3 ways investigators could solve the Nancy Guthrie kidnapping
The crowd of journalists camped around Tucson begins to thin.
It’s been nearly two weeks since Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos held a press conference to update the case.
And despite more than 20,000 tips, the investigation appears to be losing steam and the path to solving the Feb. 1 kidnapping of Nancy Guthrie may be narrowing.
Officials insist the investigation is still ongoing and they have some solid clues: His blood is on the doorstep. Her alleged captor grabbed the Nest camera from the front door, but not before capturing the armed man, wearing a ski mask and backpack, lurking on the porch and trying to cover the lens with his gloved hand. More than a dozen gloves have since been recovered from the surrounding community, one of which authorities say matched the one worn by the person in the video.
Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, disappeared from her Arizona home more than three weeks ago and there are still no persons of interest, no suspects or even a description of a kidnapper’s getaway car.
But so far, no DNA matches to known criminals have been found in the federal database.
Ransom notes arrived after the February 1 kidnapping, but no evidence that Guthrie was alive followed. The residents were arrested and quickly released as lines of investigation dried up.
However, experts believe that it is far too early to call this matter a “cold case” and note that a break could occur at any time.
But the paths to finding Guthrie and his captor are limited:
1. Forensic evidence
Investigators could make a scientific breakthrough using DNA evidence.
Sheriff’s investigators say they are still checking DNA from gloves recovered in the area and from Guthrie’s home, which was searched after the 84-year-old grandmother failed to show up to her church group on a Sunday and a missing person’s case became the nation’s biggest kidnapping drama in decades.
Nanos and his department said there were multiple strands of DNA mixed up in the home — meaning two or more people — and “there may be difficulty separating the DNA.”
A glove was found two miles from the scene, and authorities say it appears to match the pair worn by the masked man. But the DNA found on the glove did not match any in the Combined DNA Index System, which has more than 19 million samples from offenders nationwide.
Investigators did not say how much weight they gave to specific pieces of evidence. Yet experts say anything containing Guthrie’s DNA discovered outside the home may also contain her kidnapper’s DNA.
“We think we may have DNA that could be our suspect, but we won’t know until that DNA is separated, sorted, perhaps admitted to CODIS, perhaps through genetic genealogy,” Nanos told NBC News.
2. Family DNA
Genetic genealogy is best known for apprehending Golden State Killer Joseph James DeAngelo Jr., known for his serial rapes and murders in the 1970s and 1980s in California. The technique, known as forensic genetic genealogy, integrates public genealogy websites with DNA analysis. The National Association of District Attorneys. billed it as a “new era in crime solving.”
With FIGG, authorities can compare DNA collected from Guthrie’s home with publicly available databases containing the genetic profiles of millions of people who have donated them for family history research and other reasons. From there, investigators can sometimes find distant relatives to help piece together a family tree that could point to a suspect, said CeCe Moore, a genetic genealogist and co-founder of DNA Justice.
In the Golden State Killer case, investigators recovered old DNA processed in the Ventura County crime lab and linked to one of his crimes. Instead of processing it on CODIS, they used another part of the DNA to search for potential relatives of the unknown killer in ancestry databases.
If the person has a long family history in the United States, it’s a little easier for investigators to use genetic genealogy, Moore added, because it is more represented in the databases that law enforcement can access.
However, law enforcement does not have easy access to the approximately 50 million genetic profiles contained in the Ancestry.com, 23andMe and MyHeritage databases. These companies have barred authorities from accessing the information and said they would only release it if compelled to do so by a court order or warrant.
The GEDmatch, FamilyTreeDNA and DNA Justice databases are open to law enforcement but contain fewer than 2 million genetic profiles, Moore said.
“Cases involving Latino subjects are incredibly difficult,” she said. “Mexico is generally a little easier because we have more representation in the Mexico database than any other country in Latin America. But still, since we’re limited to the smallest databases, which have less than 2 million profiles, it’s going to be quite difficult, unless they get lucky.”
Investigators can also conduct family searches on the CODIS system, where relatives of the suspect may have been placed. Such a search is legal in Arizona.
3. Evidence breakthrough
Identify the alleged kidnapper: FBI agents have already identified the masked man’s backpack as a 25-liter Ozark Trail Hiker Pack sold at Walmart, which is now working to assist investigators. The masked assailant’s holster, slung between his legs, is what law enforcement calls a universal holster and is ill-suited for a much larger weapon. Retired LAPD Capt. Paul Vernon, who oversaw the homicide investigations, said the style of carrying may be familiar to some at a shooting range, and that investigators will study that method of carrying as a characteristic part of the man’s behavior. Once law enforcement identifies the man’s specific clothing, weapon and carrying holster, it can trigger someone’s memory and generate a vital clue, Vernon said.
On Monday, the Pima County Sheriff’s Department responded to reports that there may be video of the suspect at Guthrie’s door a day before he was kidnapped, saying it was inconclusive.
“We are aware that doorbell footage released earlier in the investigation shows a suspect in various attires, including with and without a backpack,” the department’s statement said. “There is no date or time associated with these images. Therefore, any suggestion that the photographs were taken on different days is purely speculative.”
Cell phone ping: Investigators, particularly those from the FBI’s technical units, will use geofencing to scour cell towers around Guthrie’s home for cell phone users. They will look to separate phones that are usually not there. Even if a kidnapper is carrying a disposable phone with prepaid minutes, also called a “burner,” investigators will want to identify the phone and see if they can trace its past movements. In a jewelry heist in Los Angeles County, investigators last year linked a cell phone taken from a traffic accident to the location of the heist and other crimes. Vernon said if you identify a phone, it’s possible to see if it rings along a route, such as along the highway from Tucson to the border.
Cameras: The investigation also continues to attempt to recover other data from cameras located around Nancy Guthrie’s home. Detectives asked residents in the Catalina Foothills neighborhood where Guthrie lived to report any suspicious behavior captured on security cameras during the entire month leading up to the kidnapping. Initially, they specifically requested all videos related to January 11th. Authorities have not said whether they have evidence that the perpetrator may have been watching the house before the kidnapping. But it’s not uncommon for burglars, thieves and burglars to be seen during crime surveillance in the weeks leading up to a crime, according to law enforcement experts.
