Politicians ‘waltz’ around meaning of Tennessee special election results

Democrats invaded Tennessee and attempted to win the seat held by former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., this week.

Winning special elections for House seats is a delicate dance. But Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps, R-Tenn., beat Democrat Aftyn Behn by nine points.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., noted that the Cook Political Report rates this district favoring the GOP by about 10 points.

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“It’s not an R-plus-25. The president won it by 22 points. It’s actually considered a lightly Republican district. So winning by nine points is almost exactly what we would expect,” Johnson said.

In other words, the Republicans won the special election by the precise margin expected. That’s even as Republicans worry that a Democratic surge could serve as a weather vane for the party’s popularity, whether there are gaps in the Trump coalition and what the path forward will look like in the 2026 midterms.

“The Democrats invested millions of dollars. They were really trying to set up the scenario of some sort of wave. That’s not the case. We just proved that it wasn’t the case,” Johnson said.

Republican Representative-elect Matt Van Epps delivers his victory speech at the Millennium Hotel Maxwell House Nashville on December 2, 2025, in Nashville, Tennessee. (Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)

Maybe. Maybe not. Special elections are special. A snapshot of where a given constituency is at a given time – often without the benefit of the regular electorate, who turn out in November every two years. That’s why House special elections are sometimes closer than you might expect in general elections. And the party out of power often spends considerable sums of money in these contests to win.

At least it forces the other party to also spend a lot of money. But trying to make a race seem important undermines the base and creates the illusion that things aren’t going well for the other side. Maybe people think voters have had enough and are demanding change.

A special election is a lot like checking the score of a football game in the second quarter. Maybe a team’s passing game is really clicking. This could dictate the outcome. But we have not yet seen the two escapees in the second half. Not to mention the sloppy snap at the field goal and blocked punt.

Lots of things can happen.

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Frankly, flipping seats in House special elections is a daunting task. The party that doesn’t have power in the House or the opposite party that occupies the White House often makes it a race. This may signal weakness in the ruling party or even the president as the next election approaches. One of the best examples of this came in 2017. House Democrats nearly overturned four special elections with strong Republican seats stretching from Montana to Kansas to South Carolina to Georgia.

But Democrats didn’t win any of those seats.

However, Democrats have made a few closer than you think.

In fact, one of the best examples involves Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kan.

President Donald Trump nominated former Rep. Mike Pompeo, Republican of Kan., to serve as CIA director and, later, secretary of state. Estes ran to succeed Pompeo. Pompeo won his district with 61% of the vote in 2016. Estes held off a challenge from Democrat James Thompson, beating his opponent by six points and receiving 52% of the vote.

Despite the defeat, Democrats and political observers noted Thompson’s relative strength in the special election. Many wondered if this was a foreshadowing of a 2018 Democratic wave.

President Donald Trump and Matt Van Epps (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images; Nicole Hester/The Tennessean/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

But the Kansas district is a Republican stronghold. Democrats took control of the House in the midterms in 2018. However, Estes was re-elected the following year by nearly 19 points.

And despite the noise about special elections, there have actually only been four major “flips” in special elections to the House of Representatives in the last 18 years. And one of those special elections in Hawaii was an anomaly where the Republican won in a three-way contest while two Democrats siphoned votes from each other.

But back to Tennessee.

Could Democrats have had more success with a moderate candidate? Behn was progressive. A centrist might have had a better chance of winning a district like this, especially considering the success of Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., last month.

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Could a Van Epps victory encourage other Republicans to resign? The House majority will be 220-214 once Johnson is sworn in on Thursday. But some in the Republican Party are eager to leave. They may think there’s enough cushion, even if Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., leaves in January.

Fox learns that several Republicans in the House of Representatives want to head out. Some are upset that the White House controls the entire agenda and that Johnson is keeping the House at arm’s length for weeks during the government shutdown. Another factor: President Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine.

Moderate Republicans could look at the Tennessee result and insist that the party address health care in the coming weeks. This is a looming factor given that Democrats refused to vote this fall to defund the government for health care. It’s also possible that moderate Republicans in California and New York view the Democrats’ relative strength in this contest as a sign that they will face a tough re-election next year. As we said, Democrats flipped the House seven years ago after coming close in several special elections.

Republican candidate Matt Van Epps delivers a victory speech after winning a special congressional election in Tennessee’s 7th District, December 2, 2025, in Nashville, Tennessee. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

Then there’s redistricting and gerrymandering. Van Epps’ victory underscores the idea that drawing favorable lines for your party works.

But this redistricting took place several years ago. Tennessee Republicans drew former Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., a Blue Dog and all other Democrats from a Nashville-area district. The GOP split Nashville and its suburbs, diluting the Democratic vote in several GOP districts. That served as a safety valve to secure a GOP victory Tuesday. This also explains the risks of the current wave of redistricting by both parties. Additionally, it highlights how redrawing the lines can make some competitions tighter than they should be.

Both sides are now dancing over their interpretations of what unfolded Tuesday. Republicans say that’s why they’ll hold the House next year. Democrats say they won – even though they lost. And that’s why they will take over the House in the midterms.

Call it the Tennessee “waltz.”

But special elections are looming in Texas, New Jersey and Georgia.

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These seats are unlikely to be in play.

So don’t expect Texas Two-Step, Garden State Stomp or The Night The Lights Went Out In Georgia.