Bismuth’s haredi draft bill won’t change enlistment, IDI expert tells ‘Post’

An expert from the Israel Democracy Institute warns that MK Boaz Bismuth’s ultra-Orthodox plan offers no real application and will not improve enrollment rates.

Nothing will change in Likud MK Boaz Bismuth’s bill to impose ultra-Orthodox conscription in the Israeli army, which is currently being presented simply for the government’s sake, “to buy time,” said Shlomit Ravitsky Tur-Paz of the Israel Democracy Institute. The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.

“The numbers aren’t going up, they’re actually going down,” Tur-Paz said, speaking about the outline of the bill he spearheaded and which was released Thursday.

As the Knesset prepares Monday for a long-awaited marathon of Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee (FADC) meetings to advance the bill, Tur-Paz spoke to the Post about key issues in the updated bill.

Progress on the bill was previously halted due to the lack of a “green light” from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties in the Knesset.

Both ultra-Orthodox parties left the government in July following negotiations on the bill, which were previously led by former FADC chairman MK Yuli Edelstein (Likud).

Edelstien was ousted from his role as committee chairman after the ultra-Orthodox parties left the government, allowing Bismuth to lead the new developments of the bill, establishing a new plan with significant changes from Edelstien’s version.

Tur-Paz explained that the main flaw in the current plan was that it failed to create real incentives to impose ultra-Orthodox conscription.

“The only sanctions that will come immediately are weak sanctions that apply until the age of 23,” she said.

Defendants will not be able to leave Israel before the age of 23

She also noted that the two main sanctions until the age of 23 are that draft dodgers will not be able to leave the country or have access to a driver’s license. Still, she said such sanctions were unlikely to change behavior and would not be strict enough.

While there are harsher sanctions that come into effect later that restrict the ability to buy homes, that is also not effective enough, as haredim can simply “wait until age 26,” the year the sanctions expire for all holdouts in Bismuth’s plan, Tur-Paz said.

A central element of the plan is the definition of “first year of writing.” Under the proposal, the first enrollment period begins once the law takes effect and continues until June 30, 2027.

This timetable could significantly delay the implementation of ultra-Orthodox conscription, Tur-Paz warned.

“Because it’s [haredi enlistment] is supposed to start now, and this will only be verified at the end of the 2026 recruitment year, which ends at the end of June, only then will we see how many young haredim have enlisted. Only then will they apply sanctions. Only after that, when we get to the numbers.

She described the outline as a way for the government to “buy time” and delay the process of developing legislation.

She noted that ultra-Orthodox media outlets have expressed support for the bill, indicating that ultra-Orthodox conscription enforcement is not strict enough.

Another fundamental problem with the bill’s outline is how it indicates who is included in the definition of being haredi, Tur-Paz explained.

According to the outline of the bill, anyone who studied in an ultra-Orthodox institution between the ages of 14 and 18 can fall into the category of ultra-Orthodox, even if they later left the community.

This exaggerated categorization, she said, results in low actual enlistment numbers masked by broader definitions.

Another problem with the bill is that national service can count for 10 percent of the ultra-Orthodox enlistment quota, further reducing the number of combat soldiers needed by the IDF, Tur-Paz said.

MK Dan Illouz (Likud) echoed some of Tur-Paz’s concerns about the bill, presenting a 10-point plan on Sunday to strengthen the bill and ensure real enforcement of ultra-Orthodox conscription in the Israeli military.

Bismuth’s proposal is expected to face significant political obstacles, both in committee discussions and in the Knesset plenum, as several coalition members have said they will not support the bill. Other opponents of the bill are Edelstein and Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel.

Meanwhile, Channel 12 reported that Likud had contacted the Arab Raam party to help with upcoming votes for the bill in the Knesset plenum. On Sunday, Likud rejected the report entirely, calling it “completely fake news.”

“This is another baseless fabrication, part of the campaign against the new conscription law,” the party said.

Likud redoubled its support for the bill, calling it historic and saying it would “lead “for the first time since the establishment of the state to the conscription of approximately 23,000 haredim,” [enlisted] over three and a half years.

Tur-Paz stressed the urgency of the manpower crisis within the IDF.

“There is a huge shortage of men,” she said, noting that the army has “an immediate need for 12,000 recruits.”

Earlier this month, the high court ruled that the state cannot simultaneously avoid recruiting tens of thousands of yeshiva students and continue to fund their institutions. He ordered the government to develop a real implementation plan within 45 days.

Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara told Netanyahu this week that the decision demanded an immediate end to stipends for non-military students and urged him to form an inter-ministerial team to design a credible sanctions structure.

Sarah Ben-Nun contributed to this report.