conditions that saw Iran initially declare the strait open as part of the ceasefire deal, only to close it a day later, citing the US-imposed blockade of its ports.

Hundreds of ships and thousands of sailors are still stuck in and around the strait, where traffic flowed freely for decades before the Iran war broke out. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said Tuesday that 22,500 sailors were stuck in the strait aboard more than 1,550 commercial ships.

An analysis by Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a maritime intelligence agency, showed on Wednesday that transit volumes had fallen from 44 to 36 crossings over the past week.

The morale of the crews, according to the press release, has been hit hard by the crisis.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the trapped sailors “easy targets,” hungry and vulnerable. At least 10 sailors have died since the war began, he told reporters in Washington on Tuesday.

Global shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd told NBC News on Wednesday that the strait remains closed to transit of its ships. “The only certainty is uncertainty,” company representative Hanja Maria Richter said in an email.

BIMCO’s Larsen said the suspension of “Project Freedom” shortly after its launch was a surprise and that while a few ships escaped unharmed, it was clear that uncoordinated transits with Iran involved significant risks.

BIMCO members report that crews are coping mentally and practically with the situation, he added, and that shipowners are still able to buy provisions and fuel locally, albeit at high prices.

“If there is demonstrable security on the transit route, if we get assurance that it has been cleared, then that should increase the confidence of ships, businesses and particularly seafarers to use that route out of the Gulf,” said John Stawpert, senior maritime director at the International Chamber of Shipping, the global trade association of ship owners and operators. “But we just don’t have that certainty right now. There are way too many unknowns.”

Any deal should include a commitment from Tehran not to attack civilian ships and a military protection mechanism that would reassure the shipping industry that the strait’s waters are mine-free, with a rapid reaction force in place, said maritime security expert and author Christian Bueger.

“What we need is a long-term agreement on how maritime security in the strait will be managed, because otherwise we could return to the same situation in three or five years,” he added.

Some shipping companies willing to take risks will begin moving their ships across the Strait quickly once a deal is announced, but it could take months or even years to return to the pre-war flow of traffic across the Strait, Bueger said.

“This will happen gradually, and it depends heavily on the risk assessment of the shipping companies, because they are the ones who make the decisions and must consult their crews to know if they are ready to take the risk,” he added. “We are therefore considering a gradual and staged reopening. »