Premier League title race: Arsenal take advantage as sloppy City drop points
The Premier League title race took another turn on Wednesday as Arsenal extended their lead at the top of the table to seven points, their path to their first Premier League trophy in two decades clearer after Manchester City surprisingly dropped points against Nottingham Forest.
City dominated at home to relegation-threatened Forest and took the lead twice, statistically well placed to emerge from the match with a victory. Despite only hitting six of their 21 shots on target, generating 2.21 expected goals to Forest’s 0.97, the visitors had a response every time City took the lead. Pep Guardiola’s side initially took the lead through Antoine Semenyo in the 31st minute, although Morgan Gibbs-White eventually equalized for Forest in the 52nd with an impressive backheel. Rodri restored City’s lead 10 minutes later, only for Elliott Anderson to score the final goal of the game in the 76th minute.
City fired seven shots after Anderson’s equalizer made it 2-2, generating 1.19 expected goals along the way. They came close to the winner in the 99th minute thanks to a close-range shot from Savinho, with Murillo’s goal-line clearance depriving Guardiola’s side of three points and guaranteeing Forest a valuable point that would keep them out of the relegation zone in the tiebreakers.
“We did everything, we could do a little better, but it is what it is,” Guardiola told the BBC after the match. “In general, there were a lot of good things. I would like to concede less, but it’s not about analyzing a specific action. I never point fingers at my players. We did everything, we had chances at the end and in the first half. The momentum. But something always happens and we couldn’t win.”
It was a day of contrasts in the title race, with a very different scenario unfolding for Arsenal at Brighton and Hove Albion. Bukayo Saka marked his 350th Arsenal appearance with a ninth-minute goal, riding his luck as the shot took not one but two deflections off the inbound Brighton players. Otherwise, the Gunners were arguably second in many ways on Wednesday – they gave away the ball entirely to Brighton and took just seven shots in total and generated just 0.47 expected goals, their lowest expected goals total in the Premier League this season. Brighton had 11 shots, but collected just 0.8 expected goals in the process, thanks to the Gunners’ well-known defensive resilience.
Brighton manager Fabian Hurzeler criticized the tactics deployed by his Arsenal counterpart Mikel Arteta in his post-match comments and singled out Gunners goalkeeper David Raya for wasting time.
“I ask a question. Have you ever seen in a Premier League match a goalkeeper fall three times? No? We shouldn’t waste too many words on this,” Hurzeler said before continuing. “At the end of the day it’s about the rules. If the Premier League, the referee, allows everything, then it’s difficult. [Arsenal] make their own rules, regardless of how they play. I will never be that kind of manager who tries to win that way. I want to develop players, players who continue to improve and play football on the field. Ultimately every team will get by and waste time, but there has to be a limit and the limit has to be set by the Premier League, by the referees. For now, they can do whatever they want. If I ask everyone here in the room “did you really enjoy that football game?” “, I’m sure one of them is raising their arm because they’re a big Arsenal fan. Besides that, no chance.”
Premier League table
| Position | Team | General practitioner | W | D | L | Girlfriend | Georgia | DG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 59 | 22 | +37 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 59 | 27 | +32 |
Schedule remaining in Premier League title race
Arsenal
- March 14: Everton (m)
- April 11: Bournemouth (m)
- April 19: Manchester City (a)
- April 25: Newcastle United (m)
- May 2: Fulham (h)
- May 9: West Ham United (a)
- May 17: Burnley (m)
- May 24: Crystal Palace (a)
Manchester City
- March 14: West Ham United (a)
- April 12: Chelsea (a)
- April 19: Arsenal (m)
- April 26: Burnley (a)
- May 2: Everton (a)
- May 9: Brentford (m)
- May 17: Bournemouth (a)
- May 24: Aston Villa (m)
- TBD: Crystal Palace (m)
Where does the Premier League title race go from here?
Arsenal’s seven-point lead will be tough to beat, but City have two things to hang their title hopes on: they have a game in hand against Crystal Palace, who have been in average form this season, and still have to host the Gunners. If City won both of these games, their seven-point deficit would be reduced to just one point, but even in that scenario they would still need help while keeping pace with their rivals along the way.
Both teams have favorable schedules to close out the season and will primarily face mid-table teams or those battling for relegation, with the latter group of matches perhaps being more intriguing. They each have games against Burnley and West Ham United on the schedule, two teams who are currently stuck in the drop zone, with West Ham perhaps more likely to do so – they are level on points with Forrest as things stand and have just two defeats in their last seven league games.
