Are we heading for ‘super El Nino’ – and what could we expect? | Climate crisis

The phenomenon known as “El Niño” is very likely to occur this summer – and it could be unusually strong. A so-called “super El Niño” could amplify extreme weather events and push global temperatures to record highs next year, experts say.

Meteorologists are closely monitoring climate trends developing in the Pacific Ocean, which will help make more accurate predictions about what will happen in the coming year.

A strong El Niño would put 2027 in contention to break world heat records and could produce a range of devastating effects, from heavy rainstorms to drought depending on the world’s regions.

Although it’s not “a piece of cake,” climate scientist and Climate Central media director Tom Di Liberto said at a press briefing Thursday that the makings of El Niño are there. Spring forecasts can’t account for unexpected changes that might occur over the summer, he added, but “the risk is high enough to be concerned.”

Here’s what you need to know:

What is El Niño?

The ocean and the atmosphere are inextricably linked. That’s why forecasters look closely at ocean temperatures and conditions to help predict future weather trends around the world.

El Niño is characterized by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is one of three states observed by scientists: La Niña, conversely, occurs when sea surface temperatures are below average, and neutral conditions are defined when neither El Niño nor La Niña are present and sea surface temperatures are near average.

These three states together form the “El Niño-Southern Oscillation” (Enso), which tends to develop in spring in the Northern Hemisphere and moves every three to seven years, according to the U.S. National Weather Service. Sea surface warming and cooling during El Niño and La Niña can vary by 1°C to 3°C and have enormous effects on precipitation, drought, heat and climate disasters in different regions, depending on which direction they go.

During Niño years, the winds that pushed warm waters westward soften or change direction, allowing surface waters in this part of the Pacific to warm. Characterized by temperatures at least 0.5°C above normal, these conditions have a massive impact on the weather and often push global temperatures to new highs.

Climatologists are quick to point out that each event is unique and that there is considerable variability between them, in terms of intensity and outcomes. But Enso’s forecasts can help people around the world prepare for coming changes in extreme weather – an essential tool in a warming world.

Conditions are currently transitioning from La Niña to neutral, according to the latest forecast from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center released April 6, but models show there is a 62 percent chance that El Niño will emerge this summer and persist at least through the end of the year.

How will El Niño affect weather events?

Although many factors create weather, El Niño can create considerable atmospheric upheaval. It changes jet streams and reverses precipitation patterns, fueling more violent storms in some parts of the world, while drying out others. It also has the power to cause temperatures to rise even higher, at least briefly.

The 2015 super El Niño caused severe drought in Ethiopia, water supply shortages in Puerto Rico and broke records after triggering a severe hurricane season in the central North Pacific, according to an analysis by U.S. federal scientists.

The cycle tends to create drought and heat in Australia, around southern and central Africa, India and parts of South America, including the Amazon rainforest. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall could affect the southern United States, parts of the Middle East, and central and southern Asia.

The deluges could come as a welcome relief to thirsty U.S. states, hoping that water supply shortages caused by this year’s huge snowpack can be offset by a strong summer monsoon and a wetter winter next year. But as Di Liberto pointed out, these dry conditions have been largely fueled by heat, and these regions are less likely to get any respite from rising temperatures.

“It is important to note that when we talk about drought, it is largely due to temperature and not precipitation,” he said.

Experts also said that most extremely dry basins will not be able to recover after a wet season. This is especially true in the southwestern United States, where some reservoirs are at their lowest.

“Just because we expect a large-scale change in climate doesn’t mean we’re going to see drought completely erased,” said Dr. Joel Lisonbee, a senior associate scientist at the University of Colorado Cooperative Research Institute in Boulder. “It would have to be exceptionally humid,” he added. “It would also mean flooding, and the resulting destruction and potential loss of life.” »

Why are scientists talking about a “super El Niño”?

A “super” El Niño simply means a stronger phenomenon. These are rare events generally defined by sea surface temperatures reaching at least 2°C. This has only happened a few times since 1950 and temperatures have only exceeded 2.5°C once.

The more they increase, the more likely it is that the impacts of El Niño will be amplified. Noaa scientists gave a one-in-four chance of this happening by fall or winter, with the caveat that spring forecasts are sometimes confusing. Transitions in conditions that occur in the spring can make results a little more difficult to predict. But there are already key indicators that a strong or super El Niño could be forming.

Dr. Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, wrote this week that there was “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years.” Dr. Andy Hazelton, research associate at the University of Miami, wrote: “All models and observations point in the same direction: a very strong El Niño with significant impacts on global climate this year. »

How likely is this to happen?

Although the models show a good chance of something significant developing, experts have also pointed out that these results tend to be higher due to overall warming trends affecting baseline levels.

“We have this underlying warming trend that makes our El Niños appear larger than they actually are and our La Niñas appear smaller than they actually are because everything is warming up,” Lisonbee said. This year, Noaa began using a new model to better identify what might be an anomaly and what is linked to global warming, but other tools still rely on historical data.

Spring also tends not to provide the clearest picture, due to the natural transitions that occur at this time of year. “Even though our models are currently predicting El Niño and some models are predicting a very strong one, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the forecast change over the next few months,” Lisonbee said. “We call this the spring predictability barrier, and the models tend to change significantly from one model run to the next.”

However, the likelihood of El Niño developing later this year remains high. It remains to be seen how strong it will be. But as conditions begin to coalesce around the possibility of radical change, officials around the world are pushing to prepare.

“The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and played a role in the record global temperatures we experienced in 2024,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a written statement, adding that officials were closely monitoring conditions to inform key decisions.

“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avoid millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives,” she said.