Antarctica could warm 1.4 times faster than the rest of the Southern Hemisphere in the coming decades, study finds
Antarctica could warm 1.4 times faster than the rest of the Southern Hemisphere over the coming decades, leading to extreme sea level rise and devastating polar ecosystems, according to a new modeling study.
This acceleration of warming Antarctic Compared to other regions, an amplification known as Antarctica would likely occur if global temperatures reached 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels, the study found. The world has already warmed up 2F (1.1C)and the rate at which new temperature records are being set is intensifying. If emissions stay around current levels, we will likely reach 3.6 F of warming around 2050 – but if emissions continue to increase, we could reach this threshold around 2040.
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“For many years, Antarctica appeared isolated from the effects of rising global temperatures,” Ariane Purichlecturer and climate scientist at Monash University in Australia who was not involved in the research, told Live Science in an email. “In this new study, the authors propose that long-term warming of the ocean surface around Antarctica, projected by climate models for the coming century, leads to an amplification of Antarctica.”
Arctic amplification has been documented for years, with temperatures in the region rising about four times faster than the global average over the past five decades. The main mechanism driving Arctic amplification is the ice-albedo feedback, where melting snow and ice accelerates warming because water reflects less heat back to space. Where there was once reflective sea ice, there is now an ocean that absorbs more heat from the sun. This melts more ice and snow, exposing even more heat-absorbing water.
Antarctica behaves differently, in part because swirling ocean and wind currents protect the continent from rising air and sea temperatures elsewhere in the world. Unlike the Arctic, most of Antarctica experienced only gradual warming and no decline in sea ice until about a decade ago, Purich said.
But then, between 2014 and 2016, Antarctica lost as much sea ice as the Arctic did in four decades. The continent hasn’t bounced back sincesaid Purich, with exceptionally low extent of winter sea ice recorded in 2023, in particular.
“We are now seeing abrupt and very rapid changes in Antarctica,” Purich said. “With Antarctica’s low sea ice coverage, it is now possible that the ice-albedo feedback will begin to exacerbate the warming of southern high latitudes.”
But scientists have not yet directly observed this amplification signal. So for the new study, Chinese researchers analyzed climate model data to determine whether an Antarctic amplification could occur under a 3.6 F warming scenario. Using polar amplification simulations, as well as models developed for the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the researchers explored the impact of continued global warming on Antarctic temperatures.
Their conclusions – published on December 22, 2025 in the journal Geophysical research letters – suggest that Antarctica will warm faster than the Southern Hemisphere as a whole under future climate conditions.
The researchers also discovered the main driver of Antarctica’s amplification: Unlike the Arctic, where ice albedo feedback is a key driving force, Antarctica will warm primarily through acceleration of heat release of the surrounding ocean.
The amplification of the situation in Antarctica may not have happened yet, but the effects of climate change have already become apparent, Purich said. Over the past decade, scientists have observed drastic decline in sea ice in Antarctica And catastrophic reproductive failures in emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) due to melting.
“These things are happening now, and every fraction of warming we can avoid counts,” Purich said.
The new study is model-based, which in the case of Antarctica means the results could underestimate future amplification, Purich said. Climate models are limited in their ability to predict some warming mechanisms, and it remains unclear exactly how Antarctica’s circumpolar currents will affect temperature changes.
“Together, this raises the possibility that climate models are underestimating the potential and magnitude of Antarctic amplification that will emerge over the coming decades and centuries,” Purich said.
Zhang, Z., Wang, S., Chen, D., Li, X., Dou, T., Xiao, C., Chen, W., Qin, D., and Ding, M. (2025). Future sea surface temperature a key driver of Antarctic warming. Geophysical research letters, 52(24). https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118958
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