How Democrats’ redistricting luck ran out: From the Politics Desk
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In today’s edition, we explain how the redistricting tables quickly turned against Democrats. Plus, Kristen Welker explores what President Donald Trump’s continued hold on the GOP could mean for the party as the midterm season heats up.
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—Adam Wollner
How Democrats’ redistricting luck ran out
By Adam Wollner
Two and a half weeks ago, the Democrats were on the rise. Their ambitious plan to redraw Virginia’s congressional map was narrowly approved by voters, bringing the national redistricting battle to a tie.
But that dynamic changed in the blink of an eye following a series of unfortunate events for the party — culminating with today’s Virginia Supreme Court decision blocking that map — that left Republicans with a clear advantage on the gerrymandering front as they aim to protect their narrow majority in the House of Representatives this fall.
Let’s review how we got here.
Supreme Court: A week after Virginia’s redistricting referendum, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a highly anticipated ruling that states can almost never take race into account when drawing district boundaries, upending Louisiana’s congressional map and endangering majority-minority districts represented by Democrats across the country.
Florida: Later in the day, Florida’s Republican-led Legislature gave final approval to a redrawn map designed to allow the party to pick up up to four House seats, essentially canceling out Democrats’ hoped-for net gain in Virginia.
Louisiana: The next day, Republican officials moved to delay Louisiana’s May 16 congressional primary, and earlier this week the U.S. Supreme Court said its ruling on the state’s map could take effect immediately. That means Louisiana lawmakers can now pass a new map that targets at least one of the state’s two Democratic-held districts, in time for the midterm elections.
Tennessee: The GOP-controlled Tennessee Legislature on Thursday passed a redrawn map that splits the state’s only majority-black district, represented by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen. This puts Republicans in position to win another seat through redistricting.
South Carolina: Republican state lawmakers left the door open this week for a redrawing of South Carolina’s current map, which has just one district held by a Democratic Republican. Jim Clyburn.
Virginia: This morning, the Virginia Supreme Court overturned the results of the special election that would have led to a new map including four additional Democratic-friendly districts. The court ruled that Democrats did not follow proper procedure in putting the constitutional amendment on the ballot.
Alabama: Governor. Kay Ivey signed a law this afternoon that would hold new primary elections in districts that would be affected by a possible new congressional map. Alabama Republicans are awaiting a response from the courts if they are now allowed to use a previously drawn map featuring one majority-minority district favoring Democrats rather than the current two.
Conclusion : Based on new maps passed over the past year, Republicans could gain as many as 14 seats, compared to six for Democrats.
Democrats need to flip three seats to take control of the House in November, and the political winds generally continue to blow in their direction. But the progress Republicans are poised to make on redistricting will at least guarantee a tougher fight.
🗺️ Related reading: Redistricting pits California Republican elected officials against each other in a fight for survival, by Ben Kamisar
Trump’s influence on the GOP is a double-edged sword for the party
Analysis by Kristen Welker
Last week brought new reminders to the president Donald TrumpThe GOP’s hold on the GOP — and how it can be a double-edged sword for a party trying to hold on to its congressional majorities.
Indiana’s Republican primary was a landslide victory for Trump and his allies, who ousted five of the seven targeted state senators who had blocked his redistricting campaign. Although these Republicans told us they had no regrets after opposing Trump, the message sent by Republican primary voters was clear.
“Many of us were surprised by the strength of Trump’s support,” the senator said. Greg Walker told me this week on “Meet the Press NOW,” adding that “it was meant to be a clear message of retaliation.”
He added a disclaimer: “Do you think Indiana serves best when we are under duress and threat? Or do you think we serve best as legislators when we are allowed to have our own cognitive abilities, to reason and use our best judgment?”
Trump didn’t just flex his political muscles in Indiana. He recently moved to reduce the number of Kentucky senators by endorsing Rep. Andy Barrencouraging businessman Nate Morris to give up despite the support of Trump’s main allies. And he set the stage for further tests of his strength in primaries in Louisiana and Kentucky later this month.
Even though things are rosy for Team Trump in the Republican primaries, the warning signs for this fall’s general election environment remain clear, even as Republicans appear to have gained the upper hand in the redistricting wars after the Virginia Supreme Court overturned a new Democratic-drawn map.
Trump’s approval rating is consistently below 40%, including 37% among Americans in two new polls released last week. And polls continue to show that Americans are deeply frustrated with the president on economic issues. A recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that 61 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and a similar share say the economy isn’t working well for them and they blame Trump for the recent rise in gas prices.
That poll, along with the fact that the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm elections, underscores the challenges Republicans will face in November.
Tune in to “Meet the Press” this Sunday, when I speak with the Secretary of Energy. Chris Wright and the senator. Cory BookerDN.J. I will also be joined by the Democratic governor of Maryland. Wes Moore and the Republican governor of Arkansas. Sarah Huckabee Sanders for the final installment of our “Common Ground” series.
🗞️ Other news of the day
- 🧳 Jobs Report: The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, a better-than-expected figure, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%. Read more →
- ➡️ War in Iran: The United States and Iran exchanged fire yesterday near the Strait of Hormuz, adding new tension to the ceasefire and raising questions about negotiations to end the war. Read more →
- 📈 New frontiers: The Justice Department and the nation’s top commodities market regulator are investigating a series of oil market transactions just before major policy announcements by Trump and Iranian officials. Read more →
- 🔵Watch 2028: representative Ro KhannaDemocrat, California, is set to turn to three states this week to promote his “new economic patriotism agenda” — a series of policy ideas aimed at reviving America’s manufacturing industry while remaining true to its progressive identity. Read more →
- 🛸 In a galaxy far, far away: The Pentagon has begun releasing “never before seen” UFO files that the government has kept for decades. Read more →
That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.
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