Week 3 NFL best bets, analysis, game picks and props

The value is value, no matter where – or how – you find it. And this is what we will aim to do every week in this space – find value.

Ben Solak was released this week, so Matt Bowen fills his own unique style.

Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives in the way they approach sports betting. Former NFL security, Bowen predicts positive clashes and game study winners and his understanding of the league. Walder is based on statistical models to select more anticipated value bets.

These weekly choices will not be limited to a certain type of bet. From differences and silver lines to totals or even defensive player accessories, a good price can be found anywhere.

The results will be followed throughout the season, with flat bets of a unit for each bet listed. As always, the chances come from ESPN Bet Sportsbook.

With that, let’s dive into week 3.

Note: Walder’s defensive bets will be added as they are available.

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Paris of play | Offensive accessories

Paris game

Dallas Cowboys in Chicago has total points over 50.5 (-115)

Dallas’ defense lacks impact players. You can see it on the band. And I look at a Bears unit which has trouble finding a rush to the pass, while the injuries are already underway in the second and third level. In two weeks, Dallas grants 6.4 yards per game (29th in the league), Chicago recorded at 7.2 (31st), and the two defenses abandon more than 30 points per game. Bad football. Dallas will have pass matches to operate in it, and I would not be surprised if Caleb Williams publishes his best numbers of the season Sunday at Soldier Field. Take the upper hand. – Bowen

Philadelphia Eagles to cover -3.5 (even) vs Rams of Los Angeles

We know that Eagles must create more explosive games in the passage game. During two weeks, Jalen Hurts finished 75.6% of his throws, but he has only 5.6 yards on average per attempt. Now there will be opportunities for schem against the safety and survival looks of RAMs this Sunday, so let’s go aj Brown and Devonta Smith. But I always take the birds here because of the offensive front and the racing game. Remember that Saquon Barkley produced more than 200 yards on the ground in each of the two games against RAMs last season. Win with the fundamental approach on the ground, while increasing the shooting game launches injuries. It’s Eagles football. – Bowen

Green Bay Packers (ML) at Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ML) against New York En Parlay Jets with two teams (-166)

I see Green Bay and Tampa Bay as locks this week, so insure them in one by called with two teams.

The rush to the Packers pass – with the addition of Micah Parsons – generated a pressure rate of 40% (third higher in the league), and they have eight bags (tied to the second plus). In addition, they have advantages of match on the edges compared to the offensive plated of the Browns. With the reduced mobility of Joe Flacco, it looks like a game where Green Bay dictates from a defensive point of view.

In Tampa Bay’s match, Justin Fields came out (cerebral concussion), we will therefore see Tyrod Taylor managing the offensive. However, Taylor and the jets must find an effective racing game, which is not easy at the defensive front of the BUCs. Through two games, Tampa allows only 3.3 YPC, which sets up their pressure packages on the third bottom. Press Tampa’s defense here and bet on Baker Mayfield to win the critical moments – again. – Bowen

Offensive player accessories

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Why by Andre Swift is an easy start in fantasy against cowboys

Mike Clay explains why Andre Swift is an easy start in fantasy while the Bears face the cowboys of week 3.

Ceedee Lamb to spend more than 82.5 reception yards (-115)

LAMB has exceeded the reception brand of the 100 yards in the two games played this season, and the Bears will be without the corner No. 1 Jaylon Johnson and the corner of the Kyler Gordon location due to injuries. The lamb will have advantages of match both alignments of the location and limits. And if the bears roll with a heavier zone script, search for the lamb to find the open grass as a capture and race target for the quarter-rear Dak Prescott. – Bowen

George Pickens to mark at any time (+130)

Resons with the Chicago-Dallas match here and bet on Pickens to find the goal area. Pickens caught his first hit of the season in the victory of week 2 against the Giants, and he already saw five targets from the goal area in his first two games. With its vertical stretch capacity, Pickens can detach on shooting throws, or cowboys can isolate it in the low red zone. Take the bet compared to a secondary Beat-Up Bears. – Bowen

Tyler Lockett to record more than 50 meters of reception (+900)

The start of the season was so ugly for lockett that the style AP dictates that I still have to explain its production numbers: four targets, two receptions, nine yards. But while his playing time is down the place where he was in Seattle last year, he is still a decent amount on the field. Lockett has covered roads on 60% of Tennessee decreases this season. And the target here, 50 reception yards, really does not ask that a lot. I understand that it was a different situation a year ago, but Lockett reached 50 reception yards five Time last year, and we now get +900 to do it on Sunday. This line is too pessimistic on the veteran receiver, according to my model of reception yards. That makes the price right here +405. – Walder

Cedric Tillman records more than 90 reception yards (+750)

Tillman plays a ton, traveling 92% of Cleveland Browns decreases (even slightly more often than Jerry Jeudy). It also operates high -value roads – deep cruisers and excavations that tend to produce higher sites by route. Admittedly, Tillman’s sites by route run on the increase in playing time have not been inspiring (0.8), but taking into account the playing time it gets and that the Browns will almost certainly play from behind and therefore launch a good amount, it’s too good to pass. My model is CE +381. – Walder

D’Andre Swift to exceed 2.5 receptions (-125)

We are 3-1 on these bets, and I do not see any reason why we should not continue to roll. The premise is simple: when the defenses play the cover of the area, they allow the receptions to run almost twice more frequently as when they play the coverage of man. The theory here is that it is not completely cooked on the betting market, and we therefore support the runners in the face of the defenses of the area and the discoloration of the defenses of man. During two weeks, the defense that stands out for this is absolutely cowboys; They play zone coverage at a massive rate of 86% (no team has played the area more than 72% in last season). So, the reception of Swift is an easy choice in week 3. – Walder

Treveyon Henderson to record more than 20 yards receiver (-135)

Against a defense of the steelers which abandoned an average of 25.5 yards receiving runners, search for Henderson to see targets on screens and factors, while the coordinator Josh McDaniels for the recruit on the rear field will come out to attack the seconds on the cover. Henderson produced at least 24 yards by receiving the two games played this season, so I like this bet to strike on Sunday. – Bowen

Tyler Warren can more than 50.5 yards upon receipt (-115)

Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen has a dedicated plan for Warren in the itinerary tree. Warren produced at least 75 yards receiving each of its first two professional games, with at least seven targets in both. And Steichen defines Warren as an option on several levels for the quarter Daniel Jones – with room to run after taking. It can rumble in the open field. Take the game of week 3 against Tennessee. – Bowen

Joe Flacco will exceed 38.5 pass attempts (-110)

I break a new model for this category, a relatively simple logistical regression which, I hope, will let us find values ​​of attempted pass. And a key factor that he considers is the success rate of NFL’s NFL statistics on expectations – the rate to which teams pass after having accountable situational factors such as score, drop and distance – on both offenses And defense. And no team has a bass opponent Success rate on expectations that Green Bay (-18%), which implies that packers probably induce races with their staff and / or alignment. And it’s not just a small sample either; Last year, under the same defensive coordinator (Jeff Hafley), Green Bay ranked third in the same category. – Walder

Trevor Lawrence will go from 0.5 ints launched (+115)

I am actually at -117 here, so it is a decent difference in a market where my model is generally quite close to the dimensions of Paris. An obvious reason why we get +115 on the Under: Lawrence launched three choices this season. The choices are fluid, however, and we must therefore really look at the quarter of the Jacksonville jaguars through a longer lens. Last season, he recorded an interception rate of 2.2%, slightly higher than the league average of 1.9% but barely an aberrant value. Another factor that stands out here is how the jaguars were, ranking 25th in success rate compared to the expectations of the NFL. This limits the number of throws that Lawrence should make and, in turn, reduces the chances of an interception. – Walder

Others to consider: