Will Colombia summit kick-start the end of the fossil fuel era?

When almost all countries gathered in Brazil last November for the annual UN climate summit, COP30, hopes were high that they would develop a road map for the “transition away from fossil fuels” that they had previously called for. But objections from oil states prevented the final text from mentioning fossil fuels.

In response, Colombia and the Netherlands hosted a conference this week on the transition away from fossil fuels, inviting 57 countries to the coal export port of Santa Marta in Colombia. This “coalition of the willing” included climate stalwarts like the European Union and the United Kingdom, but also major oil exporters like Canada, Nigeria and Norway.

The summit sent a message that countries should step up efforts toward renewable energy rather than fossil fuels in response to the energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran. This represented a step toward determining how to achieve this, although some observers doubted that words alone could break the deadlock in international action.

Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who launched a scientific panel to advise participants on the transition, said the meeting “was not about negotiating, nor about debating whether or not we have a problem, but was entirely focused on how to accelerate and move forward in phasing out fossil fuels.” “This is clearly a first attempt to really move forward with implementation,” he said.

Although global investment is twice as large in low-carbon energy as in fossil fuels, the renewable energy boom has primarily responded to growing demand for electricity, rather than displacing oil, gas and coal. The world is currently on track for catastrophic warming of more than 2°C by 2100.

Summit participants will work on national roadmaps for moving away from fossil fuels ahead of a follow-up conference hosted next year by the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, with a pre-conference in Ireland.

Although voluntary, these roadmaps aim to integrate not only the fossil fuels a country consumes at home, but also those it exports abroad, which are not generally included in the COP climate goals.

In Santa Marta, leading academics unveiled a roadmap for Colombia to reduce energy emissions by 90 percent by 2050, which they say could ultimately generate economic benefits of $280 billion.

Also at the conference, France became the first high-income country to publish a roadmap for moving away from fossil fuels, outlining measures to expand public transport, electric vehicles and heat pumps while expanding solar, wind, hydro and nuclear power.

Although it does not appear to contain new policies, it set a deadline to end all fossil fuels, which would result in reduced consumption of coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and gas by 2050. Many countries only have deadlines to reach net zero, which can include fossil fuel emissions offset by carbon capture or carbon credits.

The conference will also work to eliminate fossil fuel preferences in the financial system, such as government hydrocarbon subsidies and the debt crisis that encourages low-income countries to drill for oil and gas rather than build capital-intensive renewable energy.

“There is a path that could be developed to stop subsidizing fossil fuels and redirect those funds” toward accessible climate finance, says Jeni Miller of the Global Alliance for Climate and Health. “This will only happen if enough countries actually discuss what needs to change.”

Simon Sharpe of the think tank S-Curve Economics, who negotiated for the UK at COP26, says the focus is absolutely necessary on debt, but a fossil fuel roadmap is not worth much as long as someone is willing to buy a country’s oil and gas. Rather than promising to somehow reduce fossil fuel supplies, countries should develop incentives to decarbonize lagging industries like steel, he argues.

“Diplomacy can help, but it has to focus on the right things and have the right participants,” Sharpe says, noting that large, growing economies like China, India and South Africa have not been invited to Santa Marta.

The ultimate value of the conference will be determined by how much of its ambition participants can translate into the deal negotiated at COP31 in Turkey, says Joanna Depledge of the University of Cambridge.

“Are you just preaching to the converted?” she said. “Or are you just trying even harder to get some sort of consensus within the COP? Because that’s sort of the value of the COP, is that you’re truly engaging everyone, including the fossil fuel exporters.”